Intrepid_Timer
Well-known member
Are you pulling these lines out of a hat? I see now rhyme or reason.............
-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
Uptrend's Account Talk
- Thread starter Uptrend
- Start date
Aule Mar
New member
On the 2nd of Jul I moved 50% from G to S at 16.0291, and and just waiting for the most opportunistic time to jump back to G. Do you realy think the markets will continue to climb. I don't, I'm making the move back to G either today or tomorow, most likely tomorow, hoping for a full $1 share gain.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Are you pulling these lines out of a hat? I see now rhyme or reason.............
Lets look at a larger timeframe:
View attachment 9750
The same lines are on the chart as befoire. I just added the green line coming up from the March 09 666 low. Now to the rules. The channels are drawn using rules of momentum and symmetry. For the green channel (top 2 lines),the top has many good touches. The bottom is exactly parallel and has enough key touches including wave 2 momentum low of the previous advance and wave 1 momentum low of the current decline. For the magenta channel, I used wave 4 momentum low of the previous advance to draw the bottom of the channel, and the top is exactly parallel using the top of wave 3 of the previous advance. This channel is anchored by those 2 momentum shifts and is awaiting confirmation.
BTW, you will notice that the market is contained in a triangle sitting on top the magenta channel. Breakout to the upside is a possibility. However, the breakout usually happens about 80-90% along these wedges and should have happened by now. What is more ominous is that the larger whtie wedge, is pointing down to the bottom of the magenta channel at roughly SPX 875 where the lines converge. This is also a key support area (bottom horizontal red line). A breakout at 80-90% of this white wedge, and looking at significant support comes in at the top horizontal red line at SPX 944. This is where I think the market wants to go.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Negative divergences are appearing on SPX, Russell, EFA etc. US dollar is up with a positive divergence. AGG (bonds) up 21 ticks with a strong positve divergence and TNX is down (good for bond prices). VIX is rising with a strong positive divergence.
Summary The current advance is toast.
Summary The current advance is toast.
Uptrend
Well-known member
SPX (on stockcharts) is trying to form a black candle today. Last time that happened the market went into a 10 day slide. A black candle is where the market opens higher (ie gaps up) and then retraces down, filling the candle, but it stays equal or above the prior days close. This breakaway can signal exhaustion, the retracement signals wanning momentum, and a 3 day candle pattern can be an evening star reversal (bearish). We will know if that occurs by tomorrows close.
Uptrend
Well-known member
We did have a breakout to the upside yesterday on SPX of the bullish falling wedge I showed the other day.
My trend indicators are not in agreement. Some say buy and some say sell.
The SPX 50 ema is still below the 200 ema (bearish).
No sign that bonds are losing an uptrend. On $TNX 50 ema is below 200 ema (good for prices) and black candle appearing this AM (usually means more downside and again good for prices).
The downtrend in the US dollar is still there but weakening.
Hmmm
My trend indicators are not in agreement. Some say buy and some say sell.
The SPX 50 ema is still below the 200 ema (bearish).
No sign that bonds are losing an uptrend. On $TNX 50 ema is below 200 ema (good for prices) and black candle appearing this AM (usually means more downside and again good for prices).
The downtrend in the US dollar is still there but weakening.
Hmmm
Uptrend
Well-known member
Even though trendline has a confirmed buy, I am not entering just yet. Here is why.
1) Leading economic indicators (LEI) are in contraction and offer warning signs.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/216275-leading-economic-indicators-offer-more-warning-signs
2) I see a morning star or morning doji star this AM on the US Dollar UUP chart. The MACD is near the 0 line. This is a bullish set-up and potentially bad for the markets. The 2 past times on the UUP chart when this occured, the US Dollar shot up for 10 days and 26 days.
What I am wondering; is this merely a bear market rally or something more? I would like to see the LEI expanding as the market advances; not the other way around. This is a high risk environment. We could see another dip going into September-October or sooner.
For market entry, there should be at least one test of the 200 ema that the SPX just broke through coming in at 1098. I want to see if the market can stay above the 200 for a few days. That is critical. It is also critical to see if the 50 ema can recross the 200 ema. The 500 ema is currently at 1092 - 6 points away.
For upside potential SPX 1187 is the minimum target and 1291 the maximum target, base on TA. 1136 will offer resistance and must be cleared first.
So do we have the big run-up now with poor LEI, or is this just a fake out?
1) Leading economic indicators (LEI) are in contraction and offer warning signs.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/216275-leading-economic-indicators-offer-more-warning-signs
2) I see a morning star or morning doji star this AM on the US Dollar UUP chart. The MACD is near the 0 line. This is a bullish set-up and potentially bad for the markets. The 2 past times on the UUP chart when this occured, the US Dollar shot up for 10 days and 26 days.
What I am wondering; is this merely a bear market rally or something more? I would like to see the LEI expanding as the market advances; not the other way around. This is a high risk environment. We could see another dip going into September-October or sooner.
For market entry, there should be at least one test of the 200 ema that the SPX just broke through coming in at 1098. I want to see if the market can stay above the 200 for a few days. That is critical. It is also critical to see if the 50 ema can recross the 200 ema. The 500 ema is currently at 1092 - 6 points away.
For upside potential SPX 1187 is the minimum target and 1291 the maximum target, base on TA. 1136 will offer resistance and must be cleared first.
So do we have the big run-up now with poor LEI, or is this just a fake out?
Uptrend
Well-known member
SPX cash market has hit a resistance line; now a short term rollover to tag the 20 ema at 1093 or turn around at the 200 ema at 1098. These are the targets and entry points for those not in the market.
US dollar as tracked by UUP shows a possible bullish harami. I expect the dollar to move up soon, as it appears to be bottoming. Early warning for the I fund.
Gold and silver have been in declines since late June.
Ten year treasury note TNX sitting at boundary of downtrending channel with a possible reversal candle from recent surge.
US dollar as tracked by UUP shows a possible bullish harami. I expect the dollar to move up soon, as it appears to be bottoming. Early warning for the I fund.
Gold and silver have been in declines since late June.
Ten year treasury note TNX sitting at boundary of downtrending channel with a possible reversal candle from recent surge.
crws
Active member
Yep, I think the I Fund run is getting close to cresting, and time to shift more to S Fund.
Uptrend
Well-known member
The SPX cannot hang on to the 1107 pivot today. This is key support. The market is in danger of breaking down and IMO is exhibiting bear market bahavior. Trend systems just don't work in this environment.
Large CAP good earnings mixed with bad economic news. Well let's be real; most of the large CAP componies get half their revenue from someplace else in the world - that won't sustain our economy or help our unemployment.
The type of trading system that seems to work in this sideways market action is oversold momentum hit and run type trades. Wait for an opportunity, get in for 3-6 days, and then get out.
Large CAP good earnings mixed with bad economic news. Well let's be real; most of the large CAP componies get half their revenue from someplace else in the world - that won't sustain our economy or help our unemployment.
The type of trading system that seems to work in this sideways market action is oversold momentum hit and run type trades. Wait for an opportunity, get in for 3-6 days, and then get out.
coolhand
Well-known member
If I had the flexibility, I would have lightened up earlier this week to buy back in at lower prices, but we know that score. I can see the weakness coming, but I can't gauge it, and I certainly can't react to it in most cases given our limitations. Forced buy and hold is what we're left with.
Even if the SS flips to a sell, I'm staying put, because they turn these markets in a flash and usually after most systems have rolled over. I'm pretty sure we're moving higher regardless.
Bastages.
Even if the SS flips to a sell, I'm staying put, because they turn these markets in a flash and usually after most systems have rolled over. I'm pretty sure we're moving higher regardless.
Bastages.
Aule Mar
New member
I actualy held off till the last Monday, and moced 30 % to G, made $1.70 per share. I do feel HIT and run is the only way to go in this market.
Aule
Frixxxx
Moderator
Just don't be the one that gets HIT!
Warrenlm
Well-known member
I was thinking of offering my services in that regard. Whenever I am moving some % from G to equities I can advise and that will be a notice for others to go all G.Just don't be the one that gets HIT!
Uptrend
Well-known member
The US dollar has probably bottomed with a southern doji candlestick on the daily chart yesterday. Bonds higher prices as tracked by TNX are in a downtrending channel that is intact. Weekly SPX is losing momentum as tracked by the MACD histogram showing lower bars and a possible northern star doji red candle has appeared. A confirmation is a close below SPX 1055 next week.
Poor economic news such as 2nd Q GDP missing expectations is starting to emerge. It is a slow fade.
My TSP trendline system has went to F, G.
Poor economic news such as 2nd Q GDP missing expectations is starting to emerge. It is a slow fade.
My TSP trendline system has went to F, G.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
S
F
C
G
I
Hey man, seriously I'm not trying to throw salt in your wounds or anything like that. In fact, in all honesty, today was the first time I even looked at the AT in the past few months.
The days of 'unlimited trades' were a whole different world and in those days you wouldn't even need 'a system'. Trying to 'beat' the Markets with one chance in per month - would be overwhelming impossible because no one could possibly 'guess' the right moment.
Had any of us simply stayed in any of the first 4 Funds noted - we'd be in POSITIVE territory.
I think if you did some research you'd find the Companies with $2 Trillion ready to pour in the MARKETS have been waiting for 'this Moment'. If 'we' would WIN - then G or F is the last place you'd want to be.
well that my 2 cents - GL man
F
C
G
I
Hey man, seriously I'm not trying to throw salt in your wounds or anything like that. In fact, in all honesty, today was the first time I even looked at the AT in the past few months.
The days of 'unlimited trades' were a whole different world and in those days you wouldn't even need 'a system'. Trying to 'beat' the Markets with one chance in per month - would be overwhelming impossible because no one could possibly 'guess' the right moment.
Had any of us simply stayed in any of the first 4 Funds noted - we'd be in POSITIVE territory.
I think if you did some research you'd find the Companies with $2 Trillion ready to pour in the MARKETS have been waiting for 'this Moment'. If 'we' would WIN - then G or F is the last place you'd want to be.
well that my 2 cents - GL man
Uptrend
Well-known member
Back to posting. Was doing an intensive project for the last 2 weeks.
On August 5th Obama gave a speech were he said "there will be no double dip recession" or something like that. On August 6th the BLS put out the jobs report were we find there was a loss of 131,000 jobs from the previous month. The Fed FOMC today leaves rates unchanged but is cautious and will start a longer term bonds buy back program. Normally this would be inflationary, but they don't expect any - just the opposite deflation. Reading between the lines - the economy is not doing real well and the Feds are worried. Banks have money but won't lend. New jobs are at too low a rate. The effective unemploymnet rate is really about 17% when you consider those whose unemploymnet benefits have expired and those that have given up looking. The employed are getting some wage hikes while the unemployed are getting nothing to rice and beans subsistance. The haves and the have nots are emerging, not even considering the rich haves that have been around for some time.
On the TA side, SPX appears to me to be building a right shoulder, but it does not match the left shoulder yet. I am thinking we may have weakness to carry the market down and retest the channel line coming off the March 666 lows, currently at about 1058. Then up to 1150 or slightly higher near a pivot at 1187 and that would be about it to complete a right shoulder. Of course anything is possible and the market could go up there right now, or do this retest to the 1090 -1050's area, or fail completely and come crashing down. However, the head and shoulders topping pattern is compelling to me. The neckline is near 1010 and the pattern downside measures to near SPX 800. I am watching.
For the shorter term bonds and the the F fund is in a confirmed strong uptrend. The Feds bonds buying program should help the F fund as long as inflation stays away. The main equities market looks tired. Small caps are weaker than large caps and are on a confirmed sell. The US dollar appears to be starting an uptrend, but it is not confirmed by my indicators yet.
Also because the relationship between bonds, USD and equities has not always been normal lately, and because of further economy weakness, we are IMO in a high risk trading environment. Even tried and true trend indicators need to be cross-checked with other methods because they can give false signals.
On August 5th Obama gave a speech were he said "there will be no double dip recession" or something like that. On August 6th the BLS put out the jobs report were we find there was a loss of 131,000 jobs from the previous month. The Fed FOMC today leaves rates unchanged but is cautious and will start a longer term bonds buy back program. Normally this would be inflationary, but they don't expect any - just the opposite deflation. Reading between the lines - the economy is not doing real well and the Feds are worried. Banks have money but won't lend. New jobs are at too low a rate. The effective unemploymnet rate is really about 17% when you consider those whose unemploymnet benefits have expired and those that have given up looking. The employed are getting some wage hikes while the unemployed are getting nothing to rice and beans subsistance. The haves and the have nots are emerging, not even considering the rich haves that have been around for some time.
On the TA side, SPX appears to me to be building a right shoulder, but it does not match the left shoulder yet. I am thinking we may have weakness to carry the market down and retest the channel line coming off the March 666 lows, currently at about 1058. Then up to 1150 or slightly higher near a pivot at 1187 and that would be about it to complete a right shoulder. Of course anything is possible and the market could go up there right now, or do this retest to the 1090 -1050's area, or fail completely and come crashing down. However, the head and shoulders topping pattern is compelling to me. The neckline is near 1010 and the pattern downside measures to near SPX 800. I am watching.
For the shorter term bonds and the the F fund is in a confirmed strong uptrend. The Feds bonds buying program should help the F fund as long as inflation stays away. The main equities market looks tired. Small caps are weaker than large caps and are on a confirmed sell. The US dollar appears to be starting an uptrend, but it is not confirmed by my indicators yet.
Also because the relationship between bonds, USD and equities has not always been normal lately, and because of further economy weakness, we are IMO in a high risk trading environment. Even tried and true trend indicators need to be cross-checked with other methods because they can give false signals.
Similar threads
- Article
