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Uptrend's Account Talk
- Thread starter Uptrend
- Start date
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
:blink: I'm just not sure a single website has enough subscribers, traders or transactions to have an effect on the market...no matter what promotion they offer?
Have you taken a look at the overall volume of the market. With volume that low, I think it is more of a possibility than it could have been the last 5 months of last year.
Sensei
Well-known member
Hey guys -
Sharebuilder offers a plan where, for $12/month, you can make up to 12 purchases through their automatic investing program. The purchases are always/only made on Tuesdays. If you want to buy on another day, it costs $8 per trade. So, obviously, the buy & hold investors like me are going with the Tuesday plan.
Like Berline (nice avatar by the way!) said, I kind of doubt that one online trading company could have that much influence on the overall market. But what do I know?
Sharebuilder offers a plan where, for $12/month, you can make up to 12 purchases through their automatic investing program. The purchases are always/only made on Tuesdays. If you want to buy on another day, it costs $8 per trade. So, obviously, the buy & hold investors like me are going with the Tuesday plan.
Like Berline (nice avatar by the way!) said, I kind of doubt that one online trading company could have that much influence on the overall market. But what do I know?
Uptrend
Well-known member
The market is at a balance point, where a strong uptrend or downtrend could develop. The elliotitions are all over the map and all sorts of outcomes can be drawn.
For the intermediate trend, if you start with the 11/25/11 1158 SPX low, SPX is in the 3rd wave up and it is getting extended. Wave 1=8 days, wave 2= 8 days and wave 3=21 days so far. Wave 3 may or may not be completed, depending on how one counts the minute waves. There could be a pullback to 1300-1302 and then up to as high as 1330 to complete the wave. Or it could turn right here and start wave 4 down (I have a wave 4 initial target of 1259 BTW). The latter is my preference based on several observations: 1) Euro/USD pair looks like it wants to trade down again, with a target between 124.5-126, before putting in a temporary low. 2) QQQ, NDX & DOW are matching the pre-fall July 2011 highs, but the Russell and SPX are not. You can point out that the DOW and QQQ's lead, but nevertheless, a resistance zone has been reached and some market re-grouping may be required. 3)The market is over extended and meets a time requirement, 4) There is a strong indication that QE3 will not happen, and also the market may not be happy with the new transparent FED and with the combination "sell the news."
So I sat one cycle out, because I was not sure. I have learned there are 6-8 really good set-ups on average in a given year, so there are more opportunities. Better to be safe than be hammered by the market. I see a glass half-empty, you see a glass half-full. I see a safe trade by sitting on the sideline & you see a safe trade by being in the market. Point is: we both have different ways of looking at things, so let's not get too excited, but rather compare our results at the end of the year.
For the intermediate trend, if you start with the 11/25/11 1158 SPX low, SPX is in the 3rd wave up and it is getting extended. Wave 1=8 days, wave 2= 8 days and wave 3=21 days so far. Wave 3 may or may not be completed, depending on how one counts the minute waves. There could be a pullback to 1300-1302 and then up to as high as 1330 to complete the wave. Or it could turn right here and start wave 4 down (I have a wave 4 initial target of 1259 BTW). The latter is my preference based on several observations: 1) Euro/USD pair looks like it wants to trade down again, with a target between 124.5-126, before putting in a temporary low. 2) QQQ, NDX & DOW are matching the pre-fall July 2011 highs, but the Russell and SPX are not. You can point out that the DOW and QQQ's lead, but nevertheless, a resistance zone has been reached and some market re-grouping may be required. 3)The market is over extended and meets a time requirement, 4) There is a strong indication that QE3 will not happen, and also the market may not be happy with the new transparent FED and with the combination "sell the news."
So I sat one cycle out, because I was not sure. I have learned there are 6-8 really good set-ups on average in a given year, so there are more opportunities. Better to be safe than be hammered by the market. I see a glass half-empty, you see a glass half-full. I see a safe trade by sitting on the sideline & you see a safe trade by being in the market. Point is: we both have different ways of looking at things, so let's not get too excited, but rather compare our results at the end of the year.
Cactus
Well-known member
I'm with you on this one. I've shared in too much of the Pain without a corresponding Gain to place much faith in the market this year. I realize I'm being, what some consider, overly negative and pessimistic, but that has been my experience over the years.
The way I see it, buying in here is chasing the market and buying high. My experience from last year is the only way to make money in this market is to basically be out of the market most of the time and only buy in for a spell after a downturn. Of course now that I say that the market will go up for the next six months like it did on me in the later half of 2009.
Of course now that I say that the market will go up for the next six months like it did on me in the later half of 2009.
But this isn't 2009. Got to play it a little different. Good luck!!!
Sensei
Well-known member
Looking at what's going on in the European markets, I'd be very surprised to see us in the black today. I don't think Sharebuilder is large enough to make a ripple in the indices. Looks like I might be getting a discounted DCA this week though.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Here is my VIX view. Remember that the VIX moves opposite the market, and is a measure of fear. It is showing there is not much fear right now. The chart tells all, and suggests a move is coming soon. The advance/decline line is shown at the bottom of the chart, where bottoms are tops on the VIX and tops are bottoms on the VIX. Think like a contrarian - if it is too good to be true - well then...
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
Nice chart Uptrend !!
How does now compare to just before the drop in late July '11?
Thanks !!
Uptrend
Well-known member
Was gone skiing for the weekend, so I came back pretty sore, but had loads of fun. Great winter sport.
For the July-September period the Vanguard Total Bond Fund gained +4.5%. So far, from 12/27/11 -1/27/12 the same bond fund has gained 1.2%. I did a quick inspection of the F fund for the same period, and it is tracking with close percentages; +4.6% and +1.1%. So, it appears that the Vanguard Total Bond Fund might be a good surrogate for the F fund. The charts show that bonds are ticking up again. However, there is a glass ceiling on some bond charts, so I think the move might be limited; unless the ceiling breaks to the upside.
Regarding equities, my read (now) it that the market is in a intermediate uptrend, and appears to be starting wave 4 in a 12345 from the November SPX 1159 low. The retracement underway, should not overlap wave 1 high at 1267.06. So when the turn comes, I will buy some C, S combination and ride wave 5 to the 1375 -1410 area to the top.
I will give a VIX update after the bears chew on the market tomorrow (January 30,2011).
For the July-September period the Vanguard Total Bond Fund gained +4.5%. So far, from 12/27/11 -1/27/12 the same bond fund has gained 1.2%. I did a quick inspection of the F fund for the same period, and it is tracking with close percentages; +4.6% and +1.1%. So, it appears that the Vanguard Total Bond Fund might be a good surrogate for the F fund. The charts show that bonds are ticking up again. However, there is a glass ceiling on some bond charts, so I think the move might be limited; unless the ceiling breaks to the upside.
Regarding equities, my read (now) it that the market is in a intermediate uptrend, and appears to be starting wave 4 in a 12345 from the November SPX 1159 low. The retracement underway, should not overlap wave 1 high at 1267.06. So when the turn comes, I will buy some C, S combination and ride wave 5 to the 1375 -1410 area to the top.
I will give a VIX update after the bears chew on the market tomorrow (January 30,2011).
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
Thanks for the update, Uptrend.
I am in your camp on the retrace and subsequent upturn. I think this is healthy and much needed. I am also hoping the VIX does a quick dance up to bring caution back to investors... but who knows
I am in your camp on the retrace and subsequent upturn. I think this is healthy and much needed. I am also hoping the VIX does a quick dance up to bring caution back to investors... but who knows
JTH
Well-known member
Uptrend
Well-known member
30-60 minute chart analysis. Will the market keep falling?
If SPX 1303 is not taken out soon on a closing basis, we should get a reversal to the upside and you might as well punch your ticket. This is where the 200 ema is providing support. There has been one hit so far with a fake out failure and then a recovery to 1321, a dive to 1306 and the building of what appears to be a bear flag.
Another idea (and my bias considering currencies and other things): from the reversal starting last Thursday January 26, minute wave 1 retraced from 1333 to 1300 (33pts), minute wave 2 advanced from 1300 to 1321 (21 pts), and now wave 3 retracement appears to be underway. Fibonacci chart math suggests that minute wave 3 target is between SPX 1268 and 1275. Then the whole move might end in some kind of flat or triangle with a minute wave 4 test of 1300 area and then fall back with minute wave 5 to near the SPX 1268-1275 low. The 50 ema is in this target range btw, coming in at 1271.
We have a lower high on the SPX at 1321, which looks promising for the bears to trade down, but is is not known yet whether we have a real reversal until the market trades below 1303. If this occurs, cycle analysis suggests the next turn date higher should be on February 13 (+/-1 day). However, if the market takes off from here, the continuation will be until that date. Futures tonight are falling, but not enough for the 1303 area to be overcome. More later.
If SPX 1303 is not taken out soon on a closing basis, we should get a reversal to the upside and you might as well punch your ticket. This is where the 200 ema is providing support. There has been one hit so far with a fake out failure and then a recovery to 1321, a dive to 1306 and the building of what appears to be a bear flag.
Another idea (and my bias considering currencies and other things): from the reversal starting last Thursday January 26, minute wave 1 retraced from 1333 to 1300 (33pts), minute wave 2 advanced from 1300 to 1321 (21 pts), and now wave 3 retracement appears to be underway. Fibonacci chart math suggests that minute wave 3 target is between SPX 1268 and 1275. Then the whole move might end in some kind of flat or triangle with a minute wave 4 test of 1300 area and then fall back with minute wave 5 to near the SPX 1268-1275 low. The 50 ema is in this target range btw, coming in at 1271.
We have a lower high on the SPX at 1321, which looks promising for the bears to trade down, but is is not known yet whether we have a real reversal until the market trades below 1303. If this occurs, cycle analysis suggests the next turn date higher should be on February 13 (+/-1 day). However, if the market takes off from here, the continuation will be until that date. Futures tonight are falling, but not enough for the 1303 area to be overcome. More later.
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
30-60 minute chart analysis. Will the market keep falling?
If SPX 1303 is not taken out soon on a closing basis, we should get a reversal to the upside and you might as well punch your ticket. This is where the 200 ema is providing support. There has been one hit so far with a fake out failure and then a recovery to 1321, a dive to 1306 and the building of what appears to be a bear flag.
Another idea (and my bias considering currencies and other things): from the reversal starting last Thursday January 26, minute wave 1 retraced from 1333 to 1300 (33pts), minute wave 2 advanced from 1300 to 1321 (21 pts), and now wave 3 retracement appears to be underway. Fibonacci chart math suggests that minute wave 3 target is between SPX 1268 and 1275. Then the whole move might end in some kind of flat or triangle with a minute wave 4 test of 1300 area and then fall back with minute wave 5 to near the SPX 1268-1275 low. The 50 ema is in this target range btw, coming in at 1271.
We have a lower high on the SPX at 1321, which looks promising for the bears to trade down, but is is not known yet whether we have a real reversal until the market trades below 1303. If this occurs, cycle analysis suggests the next turn date higher should be on February 13 (+/-1 day). However, if the market takes off from here, the continuation will be until that date. Futures tonight are falling, but not enough for the 1303 area to be overcome. More later.
Great post Uptrend. I think a few of us are on the same line. I didn't think about closing below 1303 as an indication of more downside, but it makes sense. I probably would have put it at 1300 (20 SMA), but who will bicker over 3 handles... anyway, futures are right around 1304 (never mind, back to 1306) so lets see what happens until the markets open. We have the ADP Report at 0815, ISM Mfg Report and Construction Spending at 1000, and the EIA Petroleum status at 1030. It's will be an interesting morning.
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MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
I'm thinking that VIX could go all the way down to the 15-16 area before it reverses. The market just has too much strength right now. Just a hypothesis...
JR
