Uptrend's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

I know I am at the bottom of the tracker. That's ok.

I'm with you :nuts: It's no big deal and when I do move UP -- there are so many new Goals to obtain. So I'll look at 300 for now.

For now, I am as snug as a rug, happy as a clam, and looking for the end of the rainbow.

I'm glad you are Uptrend !! That's the important thing.

Good to have ya back !!!

 

[Uptrend]

Must be a blow-off top coming. The next 10 days should be real upside. Tomorrow F reports and there is extreme call side buying today. C is going to report tomorrow and the gov reports there are going to unload 1.5 billion shares (Why would they tell everybody? What do they know, ie the expectations did not look too high so C will probably beat; but sales should be secret. Don't understand the strategy Neither do investors - C is down today). Consumer confidence reports tomorrow and is supposed to increase one point according to Bloomberg. Greece is out there, but it appears they will secure financing to make the May bond payment. Great Britian debt is out there, but we should learn how broke they are this summer.

More importantly the market breath indicators are still in buy mode. The I fund is in trouble as the US dollar continues to rise. I know there is no pullback and the train keeps rumbling along. Time to jump out of the bushes. So I am going to step in S and C today.

 

[JTH]

Must be a blow-off top coming. The next 10 days should be real upside. Tomorrow F reports and there is extreme call side buying today. C is going to report tomorrow and the gov reports there are going to unload 1.5 billion shares (Why would they tell everybody? What do they know, ie the expectations did not look too high so C will probably beat; but sales should be secret. Don't understand the strategy Neither do investors - C is down today). Consumer confidence reports tomorrow and is supposed to increase one point according to Bloomberg. Greece is out there, but it appears they will secure financing to make the May bond payment. Great Britian debt is out there, but we should learn how broke they are this summer.

More importantly the market breath indicators are still in buy mode. The I fund is in trouble as the US dollar continues to rise. I know there is no pullback and the train keeps rumbling along. Time to jump out of the bushes. So I am going to step in S and C today.

The Elliot Wave has not been good to me, nor have any other technical indicators, they are all broken, last time I saw they worked they were all pointed up...

 

[Steadygain]

So I am going to step in S and C today.

Hey Uptrend ~~ I am really glad to hear this !!!

Seriously -- I'm really not competing with anyone and the AT is simply for my own personal fun. The only thing that remotely matters is how much 'we' have in our own account when all is said and done.

But I thought about you over the weekend and the Strength the Markets have been displaying ~~ and I have to admit it bothered me thinking of YOU missing out.

 

[Uptrend]

The US dollar as tracked by futures DX shot up today and is leading stocks down. On the daily chart there is a topping tail candlestick, tha MACD histogram has a lower high and the stochastic is rolling over. The chart appears to be a descending triangle (bearish) or a wedge (break either way). On the weekly, the MACD histogram is declining, but still above the 0 line. Conclusion: don't know with a little bearish flavor.

As soon as the US dollar pulls back, this market will take off big time and we all need to mosy over to the wimpy I fund. Looking for clues. Lots of EU bailout talk help/not help blah blah blah. In the end seems like the default will be averted; but I don't know. The EFA (tracking the I fund) has over shot the 50 ema on the daily to the downside, but might try and bounce here as the RSI and stochastic are getting oversold. On the weekly the EFA is pointing down. So what to do: play the I fund bounce with my 50% in G or buy into the US market today with this half. Two days of red is about all it has been handing over. Decisions Decisions.

 

[Boghie]

As soon as the US dollar pulls back, this market will take off big time and we all need to mosy over to the wimpy I fund. Looking for clues. Lots of EU bailout talk help/not help blah blah blah. In the end seems like the default will be averted; but I don't know. The EFA (tracking the I fund) has over shot the 50 ema on the daily to the downside, but might try and bounce here as the RSI and stochastic are getting oversold. On the weekly the EFA is pointing down. So what to do: play the I fund bounce with my 50% in G or buy into the US market today with this half. Two days of red is about all it has been handing over. Decisions Decisions.

UpTrend,

The fetid stench of DEFAULT in the air.

Anyone think that the Eurozone can offer significant assistance to the PIGS when they have been busy stimulating their fine Socialist Democracies.

The 'I Fund' will be a falling knife for months - if not a year...

Our problem is that America most likely cannot act as a firewall either - anyone think 'The One' could push an emergency stimulus for the PIGS after the stench of our stimulus bill?

Black swans are in the air.

But, they are unpredictable beings. Will they be financial, militaristic, or social. Time will tell!!!

 

[Uptrend]

A temporary top may be in. Don't see any blow-off top now. No momentum.

A bearish engulfing candle has formed on the SPX weekly. This is the first occurence since the 666 lows last year! The market almost always goes down when this formation appears! The confirmation level is SPX 1181. Stop areas are either 1140 or 1085. Cycle timing suggests that one of these two levels will be hit within 3-4 weeks.

The EFA, Russell, and QQQQ appear to be rolling over as well

I am stepping aside from the market. Happy trading everyone.

 

[Uptrend]

TNX is falling so F fund is on a buy. It has been for several days. There is aways to the target yet and a double top has broken down.

 

[Uptrend]

My analysis suggests that the markets are now in a downtrend. The SPX has a bearish engulfing candle on the weekly (the first one in over a year), as does EFA. The Russell has not confirmed yet, but has a declining MACD histogram, so is as good as toast.

It appeas the SPX 1219 may be the top for now.

 

[Birchtree]

It's really only a headfake - keep moving forward.

 

[JamesE]

Couriosity question Uptrend, what is the YTD return on your system? Thanks

 

[Steadygain]

Uptrend, I was going to drop you a joint - cause I figure this is the closest I'm going to be for quite awhile.

But just noticed I'm with Kevin D again - and it's my turn.


So we'll drop ya the roach.

 

[Uptrend]

Couriosity question Uptrend, what is the YTD return on your system? Thanks

Since I was dealing with my brothers heart attack and rehab in March/April I did not have time, nor do any technical analysis for 2 months, so it was riding in limbo. Funny how a life event will rearrange priorities. The tracker does not reflect my actual position either, except for the bumbling 1% loss I took here last week. That was a dumb trade. As of May 1, bushwacker reflects my actual technical position, so I will track from here.

The overall breath indicators I watch all say sell sell sell. Of course TA could be wrong, buit I don't think so. The bearish engulfing candle on the weekly chart is very powerful. A series of lower lows and lower highs appears to be setting up. Oil, volcano, car bomb, greece bailout, GS crooks, unemployment, politics low trading season; lets see what happens!

 

[Uptrend]

Uptrend, I was going to drop you a joint - cause I figure this is the closest I'm going to be for quite awhile.

But just noticed I'm with Kevin D again - and it's my turn.


So we'll drop ya the roach.

Whatever I just had to see what it is like down here in the sewer with rats. I am going to kick back, and then make a run from last place. The last shall be first. Awaiting the world diaster. Threat level: gooey and black with a hint of dead birds and shrimp.

 

[KevinD]

Welcome to the root cellar...

 

[JTH]

Whatever I just had to see what it is like down here in the sewer with rats. I am going to kick back, and then make a run from last place. The last shall be first. Awaiting the world diaster. Threat level: gooey and black with a hint of dead birds and shrimp.

Welcome to the root cellar...

The root cellar, I like it! As for sewer rats, well...

 

[KevinD]

Root cellar - It's below the basement.

 

[Uptrend]

Watching the US dollar futures; has hit upper channel and now should move sideways to consolidate near 83.12 as a base. The I fund is below its 200 ema and there could be a strong bounce near 49.92; this is the February level and a double bottom. Right now it is at 51.34 This trade might materialize real soon.

SPX is below its 50 ema with a hanging man candle, so looks like more downside.

Russell (RUT) bounced off its 50 ema but did not fall through. I am interpreting the candle as a hanging man rather than a hammer at this time, due to momentum that is down.

For bonds, TNX is resting on its 200 ema. TNX has regularily fallen through in the past, and still looks like a downtrend (good for the F fund prices) to me.

 

[JTH]

Watching the US dollar futures; has hit upper channel and now should move sideways to consolidate near 83.12 as a base. The I fund is below its 200 ema and there could be a strong bounce near 49.92; this is the February level and a double bottom. Right now it is at 51.34 This trade might materialize real soon.

SPX is below its 50 ema with a hanging man candle, so looks like more downside.

Russell (RUT) bounced off its 50 ema but did not fall through. I am interpreting the candle as a hanging man rather than a hammer at this time, due to momentum that is down.

For bonds, TNX is resting on its 200 ema. TNX has regularily fallen through in the past, and still looks like a downtrend (good for the F fund prices) to me.

Great stuff, if your wrong on the I-Fund, don't worry, I'll be keeping you company on the tracker.

 

[350zCommTech]

Watching the US dollar futures; has hit upper channel and now should move sideways to consolidate near 83.12 as a base. The I fund is below its 200 ema and there could be a strong bounce near 49.92; this is the February level and a double bottom. Right now it is at 51.34 This trade might materialize real soon.

SPX is below its 50 ema with a hanging man candle, so looks like more downside.

Russell (RUT) bounced off its 50 ema but did not fall through. I am interpreting the candle as a hanging man rather than a hammer at this time, due to momentum that is down.

For bonds, TNX is resting on its 200 ema. TNX has regularily fallen through in the past, and still looks like a downtrend (good for the F fund prices) to me.

Excellent analysis.

Dollar pulling back from the Bollinger band is giving the USM a boost. This is too early IMO. They should have waited until the last hour of trading.