Uptrend's Account Talk

[Khotso]

View attachment 18369

Nice Chart! Pretty too!

 

[jpcavin]

Yes, very pretty!

 

[Uptrend]

Thanks everyone! Here is todays update.

 

[Uptrend]

 

[Uptrend]

The trading channel up, is intact on the emini SP 500 futures in the hourly timeframe. So, there is an up bias at the present time for the very short timeframe. It was breached a little bit last week. Let's see if this morphs into something larger, or not.

 

[Uptrend]

Todays trend update.

 

[Uptrend]

The I fund is a must sell condition, as is the F fund. The C and S funds are "at risk.", but not a confirmed sell yet.

 

[Uptrend]

Here is todays cube. Notice I added Strength and took off the US dollar. The US dollar is really buried in the I fund trade. Hope this helps. There will be more commentary on the cube later, when I get time. Gotta run---work calls.

 

[FAAM]

Uptrend, greetings from a fellow Northwesterner from Washington State. Thanks for sharing your knowledge. I really appreciated your blog yesterday that educated me on the VIX, plus the one a couple days before that on Summary Index. I wish you a blessed Easter.

 

[Uptrend]

Thank You FAAM!
Washington State is beautiful, as I grew up there. I have hiked and climbed all over the North Cascades, Olympics and snow skied at every single ski area. Mt. Spokane and White Pass are my favorites. But Oregon is the rest of God's country. Home of Crater Lake, and beautiful beaches. Washington has great beaches also. Have a blessed Easter to you and yours.

 

[Uptrend]

The trend cube has been somewhat redesigned and updated. I don't see many changes going forward. I will post a blog about how to interpret the trend cube. The bottom two rows show a snapshot of market conditions, using 9 different metrics. Strength, Money Flow, VIX, SP 500 Path and Risk On/Risk Off have been added. Strength below about 20 is weak. SP 500 Path is based on Elliot intermediate waves, and a probable move before reversal. This means that there can be minute waves, and up to 20-40 point bounces. These estimates are subject to change, as the wave structure can develop in different ways. Risk On/Risk Off is based on emini SP 500 futures and currencies.

Today we see much deterioration, as the intermediate trend went to a sell condition for C and S. World markets are pulling the US markets down.

 

[Uptrend]

Todays cube is shown. Bonds are on a tear, while equities are falling. Money flow is contracting and strength is declining. I am looking for a bounce in the SP 500 1340 area, probably by next week. This should be a playable 30 point bounce that backtests the 1370 area. Larger target still remains near 1290.

Will post metadata for the cube soon.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Todays cube is shown. Bonds are on a tear, while equities are falling. Money flow is contracting and strength is declining. I am looking for a bounce in the SP 500 1340 area, probably by next week. This should be a playable 30 point bounce that backtests the 1370 area. Larger target still remains near 1290.

Will post metadata for the cube soon.

View attachment 18520

Is this still in effect or will it change this morning?

 

[Uptrend]

Here is todays cube. I almost forgot! Remember it works in the daily and weekly (for long term) timeframes. The cube does NOT day trade.

 

[Uptrend]

 

[Uptrend]

Today's trend cube is updated. It is a cube in conflict. The C S and I orange bottoming for short term will probably be rejected and turn red after today. The dollar is wanting to rally again. Strength and momentum should turn down after today, and breadth is just not buying it. So, the conclusion is that the correction is still in progess.

 

[Uptrend]

Trend Cube Update. You wil see an explanation of the cube on my blog yesterday as one of the posts. A slight correction this AM, as the Intermediate Term C fund should now be on a sell. Because all the intermediate term for C, S and I are a sell (red) condition, no buying should occur for a longer position, until they flip back orange or green. If you have a trade to give, you can buy when the short term goes orange or green and take a risk that the move will continue. There may be a scalp play this options X week, and might be even a one day play. In that context, even the short term timeframe on the cube can't pick it up fast enough. So scalp plays are like gambling, you have a little data and go on a hunch.

 

[Uptrend]

Todays Cube. There is a short term pop, but I really don't expect SPX to get much above 1381 or a little higher. Momentum is up as well as risk, the dollar is down and the I fund short term is green. The wave count suggests there is more downside to come. Breadth and strength are in a sell condition as well. You will also note the intermediate term trend is not impressed, and that is the strength of this system. Bonds are staying green.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Thanks for the update, Uptrend. I've heard this called a "suckers rally".

 

[Birchtree]

Everyone is already so bearish you get nowhere in this game agreeing with the consensus. I'll suck on this rally all day long.