Uptrend's Account Talk

[Uptrend]

Below is the Uptrend Cube for March 19,2012. Note that bonds and the F fund is a sell, sell, sell. They are not looking good. Circles show what colors on the cube have changed from yesterday. Despite what you may think, C, S and I are still a buy (green). Notice that I started color coding the bottom row. These designations refer to the short term trend, but could also be true for the other time periods (I just don't have room to show everything and don't want to bore you). Breadth, momentum and sentiment refer to the TSP funds in green long positions only. All three must be in agreement for the trade to continue. The US dollar is topping and could decline in the short term.

BTW, more than 50 charts are used to construct this cube, and they update every day (I know it's a rectangle, but I call it a cube anyway). I believe this cube will outperform, but we shall see going forward. For most TSP trades, the intermediate term trend (ITT) should be followed, but you must take long positions on the day when when it turns from orange to green. The strong point of the intermediate term trend, is that it avoids whipsaws. We all know that can lock you out for the rest of the month if you sell and then are out of trades. So, because of our 2 IFT limitation in TSP, and depending where the trades occur, at times the short term trend would be the appripriate time period to trade. It all depends. The long term trend is for reference and could be traded, but the gain would be less that the other time periods.

 

[nasa1974]

Thanks UT. Hope the S fund is more positive next week.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

Uptrend, for your "Cube" what is you definition (time frame) for short, intermediate and long term?

Thanks for sharing your system.

 

[Uptrend]

Uptrend, for your "Cube" what is you definition (time frame) for short, intermediate and long term?

Thanks for sharing your system.

See my post #2454

 

[Uptrend]

I have done some wave cycle work tonight, and see that there is a probability that we see SPX 1439-1448 area before seeing much of a pullback. Uptrend cube is a previous post #2481 this past weekend. It will be updated when it changes.

Although institutions were selling Friday, they were also buying large cap such as Oracle, United tech, 3M, CocaCola, and the banks. So, they are cycling, taking some profits, but still accumulating. Thye sold 1.3 billion of Apple on the news, but when Apple has 100 billion in cash, that hardly made a dent. If Apple announces a dividend tomorrow, that may give the market a boast over the current SPX resistance near 1405-1407. Once cleared it is smooth sailing to the 1440-1450 area.

Momentum in the market is strongly up.

The US dollar appears to be cooling off, and that should give a I fund a bid.

I really don't know why bond prices fell badly last week, other than the fear of inflation is out there. If the Fed does not get the long bond yield rise under control, that may put a damper on the recovery. They battle deflation with QE, but inflation with raising rates. If the Fed is unwilling to do that, the market may push yields higher anyway, because investors will want more; otherwise they have an opportunity cost consideration, and can invest elsewhere.

 

[Uptrend]

The 10-30 year bond prices need to hold at Monday's close, or there will be a nasty fall. The US dollar shows a sell in the short term on Uptrend trend cube today. The short term trend is slightly weaker but all buy signals are intact.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Is today a buy or sell day?

 

[Uptrend]

Todays price action will not change the trend. Don't worry about the bumps.

 

[Uptrend]

My trend cube is posted below. Notice that Tuesday 3/20 (determined after the close of the market and stamped for the next trading day) the S and I funds turned yellow for a potential down turn, but the C fund did not follow. Notice also that there is no sell (red) in any timeframe for the C, S or I funds. Bond weakness continues.

I still think as a scenario that the market trades sideways for the next few days, while more space is created under the bollinger bands from the last big run-up. For SPX the bollinger bands have 1413 as a lid for now, but time will allow that to creep up. Then a blast for 3-5 trading days above the upper band to 1439-1448 near the first of the month to a top. Or the market could go down and test SPX 1386 first, and if that holds reverse and go to 1439-1448. Or fail from here. It all depends. Trend cube is monitoring.

 

[Uptrend]

Update for Thursday, March 22

 

[nasa1974]

Thanks UT.

 

[Uptrend]

 

[Uptrend]

Uptrend Trend Cube update:

 

[Uptrend]

 

[Uptrend]

Final Leg
Risk-on, Risk-off
I just don't care!
It's a bull were riding
Not a bear

Don't lock your gains
but let em float
When winter comes
You can buy a coat!

Like Birchtree says
No top anywhere in sight
"Put on your sticky pants"
And sit tight

While market sentiment
Is building an extreme
I'm in the parlor
Eating ice-cream!

A crash no doubt
One day will come
With Bernanke at my side
I'm betting on a market over-run

So don't worry
And sleep good at night
After the election
There will probably be a fight

Pick out your short ETF instruments
Right now
Fibonacci says "Up till 2013"
And then POW!

 

[nasa1974]

Final Leg
Risk-on, Risk-off
I just don't care!
It's a bull were riding
Not a bear

UT, I think you may have a second career.

 

[Birchtree]

The strength and pervasiveness of this rally will show the true character of this present bull market - some runs may be unprecedented.

 

[Uptrend]

Uptrend Trend Cube for 3/28/12

 

[Uptrend]

 

[Uptrend]