Uptrend's Account Talk

[Uptrend]

I know this message is getting boring, but there is nothing new. The little bounce today won't go anywhere, as my charts tell me that it should be contained at about SPX 1069.

It is now probable that the SPX 950 target area is in play, because the market has dropped into a lower channel. The bottom of this channel is bound by 10/01/09 and 2/04/10 price action, to draw the lower boundary that points at 950. The top of this sloping channel is 1069. If the market can't clear it soon, it will fall deeper into it. MACD is down.

My indicators say "wait."

 

[nasa1974]

I know this message is getting boring, but there is nothing new. The little bounce today won't go anywhere, as my charts tell me that it should be contained at about SPX 1069.

It is now probable that the SPX 950 target area is in play, because the market has dropped into a lower channel. The bottom of this channel is bound by 10/01/09 and 2/04/10 price action, to draw the lower boundary that points at 950. The top of this sloping channel is 1069. If the market can't clear it soon, it will fall deeper into it. MACD is down.

My indicators say "wait."

Uptrend, Let's hope it's later than sooner. I sure would like to see a 1-2% rise so I can get my real account out of negative territory and then jump onto the lily pad. It does feel that the rest of the summer will reflect the troubles May dished out.

 

[Bullitt]

Uptrend, no love for the "declining wedge" pattern?

 

[Uptrend]

Uptrend, no love for the "declining wedge" pattern?

The market is full of surprises, as I was not expecting this price action. The SPX cash market has now poked up out of a steep falling channel, but there is all kinds of resistance overhead in the 1100 area. There could be a right shoulder developing, and in this case the intermediate high target is the 1150 area or slightly higher near 1166. The current intermediate low target has now changed to around 1018.

The back and forth wild swings are troublesome. Precursor of a crash? Of course now we would have a gentlemans crash with the SEC trial curbs in place.

Since I am only trading trends, I am waiting. By my indicators a trend has not started yet. Just a lot of slop, where day traders are gaining or losing. Let'em battle each other.

 

[coolhand]

The back and forth wild swings are troublesome. Precursor of a crash? Of course now we would have a gentlemans crash with the SEC trial curbs in place.

Since I am only trading trends, I am waiting. By my indicators a trend has not started yet. Just a lot of slop, where day traders are gaining or losing. Let'em battle each other.

My sentiments exactly.

 

[Birchtree]

We had many MCO cross over buy signals on their components yesterday. The 19 EMA crossed above the 39 EMA for a buy signal.

 

[crws]

hey, are you taking some profit on that BP?
Everybody's doing it!

 

[Birchtree]

Why take profits on BP - I plan to buy more and hold it for years as perhaps one of my core holdings producing income. BP provided a contrarian like myself a golden opportunity to acquire shares at give away prices and someday the capital gains will provide another chance at another throw away company. The future is very bright.

 

[crws]

here you go- some entertainment


FIFA World Cup Group C
Group CMatch Date - Time Venue

Results5
06/12 - 11:30pst
Rustenburg England Preview USA

 

[Uptrend]

http://wallstreet1928.ning.com/video/robert-prechter-on-cnbcs

 

[Uptrend]

Based on the close Friday, my trend based Bushwhacker System has flipped to a buy for C, S, I. This system will ignore the day to day changes and trades the trend that I expect to unfold at least through the 4th of July.

Because the dollar chart looks toppy, I expect the to USD to fall as well. I will IFT in tomorrow with more weighted to I.

I am expecting an inverse H&S to set up with a target near SPX 1170. This may be the countertrend wave 2 of 5 down from the 1220 top in EWT terms, but we will need to wait and see.

 

[Uptrend]

Trade is underway. Buy signal is confirmed. VIX actually moved down 0.21 to 28.58. There was an attempt to clear the SPX 1106 area pivot, but fell back. This is test #1. There should be more tests. Could be some daily or intra-day swings while doing so; well have to wait and see. I will not second guess my indicators, my emotions are left out of it, and we shall see what the next few days bring. Tentative target is 1170. UUP (power shares USD bullish fund) is moving down, MACD histogram is below the zero line, and backtested the 5 ema. This dollar weakness should help the I fund, and also prop up the market.

 

[Uptrend]

Vix down again this AM. UUP down as well. EFA is soaring, as it has cleared the important 49.3 level. Perhaps the SPX cash market can clear the 1107 pivort today or tomorrow. Then it's off to the races to the 1130 zone.

 

[Uptrend]

It appears that Europe/Asia is leading the US markets. Initial trade targets for the I fund are shown below as regtangluar boxes, for the USD futures and the EFA charts:
View attachment 9573

For the USD, the shaded box shows the initial trade target, between the 50 ema and the bollinger band.

View attachment 9574

For EFA the initial rectangle target is between the bollinger band, 200ema and a resistance line coming from elsewhere in previous timeframes.

Nice kick today!

 

[Uptrend]

This rally is largly manufactured so far, and right now the SPX and EFa are below their 50 ema's and trying to get through. There could be a little more cooling and then an assult later today or tomorrow. Ascending triangles are forming that usually break to the upside.

 

[Uptrend]

Rally is gaining steam. The SPX is outside the BB on the hourly and cooling a little, but the uptrend continues on the daily. Based purely on TA and no news etc,, it appears that the logical top will be the the 1174 to 1237 range. Yep, either a lower high or a double top with a slightly higher high. The 50 ema was cleared this AM, and now the 50 is pulling away from the 200 ema, so no bearish cross in sight. This puts the brakes on the recent downtrend.

Since I am 60% in I at the moment, I am watching the dollar /DX futures and the UUP. On both charts the retracement is close to the 50 ema's, so a downward pause might be in the cards soon. So I might jump purely to the S fund, or C/S combo. However, further down on the UUP there are 2 gaps that need filling, so I think more Euro rally is probably going to happen.

Have a great day!

 

[Scout333]

[QUOTE=Uptrend;276303]Rally is gaining steam. The SPX is outside the BB on the hourly and cooling a little, but the uptrend continues on the daily. QUOTE]Uptrend, Do you think this rally has legs? Or are we looking at real short-term bounce?

 

[Uptrend]

It has legs, as long as the US dollar is falling and FED monetary policy of easy money at near 0 bank lending rate continues. High unemployment has put a damper on inflation, while economy is slowly expanding, or expected to in the 3-4th Q. Remember the market looks ahead.

 

[Scout333]

Thanks for your help!

 

[Uptrend]

Market consolidating and indicators are ok. SPX is holding a very important 1111 balance beam and the next is at 1136. Note that the 20 ema is above the 200 ema now and moving towards the 50 ema, and that the 50 ema is now pulling away from the 200 ema. That bearish cross didn't happen.

The US dollar is another matter. It has not hit the lower BB since last October on either UUP or the futures /DX. Currently it is trapped between the 20 ema and 50 ema, but the MACD histogram is showing a positive bias. When most all past UUP MACD histograms move off their lows, while below the 0 line, and get a higher confirmation, the US dollar then takes off. So, it looks like more upside to me, although there is the possibility of one more test of the 50 ema. So it might just be a bounce, with more donwside. If the 20 ema gets taken out to the upside, I will rebalance to S/C and get out of I, as it will then suffer. This would also probably make the market go more trendless.