Uptrend's Account Talk

[Nordic]

Excellent analysis.

Dollar pulling back from the Bollinger band is giving the USM a boost. This is too early IMO. They should have waited until the last hour of trading.

Interesting. Here's a two year view of where the dollar has been.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&t=&a=&w=&v=dmax

My question is, with the Euro now in trouble, doesn't that translate into further dollar strength, resulting in more pressure on the EFA (rising dollar hindering the I fund)?

 

[350zCommTech]

Interesting. Here's a two year view of where the dollar has been.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&t=&a=&w=&v=dmax

My question is, with the Euro now in trouble, doesn't that translate into further dollar strength, resulting in more pressure on the EFA (rising dollar hindering the I fund)?

Yes, but like anything, it will come out of oversold/overbought. The dollar is now overbought. The idea is to try to be in the I fund when the dollar falls from overbought. This might be just a short term trade at the moment as the PIIGS will continue to take down the Euro.

 

[Nordic]

Yes, but like anything, it will come out of oversold/overbought. The dollar is now overbought. The idea is to try to be in the I fund when the dollar falls from overbought. This might be just a short term trade at the moment as the PIIGS will continue to take down the Euro.

Indeed. Would be an easier call if we had a better handle on how far the Euro might sink. It is tempting to scoop up some I fund shares at these levels...vigilance.

 

[Uptrend]

The EUR/USD cross looks like it might find support in the 1.26 area or slightly below. This AM it is down, but trading near 1.269. Candle is a doji (indecision). The RSI and Stochastic is getting oversold, but the MACD can fall further.

The USD (US dollar) is making a new high at 84.81. There is a big resistance zone overhead, so consolidation to 83.15 is possible on a support area.

My SPX targets, based on fibonacci relationships to the last major low at SPX 1045 are: 1153, 1132, and 1111. If the world falls apart the target would be 1088. I am favoring the 1153 target at this time based on Elliot wave count. If the strong major wave from the 1045 low, 174 point advance to 1219 was really wave 1, then a 38.2% retracement is more probable; ie shallow vs deep, in part due to the strength of the prior advance.

The SPX 1153 could be reached on an intraday basis with a hammer and tail candle, so we can watch for that. I don't see it today.

TNX is under the 200 ema, but sitting on support. The 200 ema might be resistance, but it has shot by it 2x before in the last 8 months. Also the moving trio of MACD, RSI and Sto are all oversold together.

Put everything together, and it looks like a bounce coming to me; perhaps asia first?

 

[350zCommTech]

Put everything together, and it looks like a bounce coming to me; perhaps asia first?

Not sure about Japan. They might have a little bit more to go, but I can see China(down 4% last night) bouncing tonight followed by the Europeans in the morning.

I got my finger on the trigger....

 

[Uptrend]

I see so far today that the Russell is not giving up the 50 ema, as it is sitting right on it. EFA is basically sitting on support. I am wondering if a little bump up, larger fall down and then away we go is in the cards.

 

[350zCommTech]

I see so far today that the Russell is not giving up the 50 ema, as it is sitting right on it. EFA is basically sitting on support. I am wondering if a little bump up, larger fall down and then away we go is in the cards.

I was thinking the same thing. I'm trying to decide if I want to try and catch a 1-2 day bounce now or wait for an extreme oversold condition, playing for a bigger up move that may or may not come before the end of the month.

A quick in and out now would free me up for the rest of the month to hit the links.

 

[fedgolfer]

A quick in and out now would free me up for the rest of the month to hit the links.

Like Phil Mickelson says, hinge and hold Hit 'em well, 350! I played yesterday... 3 birdies, each followed by a bogey... wtf?! Humbling sport... my scorecard looked like the vix chart.

Regarding EFA, i've been eyeing the 49.94 for a while, think we could see a mini bump back to the ~52 area and then some possible large downside if the 9-month rounding top is a confirmed. Around $43.29 is my next buy.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EFA&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p31661111236

Here's the TA painting the most bearish case for me though, the weekly ichimoku on the VIX... if it closes in the red cloud, it implies a long term shift from bullish to bearish. But I'm thinking we get a reversal on the jobs #'s to keep the close below the red cloud tomorrow.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=W&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p08191552586

 

[Uptrend]

I am tempted, but will wait on the sidelines for better TA confirmation, and don't see any today.

 

[Minnow]

I was thinking the same thing. I'm trying to decide if I want to try and catch a 1-2 day bounce now or wait for an extreme oversold condition, playing for a bigger up move that may or may not come before the end of the month.

A quick in and out now would free me up for the rest of the month to hit the links.

Thinking the same as you guys... a green day or two looks to be coming soon.

But the bigger play might be later in the month. Who knows?

With a tiny Fib level at 1150SPX and another around 1124.. you might get some bounce tomorrow or monday should 1124 be brought into play (there's a tiny gap up from March 5 that might signal a play). The big Fib level is around 1113ish ... that might be the later in may play.

TNX is below the boll band ... but Z interprets that one better... but it looks to me like a quick in and out could materialize.

But, Z, you got that 5% cushion, and golf is funner anyways. Good luck all.

 

[350zCommTech]

Like Phil Mickelson says, hinge and hold Hit 'em well, 350! I played yesterday... 3 birdies, each followed by a bogey... wtf?! Humbling sport... my scorecard looked like the vix chart.

I haven't finished his DVD, but so far, hinge and hold didn't working for me. I figured it out after spending a lot of time on the chipping green. Maybe it was because I'm right handed?

 

[fedgolfer]

I haven't finished his DVD, but so far, hinge and hold didn't working for me. I figured it out after spending a lot of time on the chipping green. Maybe it was because I'm right handed?

Ha! One buddy I play with who's significantly better than me insists i'm playing the sport wrong-handed.

 

[350zCommTech]

Ha! One buddy I play with who's significantly better than me insists i'm playing the sport wrong-handed.

If it means lower scores, I'll switch in a heart beat.

 

[Minnow]

With a tiny Fib level at 1150SPX and another around 1124.. you might get some bounce tomorrow or monday should 1124 be brought into play (there's a tiny gap up from March 5 that might signal a play). The big Fib level is around 1113ish ... that might be the later in may play.

Of course, I could be wrong. :laugh::laugh::laugh:

 

[Uptrend]

Market scare caused by normal market crash where liquidity dries up; but blamed on citigroup mishap on eminis trade, to cover up PPP intervention? Any more theories out there? Who really knows?

BTW, I would not put a lot of confidence in that big candle stick yesterday with the long lower whisker (as a big hammer), as I have seen this before, particularily in the bond market, where the market puts out a feeler and then goes there in the coming days. Right now, the market is unstable, and it is anybodys guess which way the trend will develop, but there is a downward bias.

SPX has resistance at 1136 and large ristance in the 1146-1150 area. I see we are trading down sharply again this AM (currently 1113), so there is plenty of fear around.

None of my breadth indicators say buy. The Elliot wave most probable count shows either a 5-3-5 or 3-3-5 unfolding. For either, the market is probably within wave 3 of the first set. Another caution: from the last SPX major low at 1045 the market climbed to 1219. A 61.8% fibonacci retracement if the market was a bull, would put a stop at 1111. The market blew that out yesterday, so that concerns me a lot. This is not normal trading, and I realy don't buy the fat fingers theory. Let's see what happens today; from the bear cave.

 

[Uptrend]

See my post below for today. This site needs maintenance like the exchanges, because my post won't promote to the top.

 

[Uptrend]

If EFA can't get back up to the 49.30 ledge today, then I think it is going to the 43.29 low made last August. Currently trading around 48.85. The upper support looks lind of flimsy

 

[Uptrend]

The new bull type market has advanced from SPX 666 in March 09, to 1219 on 4/26/10. Now the market is in pullback mode. The fibonacci retracement levels are 23.6, 38.2, 50 and 61.8. In terms of numbers on the price chart they are: 1089, 1008, 943, and 878. This is kind of a roadmap. So far the surge from the 666 low of last year has acted like a bull market. We also know that bull markets normally do not have more than 20% pullbacks. Indeed several pullbacks prior to last week have been in the 9% range, and the retracement last week hit 12.6%. Is it over? Well, 1089 seems possible and is less than a 20% pullback, at 17.3%. And this fibonacci level is above the 2/05/10 low at 1044 and the 1066 level on the spike down on 5/6/10. A channel connecting these points goes through about 1071 in several weeks as shown on the chart. This is a little more than the fibonacci would suggest. One scenario is that the market could rally now and blast right through the 1136 to 1152 resistance area. If this happens there will probably be a backtest of the 1150 area. This is where I will buy for this month. However, if the markets gaps up there up to the resistance zone near 1150 and stalls, and falls down and retests the trendline, this is where I will buy. If the trendline is busted, we can assume the bear market is back, and I will not buy until I have a confirmed elliot wave that is up. Being patient here. Because the VIX has spiked up, big moves will push the market in both directions until the trend is decided. If you did not buy last Friday, you are too late for the probable gap and crap play tomorrow and possibly Tuesday. Don't get sucked in. There are no daily indicators that say buy, but I am watching carefully.

View attachment 9366

 

[sdouglas3]

The new bull type market has advanced from SPX 666 in March 09, to 1219 on 4/26/10. Now the market is in pullback mode. The fibonacci retracement levels are 23.6, 38.2, 50 and 61.8. In terms of numbers on the price chart they are: 1089, 1008, 943, and 878. This is kind of a roadmap. So far the surge from the 666 low of last year has acted like a bull market. We also know that bull markets normally do not have more than 20% pullbacks. Indeed several pullbacks prior to last week have been in the 9% range, and the retracement last week hit 12.6%. Is it over? Well, 1089 seems possible and is less than a 20% pullback, at 17.3%. And this fibonacci level is above the 2/05/10 low at 1044 and the 1066 level on the spike down on 5/6/10. A channel connecting these points goes through about 1071 in several weeks as shown on the chart. This is a little more than the fibonacci would suggest. One scenario is that the market could rally now and blast right through the 1136 to 1152 resistance area. If this happens there will probably be a backtest of the 1150 area. This is where I will buy for this month. However, if the markets gaps up there up to the resistance zone near 1150 and stalls, and falls down and retests the trendline, this is where I will buy. If the trendline is busted, we can assume the bear market is back, and I will not buy until I have a confirmed elliot wave that is up. Being patient here. Because the VIX has spiked up, big moves will push the market in both directions until the trend is decided. If you did not buy last Friday, you are too late for the probable gap and crap play tomorrow and possibly Tuesday. Don't get sucked in. There are no daily indicators that say buy, but I am watching carefully.

View attachment 9366

Uptrend,

If todays actions hold. Can you retrace the Fibs so we can see another look at were resistence might be?

Thanks,

Steve

 

[Uptrend]

Uptrend,

If todays actions hold. Can you retrace the Fibs so we can see another look at were resistence might be?

Thanks,

Steve

The fibonacci 23.6% level or 1220-666 = 554 *.236 = 130.7, and 1220-130.7=1089. The market has already been there.