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Uptrend's Account Talk
- Thread starter Uptrend
- Start date
Birch, are you saying that we should be on the lily pad next week?
Birchtree
Well-known member
I'll have 20% in G starting Monday to hedge myself incase the hammer falls - otherwise I'm in to take the body punches which will be temporary. I'm trying to plan a purchase of the S fund at much lower prices. It may not work but it's only a 20% sacrifice while I'm looking for an opportunity to move up the tracker.
I've endured body punches for awhile, that's not what worries me. It's the head shot I'm worried about.
Uptrend
Well-known member
SPX 1287 is key resistance. So far the market has not topped in the recent run on a closing basis. If the market gets past it is clear sailing to SPX 1222. Downside support remains near 1168, then 1146. I am expecting a run to 1222 or beyond, but a correction first. My signals for equities say stay out at this time. Of course each day changes the moving picture.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Posting on the run with Droid X. Anyway SPX 1187 still key resistance because no daily close above. Financials BKX looks like a breakdown in the works. US dollar up. Think this little fall is temorary until QE 2 kicks in by Nov. Fed trash dollar equal equities probaby go higher. SPX 1313 on table by end of year
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Who knows ???
I think it's the 'same ole - same ole' and it's going to go on a lot longer than we may have thought a year ago or so.
In all likelihood - what we experienced was the equivalent of another 'Great Depression' - if not worse - especially since it was Global. The thing that makes it 'impossible' to really guage is mainly due to the extent we kept hearing from The Man, Treasury Sec, Ben and all about how they saved our ass - by bailing out Bear Stearns.
So then -- we think we'll that cool we'll get over it --- then it's Fannie, Fredie, and every other BANK, Auto Industries, and basically every house and it's like there's no end.
I think we'll have the ups and downs and in the end we'll pull through - but I think the changes are likely 'bigger' than most think. Here I don't mean that as a 'doom sayer' -- I just think a Shift is underway ... and the USA has and is -- falling from First Place.
Uptrend
Well-known member
There was a really big volume bar today on the US dollar (UUP), and the EURO/USD cross is falling apart. On UUP a higher low is in place and the market closed above the 20 ema. The big volume bars tend to mark reversals. Note that short and long term bonds are tanking, with AGG falling below the 50 ema and TLT flirting with the 200 ema. So perhaps the realization that the FED QE2 might be millions less than anticipated has dried up the inflation fear?
So US dollar +++++ = equities ----------
I am looking for the following resistane SPX numbers: 1168, then 1146, then 1136. The market could reverse at any one of them. I don't think anyone really knows. There is a slight chance it may reverse tomorrow and go up from here or get below 1136 and keep going. However, the dollar and bond relationship and their charts support areas tells me that 30 or 40 handles down is in the probable zone, so I am calling for a reversal at 1146. Momemtum is down at this time. Trade well.
So US dollar +++++ = equities ----------
I am looking for the following resistane SPX numbers: 1168, then 1146, then 1136. The market could reverse at any one of them. I don't think anyone really knows. There is a slight chance it may reverse tomorrow and go up from here or get below 1136 and keep going. However, the dollar and bond relationship and their charts support areas tells me that 30 or 40 handles down is in the probable zone, so I am calling for a reversal at 1146. Momemtum is down at this time. Trade well.
Birchtree
Well-known member
"The market impact of $100 billion a month of quantitative easing."
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23827.html
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23827.html
felixthecat
Member
I also strongly sense a big down move coming. Looking at the futures, beginning tomorrow. I'm sitting on the Lili pad and watching with my binoculars. This would be a good time for the bears/shorts to take advantage of the momentum of the rising dollar and drop the Dow -224.
I see a two day drop in the cards. Should prove to be 2 sharp drops.
I see a two day drop in the cards. Should prove to be 2 sharp drops.
Uptrend
Well-known member
More indecision. When the markets trade in a narrow range for a number of days, a big release occurs for reasons unkown (at least I don't know why) with a lerge move one way or the other. Some say a blow off top is coming with a 2-4% up move, and some say a big dump is in the works. After reviewing the charts this weekend, I do not have a clear picture. That was a strong fall rally - is it finished? Tell you what - I just don't' like casino markets. Bullish sentiment cooled a little, so contrarian = up?
The weekly candle on the SPX is a black doji far along in an uptrend. There are not very many examples of this on the charts; it's bearish but there is at least one example of a bullish outcome in the next week in the last 3 years. So I don't know. The market on SPX is also slamming into the downward sloping 200 sma on the weekly and that is why 1188 is so much trouble. The market has failed to top this line since it fell below in July of 08, although it tagged it in May of this year in the 1220 area.
For individual stocks, if the market gets above the 200 sma, they tend to blast off, so will this happen this week? Could be a real money maker, or a real money loser if someting drives the market lower.
The weekly candle on the SPX is a black doji far along in an uptrend. There are not very many examples of this on the charts; it's bearish but there is at least one example of a bullish outcome in the next week in the last 3 years. So I don't know. The market on SPX is also slamming into the downward sloping 200 sma on the weekly and that is why 1188 is so much trouble. The market has failed to top this line since it fell below in July of 08, although it tagged it in May of this year in the 1220 area.
For individual stocks, if the market gets above the 200 sma, they tend to blast off, so will this happen this week? Could be a real money maker, or a real money loser if someting drives the market lower.
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