-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
Uptrend's Account Talk
- Thread starter Uptrend
- Start date
Khotso
Active member
I think he is actually excited. Every down move is an opportunity to buy!
I think you are right!
Uptrend
Well-known member
Which way is the market going? I have elliot wave counts, and all sorts of TA. Sentiment is still a little too bearish (bullish for stocks). And we are in the middle of options X week after making a new 3 month high, which has a high probability of being bearish. But it's not (yet).
I feel a little left out sitting on the sidelines (or in F fund) while the market rockets higher. (But then I remind myself, that I beat all the premium services last year).
After studying all kinds of TA stuff, I conclude that the bond markets are the smartest markets in the world, and give clues about tomorrow,today. Because bond markets move so little up and down, it is very difficult to count unfolding waves with much precision (at least for me). So then I look at channels. Taking AGG for example (Barclays Aggregate Bond Fund), I see a beautiful uptrending channel (green) since December 1, 2011. The channel trade is still on as long as 110.25 -110.13 or so holds. If AGG breaks down here, then the Euro will probably be doing a backtest of the 130 area, and the equities risk trade is back on for a short period of time. If green line support holds, equities is going down IMO. It is also possible for some other reasons, that SPX and bonds could move up lockstep up for a short period of time.
Notice the larger channel and the bollinger band (BB) boundaries of the price action. The next major move in that larger and longer timeframe channel (magenta) is up. The swings appear to take about 3.5 months.
So be careful out there. Remember, this is no stops trading. The big gain on your TSP paper record can evaporate quickly. Managing risk also means managing the number of days one is in the market. More days in = more risk.
I feel a little left out sitting on the sidelines (or in F fund) while the market rockets higher. (But then I remind myself, that I beat all the premium services last year).
After studying all kinds of TA stuff, I conclude that the bond markets are the smartest markets in the world, and give clues about tomorrow,today. Because bond markets move so little up and down, it is very difficult to count unfolding waves with much precision (at least for me). So then I look at channels. Taking AGG for example (Barclays Aggregate Bond Fund), I see a beautiful uptrending channel (green) since December 1, 2011. The channel trade is still on as long as 110.25 -110.13 or so holds. If AGG breaks down here, then the Euro will probably be doing a backtest of the 130 area, and the equities risk trade is back on for a short period of time. If green line support holds, equities is going down IMO. It is also possible for some other reasons, that SPX and bonds could move up lockstep up for a short period of time.
Notice the larger channel and the bollinger band (BB) boundaries of the price action. The next major move in that larger and longer timeframe channel (magenta) is up. The swings appear to take about 3.5 months.
So be careful out there. Remember, this is no stops trading. The big gain on your TSP paper record can evaporate quickly. Managing risk also means managing the number of days one is in the market. More days in = more risk.
Intrepid_Timer
Well-known member
Congratulations, you seem pretty proud of that. What happened in 2010? How does one actually lose money when the S fund is up 29% for the year?
MaStA
Member
Definitely agree...I for one really appreciate the kind support of some people on this forum (Uptrend being one of them).
Intrepid_Timer
Well-known member
That is your opinion. Bragging about beating someone when they had ONE good year isn't?
Intrepid_Timer
Well-known member
I've never said one bad thing about Uptrend, but if he wants to compare returns, let's look at the big picture. Sorry if I offended anyone, but let's keep it real. There are plenty of new TSPers showing up here every day, they should know the facts before blindly jumping in and following someone's advice. It's all about perceptions.
Last edited:
Show-me
Well-known member
Really you didn't come of snarky combative or condescending. Everyone can have a bad year nobody's perfect. Even the most season traders can have bad years and the usual circumstances over the last couple years couldn't have anything to do with people losing money. Anyone should be proud of their performance on any given year without having to pay homage to you. Let's keep it real.
Show-me
Well-known member
For a lot of people the premium services are the bar or the goals and to beat them all in 1 year he should be proud of it and you should allow him to be so. I would be. He's not going around criticize anyone else performance just expressing pride in his 1 year performance. Somethings never change Mike.
jpcavin
Well-known member
Intrepid_Timer
Well-known member
If you are going to compare yourself to someone else, then you should be able to accept the facts. Uptrend and I have know each other a long time and it's nothing personal. I don't remember anyone asking your opinion either.
You're right, some things don't change and I will continue to call a spade a spade. Uptrend provides some useful information, as do you, but it's obvious he doesn't always follow it. Unlike the other premium services, I'll defend my service when it is challenged. You would sit idly by?
Intrepid_Timer
Well-known member
Okay Bill, you're right, as usual.......................Similar threads
- Article
