Uptrend's Account Talk

[nasa1974]

Uptrend, Thanks for the information. Good to know.

 

[Frixxxx]

If the 20 ema gets taken out to the upside, I will rebalance to S/C and get out of I, as it will then suffer. This would also probably make the market go more trendless.

My entire investment existence would be better if this actually happened! Need that 20 ema to go to the upside!

As always Uptrend, good call!

 

[Uptrend]

The market has entered a trendless trading range and is not showing it's hand. Same for the US dollar. It could go up or down and nobody really knows, despite what people tell you. There are some clues in the TA and charts. Let's look.

Here is fibonacci math. From the top in April in a down direction: SPX 1220 - 1041 =179, so 179 *0.5 (fib retracement level)= 90 = 1041 =1131. Guess what: the SPX cash price hit 1131 on 6/21. Further from 1131 in a down direction:, 1131- 1041 = 90, and 90* 0.5 (50% fib leve) = 45, and 1131-45 = 1086. This is a possible turn level, as the market has already passed the 38.2 fib level at 1097.

There are several Elliot wave theory (EWT) possibilities. Here are two of them: 1) We are starting wave 3 of 12345 down, where 135 are downwaves and 24 are upwaves. Wave 1: 1220 -1041, wave 2: 1041-1131, Wave 3: 1131 - and underway. Since the 50 ema is still above the 200 ema this is lower priority in my mind. Downside levels to watch: 1086 and as a last resort 1076, if this breaks so do downside floodgates 2) The market is trendless and consolidating; waiting to go higher. Wave from 1220 - 1041 was a X conncetor wave, and now we are starting wave 1 up of 12345 that has subparts for wave 1 of abc or abcde. We are currently in wave b. Levels to watch for upside confirmation: market gains back 1107 -1113 area soon and then 1136.

The large caps looks a little stronger than the secondary market. My system is still in buy mode, but barely. Emotions say sell, but TA says hold and watch, so let's see what happens.

 

[Uptrend]

The SPX cash market is currently in a sideways trading range trapped between the 1058 and 1108 areas. When sideways or trendless trading occurs, it confounds my system buy/sell signals, and I think it messes up a lot of systems. The trendline system below on my signature line (formally Bushwhacker, just renamed) is straddling the fence and wants to sell, but has not pulled the trigger. The market is just consolidating and jumping about within this range. So far, the 50 ema is above the 200 ema and that is a good sign. The market is also below the 200 ema coming in at 1095, and that is not so good. It needs to get above that soon to stay out of hot water. The market is starting to get oversold and some positive divergences are appearing. Further, positive divergences are appearing on the weekly charts, mostly for the C and I fund, but not S yet, which suggests that the uptrend will continue within a week or so.

So my emotions say sell, but the system says no, so what can I say - other than hanging in there and waiting for the reversal. Or course if the internals weaken much further, I am out. But more or less trendless trading has not put us there yet. If you are in, hang on and sweat; if out relax.

 

[airlift]

Uptrend,

On June 23, you were analyzing the possibilities, as per Elliot wave theory (EWT). One of which was "Downside levels to watch: 1086 and as a last resort 1076, if this breaks so do downside floodgates". With the SPX having closed yesterday at 1073.69, I am apprehensive today with having opened the floodgates. I wonder how much of a downside is still to come. It's really been a heck of a beating! Thank you for your views, as always.

 

[Uptrend]

Airlift:
Yes, 1076 is the 61.8% fibonacci level from the recent SPX 1131 high. It's actually more like 1075.38. At any rate this level has been slightly exceeded, and this is worrysome. My indicators are teetering on the edge with a lot of sell sell sell, but the master switch has not been tripped. So caution is advisod as it always is in a trendless market.

After further review, what I note on the ES/ futures chart (see chart below but nearly the same as SPX, just about 6 points lower all the time but you get the idea) is that trendline coming up from the March 09 666 low that connects with the 1041 low (SPX value) and now is going right through the 1058 pivot point (SPX value) (white box target). IMO if you stay in, this is the short-term downside risk you are taking (at least for the C fund), of about another 1.5%. There should be a bounce here! This is the critical line in the sand.

View attachment 9619

 

[nasa1974]

Airlift:
Yes, 1076 is the 61.8% fibonacci level from the recent SPX 1131 high. It's actually more like 1075.38. At any rate this level has been slightly exceeded, and this is worrysome. My indicators are teetering on the edge with a lot of sell sell sell, but the master switch has not been tripped. So caution is advisod as it always is in a trendless market.

After further review, what I note on the ES/ futures chart (see chart below but nearly the same as SPX, just about 6 points lower all the time but you get the idea) is that trendline coming up from the March 09 666 low that connects with the 1041 low (SPX value) and now is going right through the 1058 pivot point (SPX value) (white box target). IMO if you stay in, this is the short-term downside risk you are taking (at least for the C fund), of about another 1.5%. There should be a bounce here! This is the critical line in the sand.

View attachment 9619

I agree that this line is critical. If support breaks we will sink like a rock. However, with that said, if we do get a nice bounce and early July is kind to the market one bad report could still send us crashing through that support line.

 

[Uptrend]

It sure didn't look that way on Thrusday, but today the market has turned up and a new uptrend has started in the daily timeframe. A downtrend has started for the US dollar in the daily timeframe. Could be a market blast upwards Monday. Looked like a shake out the weak hands move. A higher low is in place. Now we go. Fully invested.

 

[Uptrend]

Here is the performance 2010 YTD for TSP Trendline Trading System.

I have been developing this system for the last five years. It is on my signature line. You can watch the system work, as I will be publishing the trades buy /sell signals as they come up. There should not be any more changes as it is now pretty much designed. The (G outside trade) or (F outside trade) means that you park 100% in G or F while out of the active markets. The trade yield and the outside market yield has been summed together. Yields, positive or negative, are summed on a daily basis for a trade, but percents are not applied until a performance update is needed, so as to not distort the true results. 30 30 30 10 means a TSP allocation of 30% C 30% S 30% I and 10% F. An G or F suffix means that you are either 100% in G or F while not in the active market in a trade.

The TSPTrendline system works well with the limited 2 IFT's per month, as backtesting shows that on average there are 6-8 trades per year. Results are very good as you can see. The S fund has the best performance, and the TSP allocation 30 30 30 10 F has the next best performance this year.



TSPTrendline System C% S% I% 2010 YTD
(G outside trade) 6.82 9.21 6.67
(F outside trade) 8.11 10.50 7.96
30 30 30 10 G 7.16%
30 30 30 10 F 8.45%
Buy and Hold -2.51 4.49 -10.10
2 completed trades YTD
In 3rd trade currently
41% market time exposure YTD

 

[airlift]

Airlift:
Yes, 1076 is the 61.8% fibonacci level from the recent SPX 1131 high. It's actually more like 1075.38. At any rate this level has been slightly exceeded, and this is worrysome. My indicators are teetering on the edge with a lot of sell sell sell, but the master switch has not been tripped. So caution is advisod as it always is in a trendless market.

After further review, what I note on the ES/ futures chart (see chart below but nearly the same as SPX, just about 6 points lower all the time but you get the idea) is that trendline coming up from the March 09 666 low that connects with the 1041 low (SPX value) and now is going right through the 1058 pivot point (SPX value) (white box target). IMO if you stay in, this is the short-term downside risk you are taking (at least for the C fund), of about another 1.5%. There should be a bounce here! This is the critical line in the sand.

View attachment 9619

Uptrend,

The chart you posted yesterday at 10:40 AM showed a trendline number to the right of the chart at 1067.5. It is compelling to see that the SPX intraday low was 1067.89; and that SPX bounced and closed at 1076.76. Good work you are doing! Thanks again.

 

[Uptrend]

Uptrend,

The chart you posted yesterday at 10:40 AM showed a trendline number to the right of the chart at 1067.5. It is compelling to see that the SPX intraday low was 1067.89; and that SPX bounced and closed at 1076.76. Good work you are doing! Thanks again.

Airlift:
In all fairness, note that previous chart I posted was /ES futures, not SPX cash. I explained that in the post. Here is the SPX print on the daily timeframe through Friday, June 26, and my interpretation

View attachment 9626

On chart image quality, there might be some loss in quality on the chart image sharpness, on my end, because Think-or-Swim software, doesn't let you save directly; you must save a picture image. Or, the loss of quality could be on TSPTalk end where the picture density is automatically reduced? (Perhaps Tom or his crew knows if this occurs?)

At any rate the market is being sneaky. The uptrend was in danger of falling apart, but has turned up again, based on various reliable indicators I have. On the enclosed chart for example, you can see that the MACD histogram is above the 0 line (good for more positive price action) and the MACD line does not have a bearish cross even though it turned down. Monday could be up 20-30 handles on SPX cash, but only Monday trading will tell.

Now to the SPX cash chart. This is the story of two channels. First you notice that SPX cash came down to 1067.89 and stopped on top of the channel boundary (in magenta) that frames the top of the 3rd wave and bottom of the 4th wave in the previous uptrend ending at SPX 1220. You will also notice that this line intersects the primary red important line coming up from the Mar 2009 666 low, and touching the extreme right side of the chart near SPX 1060. We have real good double support here. The price action on Friday is a backtest of the magenta channel that points down, with the top at SPX 1060 and the bottom at SPX 965, and tells me that price has decided to not fall into it for now. Backtests are normal and happen all the time. Next you will note that there is a green channel with the base (at the extreme right) going through about SPX 1106 and the top at about SPX 1270. If the uptrend is to continue the market must get back into this channel. There is considerable resistance in the 1100 area that the market must navigate. So, the first order of business is for the market to get into the green channel, do a backtest, and then go towareds the 1150 area, where the bollinger band is currently pointing down towards. Of course it will rise when the market rises. So, will the market follow channel 1 (pointing down) or channel two (pointing up). Your TSP account depends on it!

 

[Uptrend]

See my various post below over this weekend.

My trendline system is still on a buy, but my concern level is high. See YTD performance.

This market is just not acting like a bull. Can all the negative news out there really be priced in? IMO we will rally for a few days and backtest the 200 sma near SPX 1112, then falter, then fall. Why? Because momentum is still weak, and I can't see what will strengthen it. We could be in transition between a bull and a bear, so caution is advised.

 

[Uptrend]

The market appears a bit scary. The OEX put call ratio hit a very low 0.39 today. Either we bounce up big or go down, but a big move is coming. I liken it to winding a spring. Now the US dollar trend is still down believe it or not, and the SPX trend is nuetral, but still intact. I see the futures are sliding overnight. SPX 1058 must hold, or a bad downwave would result. Still in the game, and hoping for higher highs and higher lows. The weekly charts are still positive. Let's see what happens.

 

[Birchtree]

We are set up for a nice reversal tail today - but probably not.

 

[crws]

thanks for sharing your optimism :laugh:
Hope you got your shorts in order...

We are set up for a nice reversal tail today - but probably not.

 

[poolman]

We are set up for a nice reversal tail today - but probably not.

With the amount of problems in the US let alone the world the writing is slowing starting to show on the wall that we may be in for a
Double Dip.

Obama is hardly in the media like he was 6 months ago. He has gotten sucked so deeply into his job that now he cannot get anything done. The stilts are starting to give out.

 

[Scout333]

thanks for sharing your optimism :laugh:
Hope you got your shorts in order...

I believe mine are in a knot! Sticky pants reaally need changing!

 

[Uptrend]

That was a huge drop. My system tripped to slow, but it is now gone to G. Some of the TA was not in agreement, with some on sell and some on buy. That should have been a warning to me. I think wave 3 down is just getting going. Wave 3's are usually the worst and many times extend. Wave 1 down SPX 1041, wave 2, 1131, wave 3 underway. There probably won't be much of a bounce until more downside is realized. If we take the 179 point decline from 1220 - 1041 and assume wave 3 is equal (many times they extend more than wave 1 or wave 5) that goes to 952. Look for a significant bounce in that area or a little lower.


For those on the sidelines, it is too dangerous to enter here. A false sense of security and then the point blank attack. Like a pack of hungry coyotes.

Another way to look at the decline. Take the entire bull market from 666 over the last year, and calculating a 38.2% fibonacci lands at 877. This number is entirely possible.

 

[crws]

I've been spreading this around because I think it is very relevant- lots of data.
http://gbr.pepperdine.edu/043/stocks.html
Presidential Elections and Stock Market Cycles
Can you profit from the relationship?
Marshall D. Nickles, Ed

For the past several decades, individuals in all walks of life have observed the cyclical nature of the stock market. Pundits have attempted to correlate these cycles with everything from referencing the position of the moon and stars to using highly sophisticated econometric models. This article, however, attempts to address the timely relationship between politics and stock market behavior.

 

[Uptrend]

On the road today. Looking at the markets, I see possibly a short term bottom forming, with a roadblock at SPX 1041 - that will be pretty good resistance. The market could go up and test, fall back down to the 1008 area, and then spring off a double bottom for one of those 70 point runs.

This seems like earnings report warm-up market jitters.

My trend indicators say that the USD markets are still down, but that EFA is bottoming. We'll see.