Uptrend's Account Talk

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Thanks Minnow, nnut, nasa1974, and Gumby! Feel like I have been rescued.

I notice by looking at the TNX and TYX charts is that there are descending triangles in the daily timeframe (bearish sign for yields) and the MACD histogram is pointing down and below the 0 line on the weekly charts (bearish sign for yields). So I think there should be more green ahead in the very short term for F, despite this bump in the road.

Why short term? Because on the TNX weekly we have a breakout of a long term trendline that is now backtesting. TYX has the same pattern if you exclude the upper shadow on one weekly bar. Based on MACD histogram cycling, it looks like the big turn in bond yields is coming in 4-12 weeks from now. I have posted the TNX chart below. For the TNX, after the backtest of the breakout, the only thing left in the path is the 200 ema. Sometimes, we see repeated backtests so the yields could slide lower for a time. This chart is very Bullish for yields and is death for the F fund when it ramps up.

View attachment 8255
 
...and it looks like many of your oscillators are overbought, not anywhere near a buy signal. Yep, they did it once again. Cook up a nice story about a possible Greece bailout, squeeze 'em out, then sell into it.
 
Minnow said:
The old formula for the F fund went something like this:

price change in TNX(10 yr bond yield) plus the price change in TYX (30 year bond yield) multiplied by 1/4 (0.25)

or

(TNX change + TYX change) x .25 = F fund change for the day

remember that the bond market closes at 3:00pm so you would have to pull the 3pm price (I believe).

what TSPtalk used to have as a representation of the F fund was the iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond index... we all know what happened to Lehman... so, Tom, in his infinite wisdom and dedication picked the next best representation which is the iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond index... pretty close most days.

But, the F fund does have to do the Fair Value thing that the I fund has to do because of rounding discrepancies... I don't understand why and when they do that... maybe somebody can chime in here. But, for most days the old formula does work pretty well provided you catch the 3pm bond changes...
Click to expand...

That is correct Minnow.

So, for today, the F fund should lose just around 2 cents, barring any FV.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=145102&postcount=420
 
One head on CNBC noted that even if Germany bailed out Greece, the market will then pounce on Spain and then the others one by one. Maybe this is what that meeting in Australia resolved?
 
Warrenlm said:
One head on CNBC noted that even if Germany bailed out Greece, the market will then pounce on Spain and then the others one by one. Maybe this is what that meeting in Australia resolved?
Click to expand...

I don't think the meeting in Australia has resolved anything. How many secret meetings have you seen by world financial leaders of nations in your lifetime? IMO,the problem is serious and I am wondering if they have a clue how to solve it.

Karl Denninger on Greece for todays market action:
"This is, thus far, yet another rumor used to gas the market, burn the shorts and especially fry the currency traders, who have piled in short in a serious way on the Euro in the last couple of weeks. I'm sure there will be more than a couple of FX traders who play "Russian Roulette" with six loaded this evening - that move was beyond insane and if you didn't have stops and were in that market short you got destroyed this morning. Never mind the damage done to the Bunds after the cash market closed (isn't it nice to hose people when they can't do anything about it?)"

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/....-Greecefire-Prompts-Intervention-Rumors.html
 
So what's your take on the EW setups? I was watching the Chart Pattern Trader UTube this morning, there seems to be some debate on the wave stucture in relation to price.
 
JTH said:
So what's your take on the EW setups? I was watching the Chart Pattern Trader UTube this morning, there seems to be some debate on the wave stucture in relation to price.
Click to expand...

I am expecting three major waves to end the bear market A B C. The B wave would be the largest countertrend

Within this structure I am expecting a 5-3-5 for intermediate waves

Within this structure I am expecting a 5-3-5 structure for the minute waves

Now for counting interpretations: I was leaning towards SPX being in minute wave three of intermediate wave three of major wave one (the A wave), but I also see the possibility of minute wave b (of abc) of intermediate wave two A of major wave 1.

Now I see nothing to alter the first view yet. The downdraft from 1104 to 1044 (60 pointsw) had nearly a 0.618 fibonacci retracement to 1079 yesterday. And we see a roll over today. On cue so far.

Other possibilities: If the SPX cash rises and exceeds 1104 then scenario 2 above could be playing out. There is also a slight possibility that the retracement from 1150 to 1044 was an intermediate X wave and now the market takes off to the upside as a 5-3-5. To go that route however, is to deny the usual completion of major bear markets.
 
A sell signal has been given on F today. The TNX and TYX have broken out of major trendlines, so there will be a downward pressure on prices going forward.

The market has not had more than 2 days in a row of upside since January 11. This is bearish.

I am still watching the Euro/USD currency cross. We have a confirmed breakdown below an important support this AM. I have not even looked at the news, but my guess is that funding options for Greece are probably not going so well.

The USD as tracked by UUP is up again. This should put pressure on the market.

SPX cannot stay above 1071, the momentum low for downwave one on a daily closing basis. It has been below this level for 5 trading days now, and is still acting as a wall.

My current view is that the SPX market falls to between 960-980, for the end of major wave one, and then an upside rally brings it back to the 1085-1100 area, in the March -May time period. Time projections show the turning point in the first to second week of March.
 
Nothing like being up to your neck in warm manure on a cold winter's day. :D:D;)



I think it's great I can have thoughts like that and really feel good about it. :laugh: That's one PLUS about this site --- cause without it I'd never have had a thought like that.


After you go IN -- you should tell your friends that Uptrend and really say it with enthusium.

Well later dude


 
You can put on your bull glasses or bear glasses. I see bear flags on SPX, ES futures etc, and negative divergences. I see low volume on the way up and heavy volume on the way down. I see the Euro/USD pair below support with room to fall. I see the dollar pulling back toward support, but with plenty of room to roll higher. I see bonds yields ready to rise. Based on the time principal, I see predictions of a turning point sometime in the second week of March. I maintain SPX 960-980 as the first major wave target. I have no idea what will be the crack in the armour.
 
Uptrend said:
You can put on your bull glasses or bear glasses.
Click to expand...

Morning my dear friend :)

Nope -- not me -- I go by 'smell' instead of 'sight'.


The sweet aroma of Bull manure is my guide and strength -- I follow my nose and simply swim in the 'pool of wealth and success'.

GL -- and even though I do my own course -- I enjoy your stuff. ;)
 
Steadygain said:
Morning my dear friend :)

Nope -- not me -- I go by 'smell' instead of 'sight'.


The sweet aroma of Bull manure is my guide and strength -- I follow my nose and simply swim in the 'pool of wealth and success'.

GL -- and even though I do my own course -- I enjoy your stuff. ;)
Click to expand...

That sweet aroma of Bull manure is called greed. Don't let it blind you. Uptrend made some great points.
 
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