Uptrend's Account Talk

[nasa1974]

Thanks Uptrend for the info.

 

[Nordic]

My bushwhacker system system has flipped to a buy today; C,S,I.

There are dragonfly doji candlesticks on all the major indices yesterday (bullish) and EFA and the Euro as well. There is a gravestone doji on the US dollar (bearish) and I expect a correction there to at least the 20 ema at around 84, and it could overshoot to 83ish. The McClellan Oscillator has a positive divergence and heading up, so breadth is picking up. Some longer term indicators I watch are turning positive. Believe it or not, this may be the bottom of the recent correction. At any rate it is wave 1 up, and what I believe could be a bullish 12345.

Key support on EFA held. SPX is near the 1146 pivot and this must be cleared for the advance to continue.

Here's to optimism Let's get that wave 1 rollin'.

 

[Uptrend]

I am still holding to May 19, today as the turn date +- 2 days, according to my analysis. We should get a run until about June 9 and then we shall see after that. Remember, this week is being somewhat controlled by OPEX, so there will probably be some more volatility. It is possible to still visit the SPX 1107 pivot and then the 200 ema near 1100, and these are strong support areas. Contrary to what some believe, the bull market run may not be over. Some dollars are coming out of gold today (GLD) and silver (SLV) is down with the inverse (ZSL) kicking (lucky for me cuz I'm holding a position). In times of market stress, traders buy metals as a hedge, but some of that evaporates when the fear subsides. The VIX is still too high in the mid 30's, and is actually up this AM - it needs to work down. I still think we shall see some traction soon. If SPX 1100 is taken out, with several closes below (not just a fake-out) than get out.

 

[WorkFE]

Thanks uptrend your insight is appreciated

 

[Uptrend]

Whacked again! My 2010 trading so far has been terrible. At least I can admit it. Some of the technical signals that were developing are not reliable and breached. So I am down to several basic tried and true signals, and won't budge from them. Right now they point down. Of course on SPX cash the 20 ema is below the 50 ema (bearish) and the market is below the 200 ema. Might now be developing a neckline with the February low for a head and shoulders topping pattern, so need a final downward push to the 1040 area to complete this first downdraft. The right shoulder development would push the market back up to the 1150 zone.

 

[Uptrend]

Scenario A
A retracement of the entire advance from SPX 666 to 1220 is probably underway. Primary targets include the 38.2% fibonacci at 1009, 50% at 944 and 61.8% at 878; with either of the first two being the most probable. Because the character of the downtrend has changed and exceeded the 9.2% of several previous drops in the bull market advance over the last year (currently 13.4% at 1056 low so far) more downside is highly likely to occur.

Scenario B
This morning the SPX cash market is sitting on a stronger (longer) channel line going back to 7/13/09 low, and draws a very good channel through the highs and lows. This is providing temporary support. If this holds, scenario A is not in play and all we have is another one month correction in an ongoing bull market. The market will tell us soon enough which one is in play.

 

[mayday]

Scenario A
A retracement of the entire advance from SPX 666 to 1220 is probably underway. Primary targets include the 38.2% fibonacci at 1009, 50% at 944 and 61.8% at 878; with either of the first two being the most probable. Because the character of the downtrend has changed and exceeded the 9.2% of several previous drops in the bull market advance over the last year (currently 13.4% at 1056 low so far) more downside is highly likely to occur.

Scenario B
This morning the SPX cash market is sitting on a stronger (longer) channel line going back to 7/13/09 low, and draws a very good channel through the highs and lows. This is providing temporary support. If this holds, scenario A is not in play and all we have is another one month correction in an ongoing bull market. The market will tell us soon enough which one is in play.

Scenario C SPX going back to Feb. 8th, 2010 and bouncing off the 1056.74 mark. If dipping below this point scenario B could be the next resistance point.

 

[Bullitt]

Scenario D: A Government bailout just to have one.

 

[mayday]

Scenario D: A Government bailout just to have one.

Agreed Bullitt: I would not put it pass the administration.

 

[Silverbird]

More probable: Government funds to pay for the rest of the cleanup after BP's U.S. operation goes belly up.

 

[Birchtree]

My daughter just accepted a contract working for BP as a consultant. They better not go belly up.

 

[grandma]

My daughter just accepted a contract working for BP as a consultant. They better not go belly up.

reckon she could interest them in that straw/hay video clip we watched a few days ago?
At this point, I would think: TRY ANYthing!

-sometimes I think the more experience someone has, the tighter/stuffier their ears get to anything new -!

 

[JimmyJoe]

Ummm no. The hay thing is out. It's not a oil based solution. Kevin Costner has got something that looks like Rosy the robot. Uses oil to build it, maintain it, and fix the oil in the Gulf (however crappally it does the job is no matter.) So if she can get with Kevin and his subordinates, that would be great.

 

[Warrenlm]

Originally Posted by Birchtree
My daughter just accepted a contract working for BP as a consultant. They better not go belly up.

Seems little risk of that event. They're global and while we're a big customer, our citizens don't have effective boycots (still buy from CITGO) and the entire cleanup/compensation cost was said to be nine days profit.

 

[Uptrend]

Despite the rally, the market is not safe. Breadth is still pointing down. I'm out.

 

[Uptrend]

Yawn. Nothing New. System has a wait tag. F might turn into a buy again, but is nuetral at this time.


Here is what I expect. The SPX cash market over the last year advanced from 666 to 1220. Call this major wave A of a bull market. Now the market is cooling off with a wave B retracement to either the 38.2% or 50% fibonacci level. Doing the math gets to 1008 or 944. These levels are common bull market retracements.


Stand clear and look for these levels before dipping your toe into the pool. Or DCA in that area. At the outside the 61.8% retracement would turn down to 878. Time is an element here as well. IMO, 2 months from April 20 is a minimum. So, lets see what happens in the next 2 weeks.

 

[mayday]

Yawn. Nothing New. System has a wait tag. F might turn into a buy again, but is nuetral at this time.


Here is what I expect. The SPX cash market over the last year advanced from 666 to 1220. Call this major wave A of a bull market. Now the market is cooling off with a wave B retracement to either the 38.2% or 50% fibonacci level. Doing the math gets to 1008 or 944. These levels are common bull market retracements.


Stand clear and look for these levels before dipping your toe into the pool. Or DCA in that area. At the outside the 61.8% retracement would turn down to 878. Time is an element here as well. IMO, 2 months from April 20 is a minimum. So, lets see what happens in the next 2 weeks.

Very sound advice Uptrend.

 

[Birchtree]

"If the correlation is indeed still intact, then the big worry lies in what the Nikkei pattern has to say about this summer. It shows a steep decline, similar to the message it had about the trend for Nasdaq in late 2007 and 2008."

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/MCCLELLAN.html

 

[Uptrend]

Nothing has changed. Down is the watchword. See ya at the bottom for a buying opportunity. Still looking for SPX 945 - 1000 range.

 

[Uptrend]

The Path Down
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