Uptrend's Account Talk

[Dutchy]

Thanks for posting, Uptrend, I'm always interested in your graphs and analysis. A break from here at 1216 down to 1158 is 58 points with a your turnaround at 11/28, that's quite some drop in just a few days! Plenty of news to digest next week..

 

[Uptrend]

F fund is a sell today. My system goes to G. Looks like support will be broken at SPX 1187, so 1158 now in play.

 

[cak165]

Uptrend, aside from the technicals, what do you think the trading will be like with most managers gone Friday and probably tomorrow? How would that effect your Monday 28th date for a turn in the market?

 

[Uptrend]

Uptrend, aside from the technicals, what do you think the trading will be like with most managers gone Friday and probably tomorrow? How would that effect your Monday 28th date for a turn in the market?

Thre trend is down. I don't think there will be any light volume Thanksgiving rally. Light volume tends to push prices up, but this year appears to be trumped by the debt load in Europe. There is also a chance that the market might keep gong down right past the SPX 1150 area and challenge or break the October lows. In that case the Nov 28 turn date would be a continuation of the downtrend, with the next turn date near Dec 15. It is unkown (to me anyway) if the SPX 1150 area will hold, as in my previous charts and assunmptions. If it is blown by, then the wave count will need revision. Normally once some of a wave count structure develops, one can use principles of the wave count to project - but then again the black swan trumps technicals.

As long as the VIX remains elevated above 30, it is a scary market. IMO, wait for the best trades, and this is not one of them.

 

[Uptrend]

Happy thanksgiving all. Life is more than following the markets (although it is fun and my wife says I am obsessed). I am thankful for life and health today. I am thankful for the love in our family and for our faith in God. I am thankful for friends and for cyber friends on the TSP board. May you be richly blessed today. PS Try and keep the thanksgiving meal under 7000 calories! And go Packers!

 

[eccougar]

Packers continue to look impressive and I would like to see them go undefeated.

 

[Uptrend]

Fibonacci target has been hit(0.618) or or SPX or 1159. Wait and see where market is going. It is oversold but US dollar has strength. Caution

 

[Mcqlives]

Fibonacci target has been hit(0.618) or or SPX or 1159. Wait and see where market is going. It is oversold but US dollar has strength. Caution

A few white swans next week and we could see a nice rebound. All things considered the US is sitting pretty good and is oversold. If we could keep the EU contagion, and the resulting strength in the dollar, out of our TSP funds somehow I think we could be sitting pretty in the growth department. But, if black swans are flying we are in for a long holiday season.

Have a great weekend and glad to see you posting regularly again!

 

[Khotso]

Packers continue to look impressive and I would like to see them go undefeated.

Cringe!!! Big Patriots fan here. That would hurt bigtime!

 

[cak165]

Well folks, apologize for fewer posts lately, as I have been busy balancing two jobs and then keeping an eye on the market. Anyway here is my take: You know we had a large pennant, and it has broken down. IMO this is not a fake-out but a real break. The chart below shows what I think is going on. Or course, I could be wrong but this is a fairly high probability based on the evidence. I have used two different methods to arrive at the SPX 1158 area as being the bottom before a turn takes place. The time projection by my methodology, is Nov 28, as the turn date.

Uptrend, I know you changed your prediction a bit last week but this was spot on had you stuck to it and the market does indeed turn from here and moves higher...

 

[Uptrend]

Uptrend, I know you changed your prediction a bit last week but this was spot on had you stuck to it and the market does indeed turn from here and moves higher...

Yes that was my 11/18/2011 #2259 post.

That is not majic btw but simply empirical and determistic evidence, by studying TA. These relationships have little to do with world events - that just a cover story that CNBC uses.

Anyway why would I not post a buy signal, if I were pretty sure the market may turn up? Well, for one I was not 100% sure, as market timing is about risk/reward after all. Next, there is absolutely no confirmation yet that a market turn upward "trend" has occurred. Mr market is still in a downtrend. I know we had an insane rally today, but the trend is not biting -yet. Short-term momentum is up, but trend is taking a yawn. My uptrend system looks at a variety of things and derives relationaships, but is a trend system. When the trend speaks the system will "buy". Many times there is an initial big push, and then either a retest of the low or a slightly higher low. We have not seen that yet. Call this the trend wake-up window. Also, IMO SPX 1187 is a dividing line; the market must get above that level to go anywhere. It's not to say that a buy won't be triggered below that level, but that level must be overcome for any market upward sustainability.

I am slightly more optimistic that we will have a Chritstmas rally, but we shall see. If this is the real deal, it should show itself in 1-4 trading sessions. Upward projections may be anywhere from 1293-1420 (quite a range). We need to get some market markers if it is indeed going this way. Downside could be anywhere from 1074-940. Ditto for markers.

Lets see how Europe's various gov bond sales turn out this week. That and the Euro/USD pair should be a clue.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Yes that was my 11/18/2011 #2259 post.

That is not majic btw but simply empirical and determistic evidence, by studying TA. These relationships have little to do with world events - that just a cover story that CNBC uses.

Anyway why would I not post a buy signal, if I were pretty sure the market may turn up? Well, for one I was not 100% sure, as market timing is about risk/reward after all. Next, there is absolutely no confirmation yet that a market turn upward "trend" has occurred. Mr market is still in a downtrend. I know we had an insane rally today, but the trend is not biting -yet. Short-term momentum is up, but trend is taking a yawn. My uptrend system looks at a variety of things and derives relationaships, but is a trend system. When the trend speaks the system will "buy". Many times there is an initial big push, and then either a retest of the low or a slightly higher low. We have not seen that yet. Call this the trend wake-up window. Also, IMO SPX 1187 is a dividing line; the market must get above that level to go anywhere. It's not to say that a buy won't be triggered below that level, but that level must be overcome for any market upward sustainability.

I am slightly more optimistic that we will have a Chritstmas rally, but we shall see. If this is the real deal, it should show itself in 1-4 trading sessions. Upward projections may be anywhere from 1293-1420 (quite a range). We need to get some market markers if it is indeed going this way. Downside could be anywhere from 1074-940. Ditto for markers.

Lets see how Europe's various gov bond sales turn out this week. That and the Euro/USD pair should be a clue.

1420 would be very nice!

 

[Uptrend]

Here is an updated SPX chart, showing a bullish channel and a bearish channel. I ask, which way? I don't know but will be watching. Here is my thinking: If a bullish outcome I expect a retest of the lower bullish channel line coming around 1168. I know we are below the SPX 1187 pivot (which is also important), but channel lines tend to retest off lows. And this would be a higher low. So watch this level. A failure here, and down Mr. market goes. Both the bullish and bearish channels are valid with at least 2 touch points and parallel lines. So, IMO the market is at an inflection point. Kind of like nuetral on a teeter todder. So far, the downtrend is still in force, until it isn't. All I have seen so far is working off an oversold condition. You can see price is sitting in the middle of a large bear channel (green dotted channel lines) and below the 50 and 200 ema's. Am I excited about a rally? Not yet.

 

[Uptrend]

This is an outrage. Ben B and the Fed playing God, manipulating the market. We knew QE3 was coming. But who knew it was going to be back doored through European banks? Little cloudy on where the new money is coming from; perhaps the printing presses? And whatever kind of swap arrangements occur; do you think US will really get repaid or fully repaid? Or is this pure and simple; an expansion of the money supply to prevent bank frreeze-ups? I have a theory that some large American banks (BAC,C,JPM,GS) have significant European exposure and the Fed is worrying about a cascading domino scenario of failures. Delay the crisis, kick the can down the road. Get ready for inflation big time; especially in food and energy (which ironically the Gov excludes). What a bunch of crooks - pushing the small people overboard, while the big people get what they want (They were probably all fully invested when the announcement was read).

Now there is some chatter out there that a large European bank was about to fail.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/did-large-european-bank-almost-fail-last-night

This is a very dangerous market. We had a downtrend confirmation, and are very near to an uptrend, in only 3 trading sessions. But is it real? That is what I am trying to figure out. Meanwhile I am on the sidelines with no buy signal, despite the 7%+ rally. Some of my indicators are on buy, but not all. Lets see what tomorrow brings.

 

[jkenjohnson]

This is an outrage. Ben B and the Fed playing God, manipulating the market. We knew QE3 was coming. But who knew it was going to be back doored through European banks? Little cloudy on where the new money is coming from; perhaps the printing presses? And whatever kind of swap arrangements occur; do you think US will really get repaid or fully repaid? Or is this pure and simple; an expansion of the money supply to prevent bank frreeze-ups? I have a theory that some large American banks (BAC,C,JPM,GS) have significant European exposure and the Fed is worrying about a cascading domino scenario of failures. Delay the crisis, kick the can down the road. Get ready for inflation big time; especially in food and energy (which ironically the Gov excludes). What a bunch of crooks - pushing the small people overboard, while the big people get what they want (They were probably all fully invested when the announcement was read).

Now there is some chatter out there that a large European bank was about to fail.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/did-large-european-bank-almost-fail-last-night

This is a very dangerous market. We had a downtrend confirmation, and are very near to an uptrend, in only 3 trading sessions. But is it real? That is what I am trying to figure out. Meanwhile I am on the sidelines with no buy signal, despite the 7%+ rally. Some of my indicators are on buy, but not all. Lets see what tomorrow brings.

The present comdition of the world economy is scary, to say the least.

 

[Cactus]

That's the way this world works, Uptrend. The big gorillas at the top make their money off of us little guys at the bottom.

This is only going to get worse over the next 10 years as the baby boomers retire and pull their money out to live on. That means the gorillas will need to grab more from us who remain. The best we can do is try not to be on the absolute bottom. The way my wife describes it is: "stay on top of the shifting garbage." Think of the Star Wars trash compactor chamber on the death star here.

 

[Happy_Trails]

And now the big boys will probably pull the rug out from under the market again after this big move or maybe this time it's different? The shifting garbage analogy is great, Cactus.

 

[Mapper]

This is why people like physical gold. Not that I advocate it, but just saying this is why people like it.

 

[Happy_Trails]

This is why people like physical gold. Not that I advocate it, but just saying this is why people like it.

Yes, physical gold is tangible. Our TSP accounts don't seem real to me sometimes. I worry that no matter what the account value says on paper, it may magically disappear at some point due to catastrophic failure of the economic system. But it is what it is and we move on.

 

[Mapper]

That and inflation can erode numerical gains...of course it has the opposite effect on debt, provided incomes keep up. Which is why an arbitrary long-term pay freeze, with no knowledge of where inflation might be, is just plain bad policy.