Uptrend's Account Talk

[Uptrend]

That sweet aroma of Bull manure is called greed. Don't let it blind you. Uptrend made some great points.

The USD is consolidating today. The 20 and 50 emas are on a steep uphill climb. Until proved different, I will expect the USD to continue to have an inverse relationship with the market. Call this the short lived dollar rally.

The Euro/SSD pair is testing overhead resistance. Nothing has changed. It is still showing weakness.

The SPX is trading with below average volume so far today. The MACD histogram is still below the 0 line and with a negative divergence setting up. The market is testing overhead resistance and is slamming into the 20 ema. The 20 ema is still below the 50 ema which is bearish. The RSI is slightly above the value of 50, but is showing a negative divergence. Further, there is much overhead resistance on the chart. To have a convincing breakout, the market needs to close above 1104.

The Vix is sitting on 50 ema support and the stochastic is nearing oversold. Looks like an upward sloping W pattern which is bullish (bearish for the market).

Gap and crap?

 

[350zCommTech]

Gap and crap?

Exactly what I was thinking this morning.

 

[Steadygain]

That sweet aroma of Bull manure is called greed. Don't let it blind you. Uptrend made some great points.

350z :embarrest:

You misunderstand -- seriously

I think Uptrend is amazing !! and I think you are too !!



In my situation it's not 'Greed' at all --- it's immunity --- because I seriously don't care how the Markets go from one day to the next. So when I 'RISE' on any good day -- and especially if it happens over and over --- it's not because I'm greedy -- it's totally because I'm 100% in High Risk. So I take whatever the Markets throw out and when they go down it's no big deal.

But somehow -- the thrill of 'Victory' when the smartest guys are saying 'Keep Out' -- makes it more fun.

 

[poolman]

The USD is consolidating today. The 20 and 50 emas are on a steep uphill climb. Until proved different, I will expect the USD to continue to have an inverse relationship with the market. Call this the short lived dollar rally.

The Euro/SSD pair is testing overhead resistance. Nothing has changed. It is still showing weakness.

The SPX is trading with below average volume so far today. The MACD histogram is still below the 0 line and with a negative divergence setting up. The market is testing overhead resistance and is slamming into the 20 ema. The 20 ema is still below the 50 ema which is bearish. The RSI is slightly above the value of 50, but is showing a negative divergence. Further, there is much overhead resistance on the chart. To have a convincing breakout, the market needs to close above 1104.

The Vix is sitting on 50 ema support and the stochastic is nearing oversold. Looks like an upward sloping W pattern which is bullish (bearish for the market).

Gap and crap?

And Tomorrow We will have a down day. :suspicious:

 

[coolhand]

And Tomorrow We will have a down day. :suspicious:

I suspect that today will mark a top for this week, but next week is more cloudy for me. It depends on how much selling we see and whether it will be enough to establish a solid IT low (assuming we haven't seen it just yet). I'm making the assumption that another ST reversal is close at hand and if it happens I'm not sure whether the SS can remain on a buy. We're only a week and half from new IFTs so I'm seriously considering pulling the plug in the next few minutes.

 

[poolman]

I suspect that today will mark a top for this week, but next week is more cloudy for me. It depends on how much selling we see and whether it will be enough to establish a solid IT low (assuming we haven't seen it just yet). I'm making the assumption that another ST reversal is close at hand and if it happens I'm not sure whether the SS can remain on a buy. We're only a week and half from new IFTs so I'm seriously considering pulling the plug in the next few minutes.

Good Day to pull the plug IMO.

 

[poolman]

Good Day to pull the plug IMO.

And may I also say Congrat's to those who caught this E Wave.

 

[Birchtree]

The bull market will power higher as long as people don't start buying into it in droves and as long as the prevailing belief is that it's a cyclical bull within a secular bear.

 

[Steadygain]

Uptrend,
I'm on my way up to meet Grandma to have some cookies with milk ..... yummmy yum yumm :toung:

...well, I'm trying desperately to let a lot of air out of my ballon and hope the Markets will respond with a correction --- ohh please -- pretty please --- cause I'd love for you to enjoy them too.

It's kind of weird but I feel like I'm on a 'Up Eleavator' -- 9 day :laugh:

We'll see -- anyway if things work out I'll come back down and we'll get together -- GL cause these are 'crazy times'

 

[JTH]

Uptrend, your EW picture hasn't changed right. What bullish PO would change your mind? I always admire your ability to stay focused, direct & unemotional when it comes to these markets.

 

[Uptrend]

Uptrend, your EW picture hasn't changed right. What bullish PO would change your mind? I always admire your ability to stay focused, direct & unemotional when it comes to these markets.

A lower high is still in play unless the 61.8% fibonacci level is taken out, and that comes in around 1108. So we can now count the zigzag down to 1044 as intermediate wave one of major wave one and now we are on the countertrend intermediate wave two. Under this scenario, the intermediate wave three of major wave one should be longer than intermediate wave one (SPX 1150-1044 = 106 points).

Today we have a tug of war between the USD and the market. The USD appears to be winning the battle at the moment, and is stalling and even reversing the equities advance. UUP is up 0.17 ticks.

 

[Uptrend]

Daily momentum indicators are in a buy mode, while weekly indicators are in a sell mode. This is a conflict. Price weakness or time is required to cause allignment. Weekly almost always wins. Therefore, IMO price weakness is coming; probably after the OEX this Friday.

Because of the USD strength, the S fund should be winning over the C and I fund right now. The C fund has multi-national dimensions and this drags it down.

The SPX seems stalled right at 1100 this AM. I am sure there is a huge short interest sitting right above, from the 1104 to 1110 zone, based on charts TA. The next rip should be relatively severe, signaling the third intermediate wave down. Of course you need to examine the market for yourself and come to your own conclusions.

 

[350zCommTech]

The SPX seems stalled right at 1100 this AM. I am sure there is a huge short interest sitting right above, from the 1104 to 1110 zone, based on charts TA. The next rip should be relatively severe, signaling the third intermediate wave down. Of course you need to examine the market for yourself and come to your own conclusions.

Currency shorts got squeezed on that pump. Look at gold and oil.

 

[Uptrend]

Currency shorts got squeezed on that pump. Look at gold and oil.

Oil made a little gap up (USO) but now is ready to crap. Negative divergences on the chart and it is overbought. Gold (GLD) is trading sideways.

EU/USD currency pair still looks weak to me. UUP (USD powershares) looks like consolidation above the 200 ema, while the 20 and 50 ema's catch up. The moving average trio is properly alligned with the 20 above the 50 and both of these trying to catch the 200 ema.

 

[Steadygain]

Daily momentum indicators are in a buy mode, while weekly indicators are in a sell mode. This is a conflict.

The next rip should be relatively severe, signaling the third intermediate wave down. Of course you need to examine the market for yourself and come to your own conclusions.

I don't see the 'conflict' if the weekly indicators are in sell mode and I believe most of us 'feel something comming'

I see the .5 bump as a desperate move because the 'powers that be' have been doing everything possible to prevent the Markets from going through a 'Panic Driven Correction' -- or a Correction of any sizeable magnitude.

Since 12/09 things have largely sucked -- and everyone knows it and the longer they stay that way the more it seems a sizeable correction is in order.

They can't lower the Rates -- and no huge overnight 'Stimulus Package' or any other garbage is going to do anything but make 'us' look even more desperate. Right now if things looked any more desperate -- SELL OFF TIME !!

Anyway -- I think you've been on target and I'm lucky I didn't get burned. The Markets seem more and more impossible to predict and deep down I have to believe 'Manipulation' is largely ruling and holding things up as long as possible

 

[Bullitt]

Daily buy, weekly sell. I'm having the same conflict myself.

 

[Uptrend]

Fed 430 PM EST announcement on raising the discount rate, charged to banks from 0.5 to 0.75%. Dollar blasts off, futures fall.

The Bear Report. Lets do the math for major wave one down on SPX:
Whatever the reasons, this is the start of intermediate wave three down IMHO. Intermediate wave one ended at 1044, intermediate wave two at 1108 yesterday. Wave three should unfold in a 1 2 3 4 5 zigzag down and be impulsive. Intermediate wave one was 106 points, and intermediate wave 2 was a close 61.8% fibonacci retracement. (1150.45-1044.5= 105.95 *0.618 = 65.47+ 1044.5 = 1109.97) The high today was 1108.24, so is within 1.73 ticks. Now intermediate wave three should be impulsive and longer than wave one. This is a pattern in bear markets. Under EWT, if wave 3 is longer than wave one, then waves 1 and 5 are relatively equal. If we assume that wave 3 is 1.382 times wave one, we have a downside target of 961.75. That support happens to be the peak of the June 2009 advance. If we assume the intermediate wave 4 retraces 0.382%, we have a countertrend target of 1017 (But cannot overlap wave 1 low at 1044). Then by equality with wave one, intermediate wave five yields an approximate downside target of 911. That is a broad area of support and major wave one down will be finished. BTW, a head and shoulders breakdown on the chart with the neckline near 1030 yields a 900 target. All signs point here, and then a massive countertrend rally should occur and retrace up to about 1055-1060 for major wave two.

Now slight variations could occur, but IMO this is the real deal. Prove me wrong.

 

[Steadygain]

The Bear Report. Lets do the math for major wave one down on SPX:

yields a 900 target.

IMO this is the real deal. Prove me wrong.

Uptrend,
I wouldn't even try to prove you wrong

You're da Man --- I put your stuff first (no offense to anyone else)

 

[Birchtree]

"It is a long time since someone came out with a bullish call on behalf of the Wave Principle. It is a sheer but utterly destructive fact in the end that for the past 20 years or so the Wave Principle has in some way become the tool of the permabears. " I don't recall where the quote originated from but I believe it to be accurate.

 

[Uptrend]

"It is a long time since someone came out with a bullish call on behalf of the Wave Principle. It is a sheer but utterly destructive fact in the end that for the past 20 years or so the Wave Principle has in some way become the tool of the permabears. " I don't recall where the quote originated from but I believe it to be accurate.

Not true. Waves are a tool to gage market direction up or down. Sometimes the unfolding has different interpretations and herein lies the problem. Neat stuff to play around with at any rate.

BTW I have discovered something this week that is simple yet profound. I have been a student of TA for 5 years now and have just realized how good this unnamed TA indicator really is and how it can help TSP trading. Bushwhacker has been updated with the retrofit. Standby for launch. May have to wait for some more bad weather to pass. Kudos for those in the winners circle, but the race has just started. There are icy slopes, don't fly off the path and crash and burn.