Uptrend's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Thanks cool. I read Traders talk sometimes (the fearless forcasters) and there are some good posts. But a lot of so so posts and a little flavor of bashing here and there. Still way better than the Yahoo message board!

Mark chased away some of the permabulls some months ago who were always stirring things up. He doesn't tolerate bashing at all anymore. Board's a lot quieter, but it just means less BS to wade through.

 

[Uptrend]

Some positive divergences forming, but still super weak. SPX in a bullish falling wedge, but based on the geometry has a bit more room to meander before nearing the apex. Market moved above the lower channel line and flirting with the 1085 area that is now resistance. Any sustained upside move needs to be solidly above 1085, otherwise it should be viewed as suspect for more downside action in the near term.

 

[Diesel]

Some positive divergences forming, but still super weak. SPX in a bullish falling wedge, but based on the geometry has a bit more room to meander before nearing the apex. Market moved above the lower channel line and flirting with the 1085 area that is now resistance. Any sustained upside move needs to be solidly above 1085, otherwise it should be viewed as suspect for more downside action in the near term.

Thanks Uptrend. I always enjoy your analysis and opinion

 

[Uptrend]

Bushwhacker has issued a buy signal today. Have no idea how long it will last. A case can be made for the 20 or 50 ema, and other resistance anywhere from 1107 to 1130. Since a bullish falling wedge was observed on the SPX and RUT (Russell 2000) a measurement is made to the height of the pattern. For SPX that would be 1150 or in other words a double top. Double M tops tend to be a little higher on the right side, so it could overshoot. But the market might meet real resistance and fall apart in the low 1100's. Upside volume is not convincing; however momentum is with the bulls at the moment.

The I fund may be ok very short term to play as the dollar falls and tests the 200ema on the charts.

My strategy is to go into equities and roll to the F fund when things go bad. I am starting to change my views on bonds. I have studied the weekly and monthly charts and believe bonds will be a great play this year as the dollar rallies.

 

[love-to-bike]

I'm with you on your bond analysis, I'm thinking I'll be in the F fund more this year than in the past....

 

[Uptrend]

Thre trade simply blew-up. We have the cross of death on the SPX where the 20ema has moved below the 50 ema this AM. The trade target of 1121-1130 was never realized. The bonds have now moved to buy. This is one bummer trade, but that is the risk/reward system. Fooled TA.

 

[Nordic]

The market erased 5% in the last 3 trading days just the same as it added 5% in 3 trading days off the March 09 lows. How ironic! Ok, so I have studied the charts and Elliot wave theory, and here is my take. The market has completed countertrend wave B of the Bear market ABC (all bear markets have a ABC structure). The final C wave should take most of 2010 to unfold and most likely will retest the SPX 666 lows or perhaps even take them out. Of course, there is a slim possibility that this won't happen at all, but that would be to deny the bear market. As a contrarian, even as the countertrend wave B was blasting up, pundits were saying the bear market is over. How absurd!

Now more about the C wave. It heads down and based on past bear markets will probably be laid out in 5 major waves, each with a 5 intermediate wave structure. Each wave goes like this: Wave 1 down, wave 2 up wave 3 down, wave 4 up and wave 5 down. A few more tips; waves have symmetry so if wave one extends, waves 3 and 5 will be about equal, or if wave 3 extends waves 1 and 5 will be about equal, See the pattern? Ok so lets look at the SPX hour chart to see what is going on.
View attachment 8062
We are in major wave 1 of 5. There are 5 intermediate waves within each major wave. Each intermediate wave has five minute waves. We see minute wave one went from 1150 -1129 (1), 1129 -1142 (2), 1142-underway and speculation now using support and resistance and indicators and EWT will probably bottom at 1085 (3), 1085 -1113 to backtest the 50 ema from the underside (4) and 1113-1077 (5) As this intermediate wave is building we see that wave 3 is extending; 1142-1085 is 57 points and that equals wave one and wave 5 combined (1150-1129 = 21, and 1113-1077 = 36, 21 points + 36 points = 57 points. (That is how I do the extension, which may or may not play out exactly but should be somewhat similar, based on the rules of waves.) I am thinking wave one will end right on the bottom channel (green line) one the SPX daily chart below:
View attachment 8063
Now for the year and TSP IFT considerations:
1) For each intermediate downwave, the minute waves 2 and 4 are upwaves, but they are very weak and short. Look at wave 2 of the current structure, it was only 13 points and a 1.1% gain. With our IFT delay requirement, and depending where the wave tops intra-day, you have a high chance of getting burned. Lot of risk for small reward.
2) Intermediate waves 2 and 4 of each major wave might be 5-10% rallies. We want to identify where they start and buy and hold through them.
2) Major waves 2 and 4 are upwaves. These are the big rallies to catch, as each one could be a 10% or greater gain. These are the bread and butter rallies of the year -buy and hold while they are underway. You don't want to be out of IFT bullets when these waves take off. It will be very important to identify the bottom of wave one, where this snapback rally will occur.

Uptrend - Are you still projecting the bottom of major Wave 1 to be near the 1030-1035 area?

 

[Uptrend]

Uptrend - Are you still projecting the bottom of major Wave 1 to be near the 1030-1035 area?

No Wave 3 of 5 (the current wave) within the first major wave should end between 1018-1030. Major wave one should end dwon around 960-980

 

[Uptrend]

So much for the doulbe top theory. Or even to make it back to the resistance near 1115. Busted my trade and slammed me in the face. The market was so weak it rolled early. And it interesting thing was that it rolled between the 38.2 and 50% fibonacci levels which is odd. It usually turns pretty much right on them. Bad omen. Here is the SPX chart that is slip sliding away along the lower line. 1030-1018 is the current wave target. Wave 3's in a downtrend usually are the strongest.

View attachment 8204

 

[Bullitt]

As exciting of an ending the robots gave us in the afternoon, we're still in the downtrend channel. I'm wondering how much was just short covering before the weekend. Who knows what trick will be pulled out Sunday night after this stagnant job report.

 

[Birchtree]

I suspect that down trend channel is nothing more than a potential head fake - Monday will be the tell as we break out. The gunslinger hedge fund managers will move in tandem to buy their way back in. I believe it will be glorious in volatility as the bull rages forward.

 

[Uptrend]

I suspect that down trend channel is nothing more than a potential head fake - Monday will be the tell as we break out. The gunslinger hedge fund managers will move in tandem to buy their way back in. I believe it will be glorious in volatility as the bull rages forward.

I am still sticking with the bear market theory, and even though we may technically not be in a bear market, it has been manipulated, so it is hard to tell at times. Based on a number of TA factors, including time from the last high in January, IMO the next market low is probably coming in early March. So this fits the big picture ABC Bear market. The C should be unfolding in 5 major waves. Intermediate wave 3 of major wave 1 is unfolding now, the way I am counting. Major wave 2 should be coming near the end of the month, and that is the big relief rally. To deny the ABC layout denies the structure of all bear markets, so I think it is real. Further, the USD is going through the roof, and this will put pressure on commodities that are dolllar denominated. (I am currently short metals). Looks to me like a series of lower lows and lower highs are unfolding now. If you see overlapping waves in an upward direction, then you know the downtrend is over. The last hour Friday was covering for the weekend. That is all. Big investors lost enough dough last year; they are wary, but you can be sure they will jump on the short side as soon as a TA point is hit. And they have the info channels.

 

[Uptrend]

Living free, that is a new one

http://www.streettalkadvisors.com/XFactor/020610-All-About-Credit.pdf

 

[grandma]

Living free, that is a new one
http://www.streettalkadvisors.com/XFactor/020610-All-About-Credit.pdf

That is one `laying-it-out-straight' link, Uptrend. Thank you.
When he is talking `long on commodities' is that in general?
The weather isn't assisting with our orchards & truck farms, a great deal of our manufacturing is in other countries, so how does that help us?
Especially considering that the citizens of those countries are here -

I don't remember who posted the YouTube, yesterday, of the final scenes of Trading Places - but I loved it!

 

[Uptrend]

Its strange that the F fund was down 0.16% today, while AGG was up 0.19% and TLT up 0.13%.

 

[Gumby]

Its strange that the F fund was down 0.16% today, while AGG was up 0.19% and TLT up 0.13%.

The FRTIB must not use the closing price for AGG. Are they using somekind of an average for the day? Looks like F funders got their pocket picked.

 

[nasa1974]

The FRTIB must not use the closing price for AGG. Are they using somekind of an average for the day? Looks like F funders got their pocket picked.

A few accounts are talking about the F fund discrepancy.

If I am wrong I know I will be corrected. I thought I read somewhere on this MB, had to be in 2008. That the F fund on occasion would also be corrected similar to the I fund.

 

[nnuut]

That kind of thing used to happen all of the time. The AGG would be wrong more than right on occasion, so one of the members developed a method to figure the correct numbers using the 10 and 30 year Bond yields. I think it was 350ZCommTech? Usually the AGG would be correct the next day but not at close on a daily basis. PM him and I think he can give you the formula.

 

[Minnow]

The old formula for the F fund went something like this:

price change in TNX(10 yr bond yield) plus the price change in TYX (30 year bond yield) multiplied by 1/4 (0.25)

or

(TNX change + TYX change) x .25 = F fund change for the day

remember that the bond market closes at 3:00pm so you would have to pull the 3pm price (I believe).

what TSPtalk used to have as a representation of the F fund was the iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond index... we all know what happened to Lehman... so, Tom, in his infinite wisdom and dedication picked the next best representation which is the iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond index... pretty close most days.

But, the F fund does have to do the Fair Value thing that the I fund has to do because of rounding discrepancies... I don't understand why and when they do that... maybe somebody can chime in here. But, for most days the old formula does work pretty well provided you catch the 3pm bond changes...

 

[nnuut]

The old formula for the F fund went something like this:

price change in TNX(10 yr bond yield) plus the price change in TYX (30 year bond yield) multiplied by 1/4 (0.25)

or

(TNX change + TYX change) x .25 = F fund change for the day

remember that the bond market closes at 3:00pm so you would have to pull the 3pm price (I believe).

what TSPtalk used to have as a representation of the F fund was the iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond index... we all know what happened to Lehman... so, Tom, in his infinite wisdom and dedication picked the next best representation which is the iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond index... pretty close most days.

But, the F fund does have to do the Fair Value thing that the I fund has to do because of rounding discrepancies... I don't understand why and when they do that... maybe somebody can chime in here. But, for most days the old formula does work pretty well provided you catch the 3pm bond changes...

Yeah, that's the one figured at Market close and compared to the AGG that closes at 15:00. Yes there is a Fair Value thing. Good work Minnow!