Uptrend's Account Talk

[WhoDey]

Yeah ... I'm probably over thinking this ... but I'm eager to gain a better understanding of the relationship between various actions and the movement of the TSP funds.

Just consider me the eager student who is always raising their hand to ask a question while the rest of the class rolls their eyes!

 

[Birchtree]

It's just more Operation Twist. The Fed is forcing money managers to venture into the riskier realm of what ever they're allowed to invest in.

 

[Geaux4it]

You just have to wonder how long it will be before the elephants take the dance floor and sell this thing off. Something just is not right.....

 

[Uptrend]

Still waiting for the market to roll over, and the time is now arriving. Looking for a correction to somewhere between SPX 1260-1290. A few gaps are down the chart. This should be intermediate wave 4, and than I will play wave 5 for a bounce to around 1380. Been waiting for this development for 3-4 weeks, since I missed the new year entry point (really was a hold from 12/19/11). Anyway, when I miss a trade, I have learned not to chase, no matter where it goes.

VIX is marching out to do battle with companion Volatility. Hanging Man and Red candle are not far behind. Meanwhile on the default front; the Greeks are making an agreement to get together to consider making an agreement, the details of which are not in the agreement, so another day will be required.... Is this miss number 564?

 

[KneednDough]

Thanks uptrend. I always look for your posts daily. What is your date projection for hitting the 1260-1290 range? Like you I missed this last rally, but I got impatient and I made a BIG mistake getting in on Monday, so I am trying decide to bail or ride it out. I would not be able to get back in until March 1st thanks to limitations set by TSP. Thanks again. I value your input.

 

[bmneveu]

Still waiting for the market to roll over, and the time is now arriving. Looking for a correction to somewhere between SPX 1260-1290. A few gaps are down the chart. This should be intermediate wave 4, and than I will play wave 5 for a bounce to around 1380. Been waiting for this development for 3-4 weeks, since I missed the new year entry point (really was a hold from 12/19/11). Anyway, when I miss a trade, I have learned not to chase, no matter where it goes.

VIX is marching out to do battle with companion Volatility. Hanging Man and Red candle are not far behind. Meanwhile on the default front; the Greeks are making an agreement to get together to consider making an agreement, the details of which are not in the agreement, so another day will be required.... Is this miss number 564?

Like. I'm right there with ya waiting to get in. It's been a long month watching the S fund either go up or stay flat every day. But this pullback is long due and those who were patient will get first class when they jump on the train. I've actually never been on a train... Do they have first class seats? Lol.

 

[JamesE]

I went against my instincts on this trade, I stepped aside and missed the last 9%. I don't think its going to 1260-1290, but UT is much more analytical than myself. One good thing is that buyers are still stepping up, big time. Bad things: nothing goes straight up, insiders taking profits, rydex cash flow looks topped out and ready for a pull back. Don at sevensentinels issued a sell yesterday too. We'll see if buyers keep it up today. I am encouraged that the bad news out of Greece this week couldn't yank the markets down, everybody expects default happen anyway. I may have to step back out since I'm only up 2.93% ytd.

Trading Notes - Traders-Talk.com

Its amazing how for weeks everybody's cheering the markets, you decide to pull the trigger and jump back in because there's no real negative news out there. Then, like magic, that afternoon's traders chatter is saying pullback... wonderful......

 

[Warrenlm]

Consistent with the thought that a pullback is yet to come, Jim Cramer said that today is not the day to buy in....a better point is coming. I'm still processing this statement and comparing with his euphoria yesterday. I'm sure he is omniscient and it's just me......

 

[jkenjohnson]

Consistent with the thought that a pullback is yet to come, Jim Cramer said that today is not the day to buy in....a better point is coming. I'm still processing this statement and comparing with his euphoria yesterday. I'm sure he is omniscient and it's just me......

Cramer is consistently wrong. I would not base my trades on his opinion - just my two cents. I used to watch him and CNBC and have just stopped watching them all together. No value for me.

 

[kdr1]

Don did not issue a sell yesterday for the seven sentinals, this is what he said:
"Looking for a pull-back to 1325-1330 area versus SPX, then new 2009-2012 highs shortly thereafter. Sitting tight with UPRO. Stop continues to be a Seven Sentinels Sell Signal. Good trading all. D"
He means that if there is a seven sentinel sell signal he would be stopped out (sell) his UPRO.

 

[Uptrend]

First things first. SPX looks to have put in a wave 5. The horizontal red line at 1345 is the level to watch, then 1342.

Bonds are getting close to a buy. US dollar wants to rise. More charts tomorrow.

 

[Uptrend]

We shall soon see if we have an extension to this uptrend, or if intermediate wave 4 down has began. If an extension, the max target is SPX 1377 and then 1395 at the very outside. If minute wave 5 of intermediate wave 3 has completed, then intermediate wave 4 max target is 1261. SPX 1337 is the line in the sand. If this level holds, then it may be a short term buy signal. If 1337 fails, then intermediate wave 4 has began. That is the wave call. The chart is 15 minute bars. Futures are down tonight, but have not breached this 1337 level yet. Remember, there is about a 4-5 point difference (lower) between the E-mini SP March 12 futures contract and SPX. Tomorrow we should know what is going on. Isn't this exciting?

 

[Nordic]

Whaddya think? We need an Uptrend update.

 

[MaStA]

Looks like Uptrend went into the F fund today.

 

[Uptrend]

F fund has posted a buy today. The 74-78 week cycle is topping, and appears to be making a cycle high, not low, so it is inverted. US dollar finding support.

 

[Uptrend]

Momentum is cooling off. Price should follow soon. Institutions control the market because of the sheer size of trades and dwarf the little retail investor. Plus they have access to the smartest technicians, a wealth of historical data, and all kinds of tools. So, I am following and have prepared this graph. Will show this chart update periodically, as have just started tracking data. Net institutions money flow has been heading down for the last week, with one bump up, so the big boys are selling into it.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Uptrend, it's good to see your around and I think I speak for a lot of people when I say we have missed your posts...

I personally, look forward to more in the future.

Have a great day !!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Momentum is cooling off. Price should follow soon. Institutions control the market because of the sheer size of trades and dwarf the little retail investor. Plus they have access to the smartest technicians, a wealth of historical data, and all kinds of tools. So, I am following and have prepared this graph. Will show this chart update periodically, as have just started tracking data. Net institutions money flow has been heading down for the last week, with one bump up, so the big boys are selling into it.

View attachment 17854

Good chart, Uptrend. I agree that institutions move the market, including the Fed. Not sure I can draw a conclusion that momentum is cooling off from one week's worth of data. Would like to see how this chart looks over the last 6-12 months, so it can be overlayed on the market.

 

[Uptrend]

Good chart, Uptrend. Not sure I can draw a conclusion that momentum is cooling off from one week's worth of data.

Momentum was unrelated to that chart I showed, as it was a different topic. I should have clarified. Market momentum has been decreasing since mid-month. It's like driving in a car and taking your foot off the gas. The car still moves forward for a while, but at a ever decreasing rate. It is a warning sign of a market reversal.

Here is a look at SPX today with a few thoughts on the chart. BTW, today was probably a bull trap.



Bonds are still a buy. AGG and BND have ascending triangles. That is bullish. Resistance overhead however. The 200 ma are also trending up. That is the sweep.

 

[Uptrend]

Gold silver and copper sold off today. The market continues to lose momentum and is trying to tip over. SPX 1352 is the level to watch.