Uptrend's Account Talk

[WorkFE]

The cube can go straight from red to green and bypass orange

Thanks Uptrend
I'm a no nonsense kinda guy and don't mind cutting out the middle man whenever possible. If you can make that go straight to green I would appreciate it

 

[Uptrend]

Thanks Uptrend
I'm a no nonsense kinda guy and don't mind cutting out the middle man whenever possible. If you can make that go straight to green I would appreciate it

Your so funny! Ok I'll call Crammer right now.

The US dollar made a huge fall (near 1%) yesterday, but now has made it all back up today. And breadth is not cooperating with price, as some of it has not turned back up. So, I guess I will stay in F and take a small hit while the market sorts itself out. On one hand it has passed some key fibonacci ratios which is bullish, but on the other hand has concerning stats. Intermediate term trend is up however. So, you decide.

 

[WorkFE]

does the descending VIX concern you on the over confidence side?

 

[Uptrend]

does the descending VIX concern you on the over confidence side?

It's at 16.91, and still higher than 16.10 made in early February. Over confidence is still out there and could go on for a while. But the little clue is the slightly higher low in the VIX that things could go south. My contrarian sentiment indicator reads out on the close, and still was in bearish territory yesterday. It was in bullish territory for most of the run in January, but I was ignoring. How stupid of me!

 

[WorkFE]

Thanks

 

[Uptrend]

The US dollar as tracked by UUP bullish index, is on a roll. 1% surge today. IMO this will put pressure on I fund prices and equities, if it continues. Stretching the rubber band. See the chart & enjoy!

 

[Uptrend]

More on the US dollar bullish stance. (See previous US dollar post today & chart). I notice that 92 million of EFA was bought by institutions today, and 10 million more by the retail investor. Do the gorillas know something I don't, or is it just Barclays buying for TSP'ers for the I fund? This may mean someone thinks the US dollar may fall, or Europe oversold and will go up? Will look at the European charts and Euro this weekend?


Have a great weekend!

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

More on the US dollar bullish stance. (See previous US dollar post today & chart). I notice that 92 million of EFA was bought by institutions today, and 10 million more by the retail investor. Do the gorillas know something I don't, or is it just Barclays buying for TSP'ers for the I fund? This may mean someone thinks the US dollar may fall, or Europe oversold and will go up? Will look at the European charts and Euro this weekend?


Have a great weekend!

I think there is going to be some large movements in the market in the next week or so... Up or down, I am not sure.

 

[Uptrend]

Here is the most recent Trend Cube by Uptrend for the close on Friday, March 09, 2012. Updates cannot be made until after the market close, so the trend cube carries the next trading day stamp (March 12, in this case), and is for experimental and educational purposes. Color changes from March 08, 2012 are circled. Also several market indicators are added on the bottom blue squares, and for clarification they do not pertain to any particular TSP fund. Here is what the cube is showing:

C, S, and I funds in the short term trend (STT) have potential buy signals; however certian requirements are non-conforming including market breadth and contrarian sentiment. Therefore caution is advised in the short term (days). Volatility may increase and whipsaws may result. The intermediate trend is still solidly up (weeks). The long term trend (weeks to months) has been up for some time.

 

[Uptrend]

I have noticed pennants forming on the bond charts for about three weeks now. Looks like the breakout up or down is coming in about a week or so.

 

[Uptrend]

Trend Cube update. C is a buy today for short term trade. Kind of scares me, but I will go into the C fund.

 

[Uptrend]

Elliot wave and Fibonacci calculations show the current SPX wave has broke out and is probably wave 5 with a target of 1439. With higher asset prices there will not be a QE 3. Run away bull. I expect the S fund and even I fund trend to follow in short term.

 

[Uptrend]

The pennants on the bond charts broke to the downside today. A support line also broke. They could be seen on AGG, BND and TLT. Here is BND for example:


The Uptrend cube flashed all green today, except bonds. This is as bullish as you will ever see. My math says 1439 is the top, and I now think is is a wave 5. Timeframe to get there is by the end of the month. A rising tide lifts all ships.

 

[nasa1974]

Uptrend, Thanks for the charts.

 

[eccougar]

Thanks, another nice tool to use.

 

[Uptrend]

Thanks, another nice tool to use.

Thanks eccouger. BTW cute avatar!

Here is the Uptrend cube for March 15, 2012. Note that bonds (F fund) really broke down and the intermediate trend is now down, and the long term trend is under the yellow caution flag. I don't know at this point if this is hedge fund manipulation or quite possibly Goldman Sacks doing someting, or a real problem. Lower bond prices mean higher interest rates, and it seems that will kill the fragile recovery.

Despite the loss in C, S, and I funds today the short term trend (STT) as well as the ITT and LTT are up. No change and all green.

The market is very extended, but based on wave math, I see SPX 1439 to 1448 range as being very possible, before the market turns down. SPX 1386 is support, and there is minor resistance at 1406; otherwise clear sailing. I am kicking myself for missing most of this move (and feel a little foolish being so bearish when I saw signs to the contrary), but with the trend cube now in place, I assure you that it won't happen again. In other words, follow the TA, not your heart. BTW I note that institutions are buying today, and the focus is large caps. That is why I expect the C fund to outperform in the short term.



For the Uptrend cube, you read across. The top row is a header and explains the colors. The three trend time periods are shown down the left side, and you see the colors for each TSP fund, as whether they are in buy, sell, topping or bottoming status. The color squares may or may not change color each day, depending on what is happening in the market. Circled squares show what has changed from the previous day (Oops, the yellow F LTT square should also be circled today). The bottom row in blue shows the date to be used for, and some other general market information that the Uptrend system is based upon. Confirmed means that the green squares, in part, meet trend requirements like breadth, contrarian sentiment, momentum etc. The US dollar is shown in the bottom right square, and the STT is up. This is useful for the I fund fund interpretation of price structure. Hope this explanation helps.

 

[Nordic]

Great tool, thanks Uptrend.

 

[KevinD]

BTW I note that institutions are buying today, and the focus is large caps.

Where did you hear that? And I too like the cube...

 

[Uptrend]

Where did you hear that? And I too like the cube...

Investor's Business Daily (subscription) or Ameritrade streamer are sources of Institutional buying. There is also some limited data for free if you scour the web, but not real time. I have an Ameritrade account.

No change from yesterday on Uptrend cube.

Here is a subject for the 59.5 TSP club. Did you know that when you turn 59.5, you can request that TSP roll any amount you select, one time, to any broker you select to a Self Directed Simple IRA account? You can also maintain your TSP 401(K) account and the IRA at the same time. On the plus side, once in the IRA, you can invest in stocks, ETF's and inverse ETF's (to short the market). You can also put uncirculated American Eagle gold coins inside your IRA. You are in control and have more choices. When you make trades, you will have a slightly higher trading cost than TSP. You cannot make another trade until the current trade settles according to SEC Regulation T, which takes 3 business days, unless you have additional settled cash in the account. This strategy is not for everyone. You cannot trade most futures or the options market as I understand it because the IRS thinks that is too speculative for a retirement account. But more than 2 trades is appealing, and you have thousands of choices.

 

[Uptrend]

Looks like Euro is building a right shoulder on charts. EFA etf gapped up above resistance today and MACD ready to cross 0 line, so I fund should outperform in short tern. Rebalanced to 50% C 50% I fund.