Uptrend's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

I buy even when it rains - the more you have in the more you win. Buy more FLO....

 

[nsurf9]

When ever I get kicked in the "butt" so hard that I can distinguish that I'm sitting on my face - - I read Birch's thread - - 'cause I know he's going to be buying up something.

 

[Khotso]

I think he is actually excited. Every down move is an opportunity to buy!

I think you are right!

 

[Uptrend]

Which way is the market going? I have elliot wave counts, and all sorts of TA. Sentiment is still a little too bearish (bullish for stocks). And we are in the middle of options X week after making a new 3 month high, which has a high probability of being bearish. But it's not (yet).

I feel a little left out sitting on the sidelines (or in F fund) while the market rockets higher. (But then I remind myself, that I beat all the premium services last year).

After studying all kinds of TA stuff, I conclude that the bond markets are the smartest markets in the world, and give clues about tomorrow,today. Because bond markets move so little up and down, it is very difficult to count unfolding waves with much precision (at least for me). So then I look at channels. Taking AGG for example (Barclays Aggregate Bond Fund), I see a beautiful uptrending channel (green) since December 1, 2011. The channel trade is still on as long as 110.25 -110.13 or so holds. If AGG breaks down here, then the Euro will probably be doing a backtest of the 130 area, and the equities risk trade is back on for a short period of time. If green line support holds, equities is going down IMO. It is also possible for some other reasons, that SPX and bonds could move up lockstep up for a short period of time.

Notice the larger channel and the bollinger band (BB) boundaries of the price action. The next major move in that larger and longer timeframe channel (magenta) is up. The swings appear to take about 3.5 months.

So be careful out there. Remember, this is no stops trading. The big gain on your TSP paper record can evaporate quickly. Managing risk also means managing the number of days one is in the market. More days in = more risk.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

I feel a little left out sitting on the sidelines (or in F fund) while the market rockets higher. (But then I remind myself, that I beat all the premium services last year).

Congratulations, you seem pretty proud of that. What happened in 2010? How does one actually lose money when the S fund is up 29% for the year?

 

[Show-me]

I feel a little left out sitting on the sidelines (or in F fund) while the market rockets higher. (But then I remind myself, that I beat all the premium services last year).

Congratulations, you seem pretty proud of that. What happened in 2010? How does one actually lose money when the S fund is up 29% for the year?

That was rude and uncalled for.

 

[MaStA]

I sense some hositlity.

 

[MaStA]

That was rude and uncalled for.

Definitely agree...I for one really appreciate the kind support of some people on this forum (Uptrend being one of them).

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

That was rude and uncalled for.

That is your opinion. Bragging about beating someone when they had ONE good year isn't?

 

[nnuut]

Good Morning Folks.

 

[Birchtree]

Risk is what creates opportunity. When there is no perceived risk, there is no opportunity. When the bonds break to the downside I want to be on the tracks and face the on coming train.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Definitely agree...I for one really appreciate the kind support of some people on this forum (Uptrend being one of them).

I've never said one bad thing about Uptrend, but if he wants to compare returns, let's look at the big picture. Sorry if I offended anyone, but let's keep it real. There are plenty of new TSPers showing up here every day, they should know the facts before blindly jumping in and following someone's advice. It's all about perceptions.

 

[Show-me]

Really you didn't come of snarky combative or condescending. Everyone can have a bad year nobody's perfect. Even the most season traders can have bad years and the usual circumstances over the last couple years couldn't have anything to do with people losing money. Anyone should be proud of their performance on any given year without having to pay homage to you. Let's keep it real.

 

[nnuut]

The real thing is we are all fighting the same fight and make a GREAT team, working together is the answer.

 

[Show-me]

For a lot of people the premium services are the bar or the goals and to beat them all in 1 year he should be proud of it and you should allow him to be so. I would be. He's not going around criticize anyone else performance just expressing pride in his 1 year performance. Somethings never change Mike.

 

[Birchtree]

Where is Wonder Woman when you need her? Or even better the Ice Princess?

 

[Show-me]

Where is Wonder Woman when you need her? Or even better the Ice Princess?

ROFLMAO you made a funny Birch.

 

[jpcavin]

Congratulations, you seem pretty proud of that. What happened in 2010? How does one actually lose money when the S fund is up 29% for the year?

Some things never change!

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

For a lot of people the premium services are the bar or the goals and to beat them all in 1 year he should be proud of it and you should allow him to be so. I would be. He's not going around criticize anyone else performance just expressing pride in his 1 year performance. Somethings never change Mike.

If you are going to compare yourself to someone else, then you should be able to accept the facts. Uptrend and I have know each other a long time and it's nothing personal. I don't remember anyone asking your opinion either.

You're right, some things don't change and I will continue to call a spade a spade. Uptrend provides some useful information, as do you, but it's obvious he doesn't always follow it. Unlike the other premium services, I'll defend my service when it is challenged. You would sit idly by?

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Really you didn't come of snarky combative or condescending. Everyone can have a bad year nobody's perfect. Even the most season traders can have bad years and the usual circumstances over the last couple years couldn't have anything to do with people losing money. Anyone should be proud of their performance on any given year without having to pay homage to you. Let's keep it real.

Homage? Okay Bill, you're right, as usual.......................