Uptrend's Account Talk

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Intrepid_Timer said:
They say that imitation is the best form of flattery.............;)
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In all fairness, I have no clue how your premium service works or what you track. I am a scientist and have used various resources to study and observe how the market works over the past four years. My initial notions were schooled by the market. But life is continued learning. Because the market is made up of human participants the psychological aspect is certianly there, as modified by fear and greed. Technical analysis shows there is clear and undeniable symmetry in price and time. I have just arranged certian indicators to tell me what I need to know about support and resistance, sentiment, momentum, volatility, velocity, strength, breadth, pattern and time. Fair enough? Happy trading.
 
This is a strong move off the lows. So far SPX has gone 1336-1249 = 87 points. The next resistance place is the previous high in february of 1344, where there could be a pause and a little consolidatioin. The next real resistance and pivot area looks like 1361-1370. Taking the 1361-1370 area and using the midpoint 1366, we would have a 1366-1249 = 117 point climb from the low. Useing a 38.2 fibonacci retracement, Mr Market could retrace to 1321 area. A shallower 23.6% fibonacci wold put it at 1338. Using this same analysis and considering a twin high (1344) yields 1308 and 1322. Wednesday morning the market opened and gapped to 1321. So that is now gap support. It looks as if the 1320 area is some sort of support area any way you slice it.

Even though the TSP sentiment system says sell, my indicators suggest it is slightly early. Holding for now.
 
Uptrend said:
This is a strong move off the lows. So far SPX has gone 1336-1249 = 87 points. The next resistance place is the previous high in february of 1344, where there could be a pause and a little consolidatioin. The next real resistance and pivot area looks like 1361-1370. Taking the 1361-1370 area and using the midpoint 1366, we would have a 1366-1249 = 117 point climb from the low. Useing a 38.2 fibonacci retracement, Mr Market could retrace to 1321 area. A shallower 23.6% fibonacci wold put it at 1338. Using this same analysis and considering a twin high (1344) yields 1308 and 1322. Wednesday morning the market opened and gapped to 1321. So that is now gap support. It looks as if the 1320 area is some sort of support area any way you slice it.

Even though the TSP sentiment system says sell, my indicators suggest it is slightly early. Holding for now.
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Uptrend, Thanks for the report.
 
Thanks for the analysis Up. For what it's worth, I don't believe there's any attempt at imitation of IT going on, you've been helping people here for far too long for that.

I sincerely appreciate all the help / advice / analysis you give!
 
I have reviewed the charts and wave theory and the outcomes are mixed in the near term. SPX on the upside could stall at 1344 (the previous high) or the 1363-1367 area. On the downside there is gap support at 1321, gap fill at 1319 and strong support at 1306. Bullish sentiment has backed off a little, below a sell on my system. Not sure if the wave advance has ended yet, but there is no strong sell out there. 70% of top 10 leaders on Autotracker are fully invested. Holding for now.
 
As a general rule don't go into the bond (F) fund during the spring (April-May). This is because historically yields go up this time of year, which are bad for prices. QE2 is trying to keep the yields from rising in this manipulated market, but IMO they will probably rise anyway for the next 60 days of so. I see that the 50 sma has been below the 200 sma since early February on the AGG chart; again bad for bond prices.

The C/S trade on my Trendline system looks intact, and we have not seen SPX 1344 or 1362 yet. We have seen 1338 twice. I am expecting about a 50 point pullback at one of those topping points mentioned above 1338. It will all depend. My preference is a pullback from around the mid-1360's to around 1320 or slightly below, but really I have no clue - so will be watching closely for signs of uptrend decay.

I am not showing trade signals for the I fund at this time. Despite the recent gains, there is no confirmed uptrend based on the way I determine it. Then there is the weak US dollar that has added a bit of a boost.

In summary the market is coiling sideways in some kind of a flat in a narrow range, until the next big up day. Sentiment is cooling too. Still invested.
 
No resolution. I want to sell, but indicators say stay long. If the market can't get above SPX 1344 soon, I will bail. Still looking for 1365.
 
Oil could stop the market uptrend. But I don't think it is going much higher. There is a fair amount of resistance overhead in the $110-$120 range.

View attachment 10898

The SPX futures are up tonight (4-07). Appears to me that the market is coiling for a 20 handles up day. Am thinking either we see 1365 area by OEX next Friday, or retest the 1320-1313 area first then up. Futures show a wedge breakout to the upside, but that is low overnight volume. For all I know, that is a PPT move.

The I fund has not confirmed a buy signal and the F fund has a confirmed sell signal. Happy Trades.
 
SPX is just a couple points above gap support from a week ago Wednesday. Strong support is just under as well in the 1315-1313 area if the gap should fill. This uptrend from 1249 has only been pulling back about 20 points along the way, and the latest from 1338; hardly enough to waste a TSP trade on, considering you would also have to time it perfectly.

Looking at the futures tonight (Sunday), the US dollar might bounce back for a few days. The USD index made the 75.06 low. Also, looks to me like the oil advance is overbought and I see hints of a pullback from $113.
 
So far today the SPX has a inside day (harami) and so does the wilshire 4500 I use to track the S fund. However, not sure if they mean bearish or bullish. Need to see the final print at the end of the day.

Crude oil has backed off a slight amount into the $112 range; lets hope we are past the $113 high.

Gold is up another 1.4% and the US dollar is down about 1%

Market is going sideways.
 
There has been more price damage than one would expect just looking at the indicators, over the past few sessions. The internals are still holding up pretty well. The large cap is a little stornger than the small cap. Levels to watch: SPX must hold 1313 (close above), else the market is probably breaking down and it would be a sell. Looking at the futures right now, there is an upward slope on the MACD on the hourly chart with a value of 1313 (remember the futures have a approximate 5 point spread to the SPX to the downside).

I might shift more to the C fund, depending on how the small caps rebound, or don't.

Oil appears to have peaked. There is a big red candle with high volume on the futures with a current price of $107. Perhpas no $4.00 gas after all.
 
Here is a chart of the SPX with the VIX. Note what happened to the SPX at the VIX lows at the orange lines over the past 3 years. The VIX was even lower today. Bull market, or a market in conflict? Consider also that the financials (XLF) are falling apart. Equities appear to be responding to the weak dollar. IMHO a flash crash type risk is increasing. Professional traders are increasing out of the money option puts called skew, as this is their protection. The G fund is our protection.

View attachment 10960
 
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