Uptrend's Account Talk

[KevinD]

Yes, physical gold is tangible. Our TSP accounts don't seem real to me sometimes. I worry that no matter what the account value says on paper, it may magically disappear at some point due to catastrophic failure of the economic system. But it is what it is and we move on.

Not to mention the other 2 legs of the FERS stool... :worried:

 

[Cactus]

Not to mention the other 2 legs of the FERS stool... :worried:

I hear you there, Kevin. I don't expect to get anything from Social Security. I figure by the time I get there, they will have taken it away from federal employees by accusing us of double-dipping since we already have a federal pension through FERS. The only question I have now is how much of that FERS pension they are going to tax away from me because I still have a few bucks in TSP?

 

[cak165]

Yes that was my 11/18/2011 #2259 post.

That is not majic btw but simply empirical and determistic evidence, by studying TA. These relationships have little to do with world events - that just a cover story that CNBC uses.

Anyway why would I not post a buy signal, if I were pretty sure the market may turn up? Well, for one I was not 100% sure, as market timing is about risk/reward after all. Next, there is absolutely no confirmation yet that a market turn upward "trend" has occurred. Mr market is still in a downtrend. I know we had an insane rally today, but the trend is not biting -yet. Short-term momentum is up, but trend is taking a yawn. My uptrend system looks at a variety of things and derives relationaships, but is a trend system. When the trend speaks the system will "buy". Many times there is an initial big push, and then either a retest of the low or a slightly higher low. We have not seen that yet. Call this the trend wake-up window. Also, IMO SPX 1187 is a dividing line; the market must get above that level to go anywhere. It's not to say that a buy won't be triggered below that level, but that level must be overcome for any market upward sustainability.

I am slightly more optimistic that we will have a Chritstmas rally, but we shall see. If this is the real deal, it should show itself in 1-4 trading sessions. Upward projections may be anywhere from 1293-1420 (quite a range). We need to get some market markers if it is indeed going this way. Downside could be anywhere from 1074-940. Ditto for markers.

Lets see how Europe's various gov bond sales turn out this week. That and the Euro/USD pair should be a clue.

I'm starting to think that if the employment report comes out above consensus tomorrow (12/2) then this market might be off to the races into the end of the year. The show of force by the central bankers yesterday may have dissuaded the bears from keeping their positions and the bulls to finally jump in, and I think some money might chase the rally if there's no setback from Europe or elsewhere. It's obvious Bernanke and the ECB are going to do whatever they can not to let things get out of hand, it's tough to be on the other side of the printing presses - time to scoop up gold as well, while we can...

 

[Uptrend]

A turn lower is shaping up in the market. Bonds and the US dollar have a bid, and topping tail on SPX. Looking for Monday to open down. A consolidtion to between SPX 1220 and 1233 would be nice.

 

[Bquat]

A turn lower is shaping up in the market. Bonds and the US dollar have a bid, and topping tail on SPX. Looking for Monday to open down. A consolidtion to between SPX 1220 and 1233 would be nice.

I agree with you, I was looking at 1235.

 

[Uptrend]

The uptrend is not confirmed yet. Oh I know we had a violent short squeeze and short covering off the SPX 1158 turning point that shot up most of the distance in 3 trading days near the start of the month. But now what do we have? (see chart)

1) A bearish rising wedge.
2) We do not have a bullish arrangement of the moving averages; the 10 ema is still below the 20 ema (not on this chart)
3) The accumulation/distribution line has a divergence with SPX cash price (ie it is going down while price is rising). Note how it was rising with price in October.
4) The 13 period bollinger band lower line has not turned up, and is in fact turning down. It is not heading for the 34 period bollinger band yet, as in October. This suggests some weakness is ahead.
5) The SPX cash has not closed above the 200 sma yet coming in at 1264. This is the dividing line between a healthy market and a bear. If it cant clear, we may get a negative reaction.
6) The stochastic is at overbought levels.



We need several closes above SPX 1264 or a retest of the 1240-1233 area with a positive result for the uptrend to be confirmed (I have other proofs the uptrend is not confirmed that are part of my uptrend system). This is just a little visual chart TA.

The European bailout could end well, or badly. Market turn dates include this Thursday, December 15 and December 28. Once scenario I am thinking may play out is that the market has weakness starting this Thursday to December 14 and then a rally to December 28 and down after that. December 28 is the most important turn date. Standing by watching.

 

[Uptrend]

A buy signal on Uptrend system. Safe for C S I as long as SPX 1233 to 1240 holds.

 

[Khotso]

A buy signal on Uptrend system. Safe for C S I as long as SPX 1233 to 1240 holds.

Well, it did hold. Hope it works out for you tomorrow -- I think it will based on what I've read and seen tonight. I decided to hang with F another day -- that's a good sign for you, every time I decide not to pull the trigger prices rocket the next day.

 

[cak165]

The European bailout could end well, or badly. Market turn dates include this Thursday, December 15 and December 28. Once scenario I am thinking may play out is that the market has weakness starting this Thursday to December 14 and then a rally to December 28 and down after that. December 28 is the most important turn date. Standing by watching.

Well Uptrend, there was weakness Thursday and if the markets hold gains today, we may continue for a while. As I mentioned in an earlier post, Tom DeMark was looking at 1330 by Dec. 22 so we'll see how it all shakes out, it should be an interesting week coming up...

 

[Uptrend]

Here is some market close TA for 12/09 Friday. BTW TA has nothing to do with fundamental analysis. I look at the weekly SPX chart:



First of all the market has retraced 0.618 of the previous distance between the highs this spring (SPX 1371) and low in October (SPX 1075) at the close this week. So, IMO this is a nuetral to bearish indicator. You would like to see escape velocity, and so far we have not seen it. The 5 week ma is below the 10 week ma. For the uptrend to continue, the 5 ma needs to turn back up and get above the 10 ma. The weekly candlestick is a spinning top and that is indecision.

On the plus side the ROC has a positive slope, from the start of October and that is bullish. The 5,3,3 stochastic has turned up, with a positive cross and that is bullish. The market put in a higher low 2 weeks ago at 1159, turned up last week, and that is bullish. This week had a positve close, despite some weakness. The upper bollinger band suggests SPX 1325 is possible (perhaps up to 1359 on a daily basis using other TA methods).

So, flash or crash? Is Santa out there?

 

[Uptrend]

Get ready for an upside surprise. At least that is what the European weekly charts say:

1) $DAX (Germany) >200ma, Stochastic > 50 Possible upside potential 11% to bolinger band (BB).
2) $CAC (France) <50 & 200 ma, On support at 20 ma Stochastic > 50 Upside potential 10% to BB, and is about halfway up the August big red candle.
3) $FTSE (England) >20 ma, <50 & 200 ma Stochastic >50 Upside potential 3.2% to 50 ma and 4.5% to BB and chart resistance.
4) $INE (Italy) <20,50 & 200 ma Stochastic <50 Upside potential 18% to BB,and halfway up August big red candle.

And Japan
5) $Nikk <20 50 & 200 ma Stochastic <50 Upside potential 11% to BB &50 ma and is halfway up August big red candle.

And the US dollar
A double top on $USD Stochastic has a negative cross at 81 (overbought).

I am thinking if the italy fears subside a little, a huge 10% rally will unfold. This may be in the US SPX 1350-1375 area for a top. Long term view still looks bearish however.

 

[Uptrend]

Some weakness and volatility should continue through Wednesday, by my time indicators. Still on a buy as long as SPX 1233 holds. A shot to SPX 1220 would put the buy at risk. Sentiment is confirming a buy, and VIX did not move porportionally and is still below the real fear 30 level. IMO, probably another chance to get in. Something should resolve in the Eurozone?

 

[Uptrend]

The market is struggling to advance. Based on time and cycles, I was thinking a blow off top was coming and a Christmas rally, but so far coal. I still think the next turn date (big down) is coming on December 28 +-/1 day as I mentioned previously in post 2286. Breadth is very poor, and the bear market continues. I notice that the $VIX is still trapped below the 200 ma and that is good for an advance, but sentiment on the other hand is nuetral. SPX might only crawl back to the declining trendline near 1255 or so over the coming days. There is also considerable downside risk, so this trade is not very good. Quite a shaky start today, but world news is probably a factor. I wish I could be more rosy. Oh, small caps are doing better relative to large caps. But you probably already know that.

 

[Bquat]

Just thought I would say " Hi " as you passed me.

 

[cak165]

What are your charts saying now, Uptrend? Still see that major turn day on the 28th or has it moved?

 

[Uptrend]

What are your charts saying now, Uptrend? Still see that major turn day on the 28th or has it moved?

Nothing has changed. The internals under the market are not very good. In fact bad. But, there is hope of a turn after tomorrow, as I see the futures are up tonight and SPX might just get over the 200 ma coming in at 1260. So the trade (and insanity, not fundamentals) continues. Since my entry point was several days early the trade might go on a day or two past Dec 28. We need to wait for a decent sell signal, and I don't see one at this time. Many money managers did not make very much $$ this year and IMO are chasing this mini Santa Claus year ending surge. So that should drive it higher. On the Elliot wave front, I believe we are in a wave 5 up that should end between 1293 and 1311. I plan to either start to take some $ off the table in increments soon, switch to EFA if Europe takes off and the US dollar falls, or switch to the F fund if bonds get oversold. It all depends on the daily play by play, so I don't know yet.

The VIX is interesting and mirrors the SPX, but in the opposite direction. Look at this this chart:


You can see open gaps that have not been filled at the arrows on the left side of the chart. Note some above have been filled now. The green dotted line is where I think might be the turning point, at gap support for the lowest open gap. Note the support line that broke on 12/09/11 with the big wide red bar. A break below the 200 ma also occured on the same day. Hang in there for year end cash. Merry Christmas!

 

[Nordic]

On the Elliot wave front, I believe we are in a wave 5 up that should end between 1293 and 1311.

Daneric is looking at similar levels on the EW counts. He's been harping on a nasty minor 3 down following this current upwave for quite awhile, it'll be interesting to see how that plays out.

"Preferred price range for Minor 2 peak is 1293-1310 SPX. After Minor 2 peaks, Minor 3 down occurs which is a very bearish and nasty wave down. Target: sub 1000 SPX. But we are getting ahead of ourselves perhaps."

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/

 

[Birchtree]

"Since the October low, a strong wedge pattern has formed in the S&P 500 (SPY). The longer this wedge pattern persists, the larger the subsequent breakout move becomes." Wait for it my friends.

 

[Uptrend]

My buy signal is still in force, but I don't like some of the internals. So I am reducing risk today. 80% G and 20% C

 

[cak165]

On the Elliot wave front, I believe we are in a wave 5 up that should end between 1293 and 1311.

Daneric is looking at similar levels on the EW counts. He's been harping on a nasty minor 3 down following this current upwave for quite awhile, it'll be interesting to see how that plays out.

"Preferred price range for Minor 2 peak is 1293-1310 SPX. After Minor 2 peaks, Minor 3 down occurs which is a very bearish and nasty wave down. Target: sub 1000 SPX. But we are getting ahead of ourselves perhaps."

Don't know if it's worth risking 30-50 points from here for a top when the downside risk is close to 250 points? We may continue to melt-up with low volume next week but I'm not taking any chances with a long weekend and S&P threatening downgrades that may set off some nasty domino effects...It should be a quiet week next though, I doubt we'll hear much from Europe but you guys be careful because you know they'll try to pull that rug from under our feet when we feel most complacent...