-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
Uptrend's Account Talk
- Thread starter Uptrend
- Start date
coolhand
Well-known member
I mentioned the unexpected dollar rally in my blog last night. Something may be up, but I'll be darned if I'll call a top. 
Uptrend
Well-known member
Thinking down for the next 6 to 7 sessions; then up for the rest of 2010. Target after further review is SPX 1129 to 1145. 1188 is resistance and the next challenge and is near the 20 ema. Watching the USD to see how far equities retreat. So far USD on a tear for the last four sessions.
Uptrend
Well-known member
The market is supposed to go down in September; not up, and up in November, not down. The bond market is supposed to go up as a safety play when the market goes down and down when equities go up. This is not happening. Do I hear Bernanke manipulation FED policies whispered in the hallways?
My SPX targets:
View attachment 10190
SPX cash market went outside the yellow upward channel (looks white on the post), and is now resting on the upper boundary near 1207. If this breaks down, then the market will be back inside the big channel and the 1195-1198 area will be tested first, then 1176. IMO the market retrace target is between the 38.2% fibonacci coming in at 1143 and /or a minor low coming in at 1129. If it goes below this level we have a Elliot wave violation. However, I have no idea how it will play out. The market could bounce here and go right back up and test the 1230 area. Or the market could trade down for the next few sessions, go back and test the 1230 area and then fall down to the higher low in the 1145 area by December 08 based on cycle theory. Watching for clues.
The bond market as tracked by AGG looks to have fallen below the 50 sma. This is bearish for bonds. The FED is supposed to flood the market with 110 billion of bond buying next week, but I believe that has been priced in since the whisper statement about QE2 was made in Jackson Hole WY back on August 25. Look at the bond performance since then:
View attachment 10191
Up, up and away from 107.0 Looks like the market might back down to the 107 level as there is little support till then, and the 50 sma has been busted. I don't have a really good answer for this chart performance; only theories - like inflation expectations or that the Chinease or others will unload some US bonds by selling into it? Normally a bond demand should drive the price higher and the yield lower. Will this actually happen or backfire? The AGG chart says caution, so I would not invest in F, until we see a turn on the chart.
My SPX targets:
View attachment 10190
SPX cash market went outside the yellow upward channel (looks white on the post), and is now resting on the upper boundary near 1207. If this breaks down, then the market will be back inside the big channel and the 1195-1198 area will be tested first, then 1176. IMO the market retrace target is between the 38.2% fibonacci coming in at 1143 and /or a minor low coming in at 1129. If it goes below this level we have a Elliot wave violation. However, I have no idea how it will play out. The market could bounce here and go right back up and test the 1230 area. Or the market could trade down for the next few sessions, go back and test the 1230 area and then fall down to the higher low in the 1145 area by December 08 based on cycle theory. Watching for clues.
The bond market as tracked by AGG looks to have fallen below the 50 sma. This is bearish for bonds. The FED is supposed to flood the market with 110 billion of bond buying next week, but I believe that has been priced in since the whisper statement about QE2 was made in Jackson Hole WY back on August 25. Look at the bond performance since then:
View attachment 10191
Up, up and away from 107.0 Looks like the market might back down to the 107 level as there is little support till then, and the 50 sma has been busted. I don't have a really good answer for this chart performance; only theories - like inflation expectations or that the Chinease or others will unload some US bonds by selling into it? Normally a bond demand should drive the price higher and the yield lower. Will this actually happen or backfire? The AGG chart says caution, so I would not invest in F, until we see a turn on the chart.
Uptrend
Well-known member
"QE2 is akin to the Fed placing a gun to China's head, telling them to revalue their currency"
"One can of course argue that QE2 is clear market manipulation, that there's nothing free about it, except for the free money it creates."
"As far as investors are concerned, there's an old saying: don't fight the Fed. The Fed has a larger credit line than you do."
http://www.safehaven.com/article/18922/the-dollar-every-man-for-himself
"One can of course argue that QE2 is clear market manipulation, that there's nothing free about it, except for the free money it creates."
"As far as investors are concerned, there's an old saying: don't fight the Fed. The Fed has a larger credit line than you do."
http://www.safehaven.com/article/18922/the-dollar-every-man-for-himself
crws
Active member
Inking deals with India and SE Asia further diversifies our dependence on China as the main provider of imports, like having more than one round in the chamber- yuk, yuk
Now if we could do the same with the oil conglomerates, we'd be making dramatic headway.
I say go, Obama!, you anti-business Kenyan socialist.
Unbelievable propaganda....really
Wall Street Pay: A Record $144 Billion
Uptrend
Well-known member
Uptrend
Well-known member
The market has come to an important pivot; SPX 1193-1198 area. The market could bounce right here perhaps even back to the 1230 area or higher. It all depends on OEX next week, and the US dollar. Many of OEX have been positive lately, but with the overly bullish sentiment, it could easily trade down. Which lines up with cycle theory of a low in or around Dec 08. The USD has a positive divergence, so I don't think the run is done yet, even with the FED running the printing presses for QE2. Bonds are trading down and show no signs or turning yet which is somewhat strange. QE2 should make prices take off, but I guess it was mostly all priced in and then some. The $ coming out of bonds has to go somewhere; either held in cash or buy equities if a turn.
crws
Active member
I wonder if this is the real catalyst today:
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
Uptrend
Well-known member
This is a really good explanation of QE2. Makes you perhaps a little angry. Playing with fire.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=PTUY16CkS-k#
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=PTUY16CkS-k#
Uptrend
Well-known member
Thanks for the POMO schedule. The short and longer term bonds are still trading down. This upcoming bond buying money explosion should make the charts of AGG and TLT turn up; unless China or others are selling into it. In that case prices will stay flat or even decline like they are selling off now. IMO someone is unloading the truck, because the charts say so. I would like to buy the F fund, but will not do so until I see the momentum turn up. It's going to be interesting to see if that even happens.
crws
Active member
Along those lines, read this for more uplifting information- we have been owned.
Taibbi’s Takedown of ‘Vampire Squid’ Goldman Sachs
and this-
The Real Reason America’s Cities and Towns Are Broke
I'm fairly certain the latter is why my estimated retirement benefit from 13 years in the retail clerks union has been reduced by 1/3, and the Trust Fund is in financial crisis.
Uptrend
Well-known member
This might not be like previous months OEX weeks. The equity put/call ration is o.67 which could be viewed as bearish for stocks on a contrarian basis.
Also, SPX (for C fund) trend is nuetral, Russell 2000 (for S fund) is nuetral, EFA (for I fund) is downtrending and AGG (for F fund) is downtrending. USD is nuetral to uptrending. Gold (GLD) has pulled back to nuetral.
Conclusion: More nuetral action to cooling off in the coming week. Might be a big bounce day, but perhaps no holding power. We shall see. In cash.
Also, SPX (for C fund) trend is nuetral, Russell 2000 (for S fund) is nuetral, EFA (for I fund) is downtrending and AGG (for F fund) is downtrending. USD is nuetral to uptrending. Gold (GLD) has pulled back to nuetral.
Conclusion: More nuetral action to cooling off in the coming week. Might be a big bounce day, but perhaps no holding power. We shall see. In cash.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Gap down on AGG (for F fund) this AM. Bond prices keep falling as the POMO buying starts. Gold up a little, but looks like a bear flag (GLD). SPX and RUT hourly charts not in synch with daily charts; daily down while hourly can rise for next 6-10 trading hours (into tomorrow AM). Important resistance above on hourly charts however. Dollar is up 0.40% on UUP.
crws
Active member
the banking sector gets a payday loan, as they furiously try to repo and sell the Fed as many toxic asset properties as possible before the end of the year, when they will be required to offer a rewrite of 2nd mortgages as well.
Market Update
12:00 pm : Stocks recently staged a nice run up to fresh session highs. The move has been broad, but financials are still in the lead as they now sport a 1.5% gain.
Though considered stodgy by many, telecom has had one of the better performances of the session. That sector is up 1.0%, tied with industrials (+1.0%) for second place behind financials. Telecom is currently led by Dow components and integrated giants AT&T (T 28.88, +0.42) and Verizon (VZ 32.90, +0.34). DJ30 +75.87 NASDAQ +11.37 SP500 +7.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1787/805 mln/734 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2035/298 mln/837
11:30 am : Financials continue to outperform by a wide margin. Specifically, the sector is up 1.2%, which is about triple the gain of the broader market.
Diversified banks make up one of the biggest and best performing industry groups within the financial sector. They are collectively up 1.8%. Investment banks and brokerages are close behind with a 1.5% gain. Consumer finance stocks, up 1.4%, are also strong amid monthly credit card metrics from such issuers as American Express (AXP 43.15, +0.45), Discover Financial (DFS 19.05, +0.45), and Capital One (COF 40.21, +0.94) -- delinquency rates for AXP declined and net charge offs for the latter two also turned lower. DJ30 +49.50 NASDAQ +3.71 SP500 +4.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1641/710 mln/848 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1804/250 mln/989
https://www.hmpadmin.com/portal/programs/docs/hamp_servicer/mhahandbook_20.pdf
"Chapter V: Second Lien Modification Program The Second Lien Modification Program (2MP) is designed to work in tandem with HAMP to offer borrowers with second mortgage liens even greater affordability. Under 2MP, when a borrower’s first lien is modified under HAMP and the servicer of the second lien is a 2MP participant, that servicer must offer to modify the borrower’s second lien according to a defined protocol and/or to accept a lump sum payment from Treasury in exchange for full or partial extinguishment of the second lien. All servicers of eligible second lien Non-GSE Mortgages may participate in 2MP. A servicer need not service the related first lien or participate in HAMP in order to participate in 2MP.
http://makinghomeaffordable.gov/lien_modification.html
Market Update
12:00 pm : Stocks recently staged a nice run up to fresh session highs. The move has been broad, but financials are still in the lead as they now sport a 1.5% gain.
Though considered stodgy by many, telecom has had one of the better performances of the session. That sector is up 1.0%, tied with industrials (+1.0%) for second place behind financials. Telecom is currently led by Dow components and integrated giants AT&T (T 28.88, +0.42) and Verizon (VZ 32.90, +0.34). DJ30 +75.87 NASDAQ +11.37 SP500 +7.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1787/805 mln/734 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2035/298 mln/837
11:30 am : Financials continue to outperform by a wide margin. Specifically, the sector is up 1.2%, which is about triple the gain of the broader market.
Diversified banks make up one of the biggest and best performing industry groups within the financial sector. They are collectively up 1.8%. Investment banks and brokerages are close behind with a 1.5% gain. Consumer finance stocks, up 1.4%, are also strong amid monthly credit card metrics from such issuers as American Express (AXP 43.15, +0.45), Discover Financial (DFS 19.05, +0.45), and Capital One (COF 40.21, +0.94) -- delinquency rates for AXP declined and net charge offs for the latter two also turned lower. DJ30 +49.50 NASDAQ +3.71 SP500 +4.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1641/710 mln/848 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1804/250 mln/989
https://www.hmpadmin.com/portal/programs/docs/hamp_servicer/mhahandbook_20.pdf
"Chapter V: Second Lien Modification Program The Second Lien Modification Program (2MP) is designed to work in tandem with HAMP to offer borrowers with second mortgage liens even greater affordability. Under 2MP, when a borrower’s first lien is modified under HAMP and the servicer of the second lien is a 2MP participant, that servicer must offer to modify the borrower’s second lien according to a defined protocol and/or to accept a lump sum payment from Treasury in exchange for full or partial extinguishment of the second lien. All servicers of eligible second lien Non-GSE Mortgages may participate in 2MP. A servicer need not service the related first lien or participate in HAMP in order to participate in 2MP.
http://makinghomeaffordable.gov/lien_modification.html
Uptrend
Well-known member
Thanks WORKFE. I think the 38.2% fibonacci could be reasonable coming in at SPX 1143. Will evaluate again tonight. Based on the progress the selling may be over by early next week. The trade might be F first in a day or so and then switch to C and S. USD still rising and so don't know about I.
Similar threads
- Article
