Uptrend's Account Talk

[Uptrend]

Price Pattern Time
Getting close to a top. Could bore you with a bunch of reasons, but that is what TA is telling me. Might be a long wait to get in this year, perhaps for 3 months on the high side. Seems like it might be the battle of patience. Keep your fingers off the submit button till the fog clears.

Holding cash (G fund)

 

[Uptrend]

The I fund is in a confirmed downtrend as of today 1/10/11. Lets see if it spills into the american markets. So far C, and S are nuetral.

 

[Uptrend]

US dollar as tracked by UUP is sliding along the lower BB. Other indicators show it is close to a bottom. This should weigh on the market soon, and help carve out a top. EFA is above the top BB. How long can this go on? SPX is 143 handles above 200 sma. This is entering the twilight zone. VIX is on support going back to April 2010, so don't think it is going any lower. Also it's bullish falling wedge looks mature, and it was outside the lower BB 2 trading days ago. 8 0f last 11 January OEX weeks have been very negative. So, draw your own conclusion.

 

[Uptrend]

Small caps are falling apart, I fund next, then the large cap. Looks like the USD will now take off.

 

[Uptrend]

Also the long bond is bottoming, while the short bond is not; they are out of synch so x on the F fund

 

[Uptrend]

No TSP fund is worth buying today, so staying in G. Bond prices are flat to slightly down. The S fund will turn the fastest, but the RUT for example needs to get above about 783, and is trading at 772.72 currently.

I will post when the market turns come upon us, as I am very busy currently with job and other activities.

 

[Uptrend]

The VIX had a very long candlestick on the chart Friday, and the last time we saw one that long was when the downtrend started in April 2010. The candle pushed above the 20 and 50 sma in one day! It also poked out of the upper BB which shows some fear strength.

The level to watch is SPX 1261. If it breaks a correction will start. Downside projections would then be 7-9%.

A possible buy has appeared in bonds, and I am evaluating for a go/no go.

The banks have been relatively weak for the last several weeks that tells me the probability is there of rolling over.

Plus when the Bureau of Labor reported last week that the reason the unemployment rate ticked up was because of the snowstorms in the NE, when in fact the highest rates of ticking up were in sun belt states such as Florida. So is this the Bureau of fiction?

0.22% YTD in G Wow!

 

[Uptrend]

I may use my January IFT and go into bonds Monday the 31. I have looked at the bonds charts see that the 1-3 year bond price is in an uptrend, and that the 10, 20 and 30 year are basing and starting to turn upwards. It is not a buy via my indicators yet on the longer bonds, but close enough when considering the IFT in my pocket.

SPX is pointed down on the hourly chart, and 1261 is the breakdown level to watch.

 

[Uptrend]

Grab & Go going 100% F. AGG 3 days below BB

 

[Uptrend]

The TSP site froze and also the Autotracker would not let me log in even though I had the right password. Wanted to go 100% F. Tom plz help!

 

[Uptrend]

Market Update:

There are exactly 68 trading days between the last tow tops in SPX. Following the same timing, The 68 day top was hit on Monday February 14. I am looking for a decline into March 5.

Bonds trade (F fund) was triggered on February 7, as a Grab and Go. It has now turned into a trend trade for the F fund. Here is the hourly chart of $TNX 10 year yields. You can see the breadkdown of the wedge and the loss of momentum of the stochastic at the bottom of the chart. IMO we are just getting started. As fear creeps into the market the bond prices will surge.

Take the dumb money test. If you are on the sidelines for equities, do you feel like you are missing out and are jumping in, or have jumped in recently? This is part of the formula for a top. Missing out panic. Patience is required here.

View attachment 10625

 

[Uptrend]

My TSPTrendline System triggered the F trade about 10 days ago, and the trade continues. Will the equities first dips be bought? IMO, not this time. The SPX level to watch is 1271. That is the line in the sand.

Here is a chart of $USD and $TNX with price targets. As you can see the US treasury note price has a ways to run to real resistance. I am thinking the top ray near the 200 sma is where the turn might be in equities near 123, but I will look at other indicators as we go along. So the F trade continues.

View attachment 10656

 

[Bquat]

I'm hoping 1282 is the line in the sand before more QE2 moneys are put in to try to turn this at about 3% correction and breaking 1257 will bring all the bears in. JMO

 

[Uptrend]

Will the market advance or decline from here? That is the 64 million dollar question. Todays actions seems nothing more than a dead cat bounce, but we will see if it gets legs as the trading day develops. The bonds are still ticking up and not buying it.

Look at the following Russell and SPX cash charts for a broad view of what is going on. Keep in mind these are monthly charts, so each candle is one month.

View attachment 10669

View attachment 10670

First we see a broad downtrending channel going back several years. Next we see the markets clearing it. The RUT has been above for 3 months, and the SPX is trying to clear it this month. However, we see long upper shadow topping tails. Usually this means a reversal is in order. Once major lines clear they usually backtest. So I have marked (with a green color fill) the backtest area on the RUT, and have marked an example on the SPX where a backtest occurred. So the RUT could find support in the coming months, as it is stronger. But will the SPX cash find support? It is playing with danger.

BTW, the broad pattern could be an ABC move, with A and B completed and C still to come. On the long term view, we also see a left shoulder, head, and neckline near 1024 on SPX cash. So, it is important that the market stay above the broad channle lines, or we will go back and retest the 666 SPX low in the coming years.

 

[FAB1]

Interesting charts, Up.

I hope you are right about the backtest as I would like to go "whole hog" at a considerably lower price than where we have been this week, come March. But we have that 1st of the month "boost" looming right ahead of our first IFT day. If we get a Monday boost then it just might have the support to keep on a'going and the lower buy-in op will just be a "what if"

 

[Uptrend]

My Grab & Go System has posted a buy to the C S I funds. A trend is not confirmed on these, but is confirmed for F

I see more dollar weakness on the weekly charts of UUP and $USD. Momentum is up on the equities. My guess is that we go test SPX 1363 area in the next 5 sessions or so.

 

[Uptrend]

I was gone for a month, but anyway, I am back. A buy signal has been given 3 days ago on Wednesday. My revised system now has had four buy or sell signals so far this year. I will be following it closely for the rest of the year, and posting my moves on my signature line and in the Autotracker, so lets see how it goes. It works best for the C and S funds, and the I fund, when the dollar is trending.

I think this is the real deal. The SPX has regained important support at 1313. SPX 1363 is probably in the cards now, as there is little resistance until then. The Nasdaq 100 looks a little iffy, but the Wilshire 4500 by which I track the S fund, has broken a wedge to the upside, and regained the 20 ema, 3 sessions ago.

 

[Uptrend]

As go financials so go the market? For the market to advance and be the "real deal", XLF needs to pick up. In the last 6 daily sessions, XLF has ended with indecision 3 times; a doji candle and the chart is trendless. Looks kind of sick. It does have a higher low however, off of 15.74. So, after further review, I think Mr Market is still in a trading range and not a solid uptrend, yet.

The USD (dollar) is heading for a 9 year low, thanks to Ben B. If/wehn it ever turns, you might as well cross off the I fund as a trading option, except for knee jerk type trades. IMO, as long as the Fed keeps the buying program alive under QE2 and barring more serious world events that trump chart technicals, the market should advance. Looking for a high around the 1365-1400 area on SPX within another month. In terms of time, a high by around May 5, then a low to 1250-1275 by early June, then a right shoulder high to 1345 by late June. Then bust the 1249-1275 neckline and a retrace to good support at the 1130 area during the summer. Just a guess, cuz nobody really knows.

PS These thoughts are my own. I am not quoting anybody. Note that Federal Times, Military Times etc.

 

[Uptrend]

Low resistance ahead. Next stop is the SPX 1340 area (possibly by Friday), where we might get a small pullback. Otherwise market should cruise to the 1365 area. As long as the fear is around, the market will rally. EWT and channels suggest that top might be as high as 1500 by early summer. Of course the US dollar will be worthless, so the wealth effect is probably a negative even though the balance sheet says more.

 

[Uptrend]

SPX 1460 to 1500 is a real possibility over the coming days. Look at the channel in the weekly timeframe and where it goes. Note the accelerated trendline the market is in now.

View attachment 10851

On the signature line, my TSPTrendline System is working great now after more than a year of development and fixing. It uses 8 market indicators arranged to get at market forces that influence the price action. Watch it call it right over the coming months. I will start showing monthly performance. As of right now, I am not calling the I fund, but only the F, C, S funds.

I have removed Grab & Go and replaced with Rabbit. Unlike TSPTrendline this system minimizes market time and makes gains quick and then gets out. It is possible that it may precede the TSPTrendline system when the market is coming off an oversold condition, or it may terminate abruptly. Rabbit lowers the risk because of more limited market time exposure. Rabbit will call any of the TSP funds. I will start showing monthly performance.