Uptrend's Account Talk

[Uptrend]

Grab and Go was a false sell on 8/30. The indicators were tricked and not in agreement. At any rate, I don't expect this rally to go anywhere - unless the SPX climbs above the 200 ema at 1085 where it is now, and then above the 1090-1095 pivot area. Malyla, triple bottoms in a larger context (more time to set up) are bullish, but I thought they may be bearish in a micro context (a few days to set-up rather than a few months, but I was wrong). The SPX has had four hits of the 1040 with one violation to 1010 since June. IMO, the four hit secenario w/breach is bearish. This time the surge off the 1040 area came with such fury wo much news, that it has the appearence of a PPT play. As you know the 1040 area intersects with the main support line coming up from the March 09 666 lows. As a general principle, the longer the line, the more power it has as support or resistance. It is support for now, but keeps moving upwards. How long can this go on before a breach? On 8/30, my primary indicators said sell, while others said hold, so the final verdict for Grab and Go tipped to a sell.

The US dollar as UUP is trying to hold on to the 200 ema, as it is slightly below, but trying to regain. For a dollar surge and effect on the markets, it must get above. Bonds are not revealing a direction yet, so the F fund is still in hold mode if you are already in, but I would not buy right now. In TA terms, a bonds correction is not happening yet.

 

[malyla]

Malyla, triple bottoms in a larger context (more time to set up) are bullish, but I thought they may be bearish in a micro context (a few days to set-up rather than a few months, but I was wrong). The SPX has had four hits of the 1040 with one violation to 1010 since June. IMO, the four hit secenario w/breach is bearish. This time the surge off the 1040 area came with such fury wo much news, that it has the appearence of a PPT play. As you know the 1040 area intersects with the main support line coming up from the March 09 666 lows. As a general principle, the longer the line, the more power it has as support or resistance. It is support for now, but keeps moving upwards. How long can this go on before a breach?

Thanks Uptread. Always good analysis.

I would dearly love to think that the market is not manipulated against everyone but the Big Trading Firms, but I don't think that is the case. I love technical analysis, but everyone knows what that technical analysis predicts and therefore it is very easy to manipulate the technical traders out of their positions if you have the power behind you (think of the large stack power position in poker). I just don't trust that the market is a true indication of the economic atmosphere we are all living in.

Which is a shame as my retirement is now tied to the market performance, which means I'm a market slave (Big Trading Firms slave). I have to hope that I can catch some of those manipulations when they are to the upside so that I get the promised 10%/yr gain which will allow me to retire comfortably when I would like to. Until the economy truly recovers, with jobs and consumer buying, I have no faith in this market. In hind sight, it was a big mistake to have my safety net tied to such a manipulated instrument.

But, this is just another opportunity to learn about human nature and the power of greed and how to protect yourself from those who have stacked the deck in their favor both politically and through technology. I just hope that the lesson will give me enough knowledge to make my retirement goals. This will honestly only happen when the economy grows again since I'm not a trader and I do not have inside knowledge into those big wall street firms.

 

[Birchtree]

Stick with the markets - only blaze your own trail. I'm in a situation where I can make more money in a day than I could make working all year. The markets will provide ample opportunity for gains if you can maintain courage - be prepared to take the random hits but stay with your discipline. This current bull will last a very long time.

 

[crws]

Stick with the markets - only blaze your own trail. I'm in a situation where I can make more money in a day than I could make working all year. The markets will provide ample opportunity for gains if you can maintain courage - be prepared to take the random hits but stay with your discipline. This current bull will last a very long time.

I'd like to believe it is that idealistic, but more than ever I am thinking the reality is that the algos and their programmers are extremely adept at adapting to each others idiosyncrasies, in effect throwing day traders and their trading fees off left and right as they battle for lead dog of the day.
It's nothing more than the old kid taunt: "Last one in's (or out as the case may be) a rotten egg"
To that end Birch may be right, that the long term, 5-10 years out, maybe the only real salvation of being an active trader in today's market, unless you have the capital to double down after a loss.

 

[Birchtree]

I had the pleasure of doubling down big time at the October-November lows of 2008. Sure glad I took the chance - held my nose and bought everything in sight. Made 432 individual purchases during that chaos - and ended up in a good position going forward.

 

[Uptrend]

The 3 day wonder rally. I wonder where it is going. Here is the SPX cash chart:

View attachment 9962

Well, it has now hit the upper downtrend line which has some power. And at the same time the market is now trying to recover above the 100 and 200 emas seen in green and magenta. But, we also have a gap window from 1090 to 1093 in the 1090 pivot area from the spike this AM. The last time the downtrend line and neckline of an inverse head and shoulders that some say will play out was hit on 8/09 at 1131, but there was a failure. Will there be a failure this time? Based on the economy, I would like to think so, but I don't know. Perhpas the inverse head and shoulders will play out from the sloping neckline. The pattern measures to around 1252.

At any rate patience is required here. I note as I write this folks are selling into it, and a candle whisker is forming. My trend system has not confirmed the trend yet. Will the 3 day wonder grow legs or crash?

 

[Uptrend]

TSPTrend system has now called for a hold of C, S, I and sell F Not sure I would 100% agree, but that is what the system says. Might want to wait for a little pullback to the SPX gap near 1090 -1093. 1090 is key support.

 

[Uptrend]

Here is a bear report - the bigger picture.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...ouble-dip-recession-says-Nouriel-Roubini.html

 

[nasa1974]

Here is a bear report - the bigger picture.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...ouble-dip-recession-says-Nouriel-Roubini.html

OK! So does he have any fixes for the problem. We have a lot of people calling doom and gloom but very few trying to help.

 

[hessian]

Here is a bear report - the bigger picture.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...ouble-dip-recession-says-Nouriel-Roubini.html

I wish these "luminaries" (whom I believe accurate), could bring thier thinking home to the everyday person.
For example:
Should we be buying houses now? or setting up tents?

Should folks take the 20K job - if one could land one?
Should we pay our mortages or walk away?
Should we move to Sumoa, Thailand or Canada?:nuts:
Point is what is the everyday, typical American who pays taxes (and can just "pick-up" and bail) - to do??
Its always this nebulous, quantatative-easing-speak - but what's it mean in rubber-meets-the-road, plain english, for plain Americans? :blink:

 

[Birchtree]

Plain Americans can always make an eggplant casserole - and foregive themselves for voting progressive.

 

[KevinD]

Plain Americans can always make an eggplant casserole - and foregive themselves for voting progressive.

That does seem the only option but have the Repubs learned their lesson?

 

[Uptrend]

Today markets are moving higher. We had a consolidation on SPX but never did completely fill the gap down near 1090. Russell did fill the gap. We have a bullish rellignment of the 10, 20, and 50 emas. Market is just pushing above the 200 ema. The upper downtrend channel line now at 1104 is the next hurdle, and then to 1131. If 1104 is cleared and closed above, we have a breakout of the downtrend channel. On the downside 1091.15 is gap support and 1090.01 is gap fill, but key pivot support, then 1087.

An uptrend is developing, especially if the market can stay above the 200 ema. Is this a fear led rally? A tax cut anticipation rally? Lets see what happens.

 

[Frixxxx]

If 1104 is cleared and closed above, we have a breakout of the downtrend channel. On the downside 1091.15 is gap support and 1090.01 is gap fill, but key pivot support, then 1087.

An uptrend is developing, especially if the market can stay above the 200 ema. Is this a fear led rally? A tax cut anticipation rally? Lets see what happens.

Big IF for today, but I think if we can see Japan with a .5 GDP report this week, then that would help matters.

Commodities still a good bet right now.

I may have to put a few shorts on the YEN this week

I'm not sure it's fear as much as timing....A lot of money starts to come back into the markets this time of year.

 

[Uptrend]

If the market can close above the upper trendline today on SPX as we see here, we have a breakout. That is bullish.

View attachment 9991

The NY advance/decline issues is shown in the next chart for the last 5 months.

View attachment 9992

When you compare Arpil to May we see greater increased width between advancing and declining issues, which I interpret as increased volatility. Then since May we see the overall width declining, forming a wedge with the lows lessening faster than the highs, which I interpret as a decrease in volatility. I have added the 13 day ema (going through the middle) to smooth out the data, so you can see periods of advances or declines. From July on, the advancing issues have more or less hit a flat ceiling of 2200-2300, while the decling issues are lessening from about 2200 to 1300. I interpret this as a buildup phase before a breakout. The top and bottom during this period is forming and ascending triangle, which I interpret as bullish. The circled area show new highs and breakout possibilities, and the 13 day ema is currently rising sharply.

 

[Frixxxx]

If the market can close above the upper trendline today on SPX as we see here, we have a breakout. That is bullish.

Now that we have that Job's report, this could be the catalyst to go up a few weeks.....:nuts:

Nice charts Uptrend, thanks!

 

[Uptrend]

Today I note the market is slowly slogging upward in a lackluster kind of way. The trend signals are all still on a "buy", however there is a caution because the 50 ema is still below the 200 ema on the charts, so the market could reverse on a dime. That said we have OEX coming up next week, where a shot upwards would settle the bear interest with a short covering rally. Just guessing that may happen anytime Mon-Wednesday.

I am watching the bonds and they (AGG TLT) are getting down near the 50 ema and TNX pushing on 50 ema from below. If these reverse, so should the market. The Russell looks pretty weak and is having trouble getting above the 50 ema. As for the US dollar, it is trapped (on UUP) between the 50 and 200 emas. I have no idea which way it will resolve. The ADX is bottoming, so a big move is coming fairly soon.

I understand the employment report yesterday was based on estimates for many states because of labor day and no time to compile. That is bad, as we don't have real numbers. The 50 ema support areas on bonds tell me a reversal could happen within a couple sessions if the market staggers. Also, I dont like the fact that gold (GLD) is again moving upwards. The TSP sentiment survery is on sell, but just barely. And the SPX downtrend channel is still in range. That is, a market can overshoot a little to the upside and then quickly reverse faking out everybody. Further, there are negative divergences in all timeframes. If the 50 ema was above the 200 ema, I would trust the trend system. But, it's not, and as I have said before, that is why I have a Grab and Go system (that also got partially faked out on this go around from 1040). China is releasing some big news, but on Saturday (this is odd), and possible inflation data.

Anyway, I am taking a defensive position to F.

 

[Uptrend]

First a little update on my 2 trading systems. I returned the TSPTrendline system to a "sell" to F or G today to be in agreement the intended trading strategy. I apologize, but the TSPTrendline system is intended to buy and hold in the active funds (C S I) when the 50 ema is above the 200 ema. Since that is not the case, I should not have activated it at the beginning of the month. As far as signals, a uptrend is still in force, but likly can reverse quickly and come crashing down. If the 50 ema was above the 200 ema on the primary indices, I would have no reservations on letting it run.

Now I switched to the F fund today. What concerned me was the weakness in tech. Here are the charts:

View attachment 9994

View attachment 9995

View attachment 9996

The Russell is forming a pennant with 2 black candles. This is not a bull flag, but more of a bearish set-up. The semiconductor (SOX) is trading down while the SPX market is trading up (I put the SPX price as a line chart behind the SOX price candlesticks for comparison). In past instances this is not the case, but rather trending in unison with the SPX price chart. The technology TNA 3x bull shares have hit upper resistance and have 2 black candles. These all look to me like bearish set-ups. My guess is that it will all come crashing down soon.

 

[Bullitt]

SOX has some resistance at 330 as well. I'm in QID and G.

 

[Birchtree]

You'll both need a crash to make any tracker progress. Bullitt #348, Uptrend #425.