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Shifting to G today. Trade over. Momentum is failing. Meets time requirement. Reverse will probably show up between 12/28-12/30.
 
My turn date today was first mentioned on 12/07 in post #2286. Today, there was a bear flag breakdown on the Euro ($XEU stockcharts) and a pennant break to the upside on the US dollar bullish index (UUP stockcharts). So the 130 physiological level on the Euro has broke, without a European bonds auction. That's strange. There must be some whispers that are setting this up. There is also chart resistance on SPX etc. Next SPX target I have for a possible stop is 1243; then 1230.

My bias is nuetral at this time. I stilll think the market goes higher (low 1300 area) before heading on down below 1100 in a bear market primary wave 3. The US dollar is just starting a bull market. Commodities like oil & coal will fall, along with gold, silver and equities. I believe US could see $2.00-$2.50 gallon gasoline within a year. I also believe that inflation will pick up in food at a faster rate next year, and that could dampen the gold retracement. Agricultural stocks could be real winners. Have a happy New Year!
 
Uptrend said:
My turn date today was first mentioned on 12/07 in post #2286. Today, there was a bear flag breakdown on the Euro ($XEU stockcharts) and a pennant break to the upside on the US dollar bullish index (UUP stockcharts). So the 130 physiological level on the Euro has broke, without a European bonds auction. That's strange. There must be some whispers that are setting this up. There is also chart resistance on SPX etc. Next SPX target I have for a possible stop is 1243; then 1230.

My bias is nuetral at this time. I stilll think the market goes higher (low 1300 area) before heading on down below 1100 in a bear market primary wave 3. The US dollar is just starting a bull market. Commodities like oil & coal will fall, along with gold, silver and equities. I believe US could see $2.00-$2.50 gallon gasoline within a year. I also believe that inflation will pick up in food at a faster rate next year, and that could dampen the gold retracement. Agricultural stocks could be real winners. Have a happy New Year!
Click to expand...

Good call, you're on it!
 
Happy New Year to you too! :) Your Thread should be on everyone's radar as a must read. I have learned a great deal from you and hope to continue to learn more in 2012. Do you have the next turn date pinned down yet? Will it be at 1230 or lower? :worried: In January I plan on jumping back in and ride up to 1300 and then back to the F Fund to watch the fall to 1100. :nuts: That's the plan anyhow...I look forward to your future posts. Ray
 
I saw the almost 13% decline for Fund I for the year so I decided to jump back in as I have been in Fund G for a while. It may go down more but I will be buying in with current contributions to the Fund I as well so that will be good. Thanks for you contributions with the trend information and have a good 2012. Happy investing!

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.
 
Uptrend,

I believe you follow the wave systems better than anyone one here so what are you thinking now? Are we having another mini bull within the minor bear? If so, am I right in that we would have to break 1269 SPX solidly for the minor bear to be negated and for us to have a bull wave? I know you are looking at about now for something to happen and with things getting coiled tighter and tighter I was looking for an update on your analysis.

Thanks and Happy New Year!
 
Here is my analysis. I believe that the Euro and the US dollar are highly correlated and that is driving the equities market. Let's face it. Europe is broke. Go to CNBC and elsewhere to find out about the breaking news that the Fed is backstopping the ECB by adding liquidity via swaps. It's technically not a loan, but in reality it is a loan. All manipulation that is hidden usually ends badly.

Now to the technicals. When the Euro falls, the US dollar will rise and that will bring equities down, because of the weighting of commodities and related industries in the indexes. So today, I am showing the Euro trust FXE chart. We see two ideas. Idea one: the Euro has broke down from the magenta pennant and is now in backtest mode to about 132. This will allow the US markets to rise in the short term, but then will fail. Idea two: The Euro falls in the near term to the 125 area, where there is strong support and then backtests the resistance above, before falling further. I think we are on the front side of a bull market in the US dollar, with a longer term objective of the Euro to 125, 118 and finally about 113 at the bottom of the green channel.

So for US markets and early January 2012, I am nuetral with a bit of a positive bias, but will wait and see. The SPX could rise further and put in a double top before falling (while the Euro 132 backtest is going on), or fall right away in early January. I don't trust light volume holiday trading, as it does not represent normal. When the Euro makes a move, we can get a better picture. Happy New Year!

2011-12-29_FXE_.jpg
 
Happy New Year!!

Looking for very good returns this year! It really does not matter, what the market does, because there is a strategy to deal with whatever is dished out, barring a real intense black swan event. I say that, becasue the way we TSP people trade is without stops. That is crazy in the trading world of day or swing traders. But that is our limitation. Take your medicine and be happy.

My personal goal is to be in the 30% club.

I could bore you with all kinds of details I have observed through self study over the holidays, but I will continue on the Euro weakness and US dollar correlation I brought up in the last post. A correlation continues until it well --isn't. So, the Euro is oversold and needs to crawl back above roughly 130 to turn positive and bring the US dollar down. This also appears to me also be a physiological risk on/off level. Anyway, if the Euro takes a temporary break from falling apart (and I think it will), we should see perhaps roughly 134 for a fibonacci 0.382% retracement from the last high or at the outside, another kiss of the 200 ema near 137. It this scanerio would develop, US equities would go to a buy and top in the third week of January. In other words, we should know by tomorrow or Wednesday, which way the movement goes.
 
Uptrend- I enjoy your read. Thanks

BTW- futures up nicely this morning following the Euro as you described, so it appears.
 
Uptrend said:
Happy New Year!!

Looking for very good returns this year! It really does not matter, what the market does, because there is a strategy to deal with whatever is dished out, barring a real intense black swan event. I say that, becasue the way we TSP people trade is without stops. That is crazy in the trading world of day or swing traders. But that is our limitation. Take your medicine and be happy.

My personal goal is to be in the 30% club.

I could bore you with all kinds of details I have observed through self study over the holidays, but I will continue on the Euro weakness and US dollar correlation I brought up in the last post. A correlation continues until it well --isn't. So, the Euro is oversold and needs to crawl back above roughly 130 to turn positive and bring the US dollar down. This also appears to me also be a physiological risk on/off level. Anyway, if the Euro takes a temporary break from falling apart (and I think it will), we should see perhaps roughly 134 for a fibonacci 0.382% retracement from the last high or at the outside, another kiss of the 200 ema near 137. It this scanerio would develop, US equities would go to a buy and top in the third week of January. In other words, we should know by tomorrow or Wednesday, which way the movement goes.
Click to expand...

Happy New Year Uptrend! I wanted to take a moment to thank you for the time and shared info you put into your postings. I learn a lot from every one of them. You've been remarkably spot on a majority of the time in the past 6 months since your return as a frequent poster to this forum. Good for you and yay for us who benefit from your insights! Thirty % is a lofty goal - but one you just may achieve. Here's to an even better year in 2012!
 
I also appreciate your insight on current market conditions and I visit your page daily as well as a few others. Hopefully one day I can spend some time to learn some more about this stuff and maybe add something one day. Thanks again and please keep it up! :)
 
Happy New Year!!! As a newbie to this site and relatively new to trading I wanted you to know that I appreciate your postings and TA!!! I look for your postings daily as well as a few others and find them very informative! Thank You for what you do and hope you hit that thirty percent club this year!!!
 
Thanks everyone for your kind words!

Now to continue with the currency story for the Euro, the US dollar and US equities (like our TSP trading funds). Here is a weekly chart of the Euro against the US dollar index. Don't look at the numbers; becasue of the construction of the chart they won't mean anything. The trend is what is important. Note the SPX line chart, and area chart for the Euro against the US dollar. We can see when the Euro was rising relative to the US dollar, SPX was also rising in the areas labeled as QE1 and QE2. They were tracking. This is where Bernanke and the FED were lowering the value of US dollar by printing billions of dollars. You can also see two divergences (SPX rising while the Euro is falling); one in early 2010 and one now. There appears to be a 4-8 week lag, but the SPX should catch up to the downside. History may not always repeat itself, but this is ample basis for a warning. There seems to have been sufficient time elasped since the divergence began.

Euro_1_04_12.png






Uptrend Autotracker check: #711 +0.02
 
Last edited:
Confirmation coming from CNBC (since they are a contrary indicator). Tenor has turned decidedly bullish and all scheduled bear contributors have been rescheduled. :) Kernan, although frustrated that he could not find lots of support for his 30% growth prediction for the year, is nonetheless throwing caution to the winds.
 
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