Uptrend's Account Talk

[Uptrend]

You'll both need a crash to make any tracker progress. Bullitt #348, Uptrend #425.

In all fairness, I made some mistakes while my trading system was under development. That is learning. I believe the signals are quite reliable now. It takes a scientific mind, a lot of study, and trial and error to make a system. Also, it takes just several bad days to fall down in the pit from your perch. Without a plan and discipline, IMO you will fail. Buy and hold I suppose is a plan, but IMO is a bad plan. You are taking a huge market risk exposure, by being in all days. Just suppose a "flash crash" of much larger magnitude occurred. You would be wiped out. Trading is like bio-rhythms, or the ebb and flow of life; one needs to get in synch.

 

[Birchtree]

Chance favors the prepared mind. 1978, '79 didn't wipe me out. Neither did 1982, 1987, 2002, 2008, or March '09, nope I just get stronger taking those spills as buying opportunities. Granted it does require the correct diversification in owning stocks and I'm not always a buy and holder - I do take some selling to heart.

 

[Bullitt]

Birch, you know I've been on the Pequod long enough to understand that minor setbacks are nothing more than body blows. Call me Starbuck. I know you've read a classic novel or two in your day, so you can see my metaphor here.

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Uptrend: Past results are not indicative of future performance.

 

[Uptrend]

Why take the risk?

The market has been trading in a box for months; SPX 1010-1131, and most of that time 1040-1110. This should resolve soon. Either an ugly downwave or a slog upwards. Bullishness foolishness is growing, and as you know that is bearish.

Let's see:
Auto sales down, home sales down, business hiring up but at a crawl and pretty much dead (can't keep up with new folks entering market), unemployment up, President waffle policies, European debt, China inflation, Iran nuclear program most likley for armed missles, North Korea out of control, Taliban fear and sucide tactics, fringe church inciting world unrest... let's ring the cash register and see what we get....more upsdie?

 

[KevinD]

Wheres our short option? TSP loan and a trading account?

 

[Gumby]

Why take the risk?

Let's see:
Auto sales down, home sales down, business hiring up but at a crawl and pretty much dead (can't keep up with new folks entering market), unemployment up, President waffle policies, European debt, China inflation, Iran nuclear program most likley for armed missles, North Korea out of control, Taliban fear and sucide tactics, fringe church inciting world unrest... let's ring the cash register and see what we get....more upsdie?

Exactly........ FED pumping more money into the markets? S&P climbing wall of worry?

 

[Uptrend]

Wanna know why the F fund gained 0.29% today while the S fund was gaining 1.97%? (In a normal market equities would be declining when Treasurys are rapidly rising) Fed pumping. That's right!

For 9 upcoming sessions from Sept. 15 to Oct 6 the FED is buying about 27 billion in Treasurys. I can't even think that big. Who the heck needs equities and all that risk. Time for a F fund moonshot! I see that the 10 YR Treasury Note ($TNX) reversed off the 50 ema with a little overshoot and is heading down. I was expecting a bounce (down) when I bought in the F fund on Friday, but did not expect this development.

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-york-fed-plans-to-buy-27-bln-in-treasurys-2010-09-13-1414220

PS If it ain't the computer assisted trading desk pumpers bullying the market with low volume trading and gaps and such, it's the FED manipulating long term interest rates (down). This should be no surprise. If Europe falls apart again, then the F fund just hit the jackpot.

 

[Uptrend]

Here is another reason (also see commentary in last post #1810 as they go together) that the F fund should do very well in the coming days.

"The structure of the new rules require that Tier 1 Capital be 7% of risk weighted assets; in formulaic terms – Tier 1 Capital / Risk Weighted Assets = 7%. In our view, the markets are too focused on the numerator and have ignored the denominator. To adjust for risk weightings, bank assets are assigned a rating from 0 to 100, with 0 being the “safest” assets like government bonds and 100 being the riskiest of assets."

and
"In our view, instead of raising capital, banks that need to boost their ratio have an incentive to shed risky assets and buy government bonds. In fact, this may be the quickest and easiest to comply with the new guidelines."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/224988-basel-iii-bullish-for-bonds?source=yahoo

Have I convinced anybody that the F fund is a good bet yet?

 

[crws]

Here is another reason (also see commentary in last post #1810 as they go together) that the F fund should do very well in the coming days.

"The structure of the new rules require that Tier 1 Capital be 7% of risk weighted assets; in formulaic terms – Tier 1 Capital / Risk Weighted Assets = 7%. In our view, the markets are too focused on the numerator and have ignored the denominator. To adjust for risk weightings, bank assets are assigned a rating from 0 to 100, with 0 being the “safest” assets like government bonds and 100 being the riskiest of assets."

and
"In our view, instead of raising capital, banks that need to boost their ratio have an incentive to shed risky assets and buy government bonds. In fact, this may be the quickest and easiest to comply with the new guidelines."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/224988-basel-iii-bullish-for-bonds?source=yahoo

Have I convinced anybody that the F fund is a good bet yet?

cr@p! Just ift'd 1/2 out of F.
I was wondering what was happening.
Bennie did mention that this would occur.
I wonder- since the next month's purchase schedule release date is on the 13th, has the market been anticipating this move, hence the 1st DOM surges?
I wonder what qualifies as a risky asset....UK holdings?

Nice Dig!
Thanks for sharing.

 

[crws]

Here is another reason (also see commentary in last post #1810 as they go together) that the F fund should do very well in the coming days.

"The structure of the new rules require that Tier 1 Capital be 7% of risk weighted assets; in formulaic terms – Tier 1 Capital / Risk Weighted Assets = 7%. In our view, the markets are too focused on the numerator and have ignored the denominator. To adjust for risk weightings, bank assets are assigned a rating from 0 to 100, with 0 being the “safest” assets like government bonds and 100 being the riskiest of assets."

and
"In our view, instead of raising capital, banks that need to boost their ratio have an incentive to shed risky assets and buy government bonds. In fact, this may be the quickest and easiest to comply with the new guidelines."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/224988-basel-iii-bullish-for-bonds?source=yahoo

Have I convinced anybody that the F fund is a good bet yet?

Hey!
I think I've got it...
Bank's riskiest assets are foreclosed homes. What do you want to bet mortgage rates will fall below 4%.
The purchases at the end of Sept go out to 2040. 30 years.

 

[Uptrend]

Just think about those homeowners that refinanced at 5% because they thought that was the market bottom and a good deal, then 4.5%. Just wait, 3% is coming, then 2.5%?

With the Fed and banks buying bonds, other investors buying them as as safety play (like Europeans, and like me) in my mind leads to a bond bubble. But thats a ways off. Lets ride this elevator up till there is some real growth in the economy; not just trading charades

 

[crws]

Just think about those homeowners that refinanced at 5% because they thought that was the market bottom and a good deal, then 4.5%. Just wait, 3% is coming, then 2.5%?

With the Fed and banks buying bonds, other investors buying them as as safety play (like Europeans, and like me) in my mind leads to a bond bubble. But thats a ways off. Lets ride this elevator up till there is some real growth in the economy; not just trading charades

As go financial stocks, so goes the market.
Welcome to stimulus! Oh, bad word.
QE

 

[Uptrend]

Market forecast Down to Oct 8; then turn.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22695.html

 

[Uptrend]

Can U say F Fund?

"A reduction in inflation risks also expands the Federal Reserve’s leeway to launch a major asset-purchase program to further support the economy. Several analysts, including those at Miller Tabak, had already expected the Fed to implement such a program toward the end of this year or early 2011, said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak “A flat reading on core inflation only increases those odds,” Greenhaus said. “The bond market is rallying in response.” "

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasurys-extend-gain-on-benign-inflation-data-2010-09-17

 

[crws]

Can U say F Fund?

"A reduction in inflation risks also expands the Federal Reserve’s leeway to launch a major asset-purchase program to further support the economy. Several analysts, including those at Miller Tabak, had already expected the Fed to implement such a program toward the end of this year or early 2011, said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak “A flat reading on core inflation only increases those odds,” Greenhaus said. “The bond market is rallying in response.” "

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasurys-extend-gain-on-benign-inflation-data-2010-09-17

fyi-
More for the growing list!

 

[Corepuncher]

Can U say F Fund?

"A reduction in inflation risks also expands the Federal Reserve’s leeway to launch a major asset-purchase program to further support the economy. Several analysts, including those at Miller Tabak, had already expected the Fed to implement such a program toward the end of this year or early 2011, said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak “A flat reading on core inflation only increases those odds,” Greenhaus said. “The bond market is rallying in response.” "

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasurys-extend-gain-on-benign-inflation-data-2010-09-17

Yes I can! As luck would have it, I went all in F fund back on September 9th...near the lows. Plan on staying the course as the macro backdrop sure looks good to me. Also, what's good for Santelli is good for me as well!

 

[Uptrend]

Glad I am holding FAZ with the mortgage mess that keeps leaking out

 

[Steadygain]

Glad I am holding FAZ with the mortgage mess that keeps leaking out

I'm grateful gas isn't over $5 a gallon and whatever other benefits all this has offered and I hope it all works out.

For now I'm good in 'safety' and I don't expect any huge changes in the short run - unless it's more of a substantial drop.

I guess I don't think about 'double dips' and whatever anymore - but am just waiting .... which may be another year ... who knows.

Anyway -- glad you're back Uptrend.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Glad I am holding FAZ with the mortgage mess that keeps leaking out

WOW, you've been gone for a month and you come back holding FAZ? Great timing!!

 

[Uptrend]

Call me crazy but I see: USD made a higher low and should go up; Bonds ie AGG above 50 ema and looks like a bull flag; SPX hit 1187 resistane point and we see long topping tail; Sentiment is very bullish. All this looks like a top is being put in. It will break out or SPX 1187 to 1150 before long