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Uptrend's Account Talk
- Thread starter Uptrend
- Start date
What a depressing article. Now what do we do???????
crws
Active member
still will have water & still will have air.
Maybe quality Humus will become a commodity!
Maybe quality Humus will become a commodity!
Uptrend
Well-known member
The market might have some choppy action and false starts. I expect a retest of the SPX 1011 area, before a run to backtest the underside of the broken trading channel near 1090 that goes back into last year. The 200 ema is in that area as well. Along the way the 1040 needs to be taken out, which could be a possible neckline of a H&S pattern. However, it does not look right to me, because the right side is lower than the left (1131 vs 1150). It should be the other way around with the right side even or slightly higher. Because 1040 was support on 3 tests it should offer significant resistance. So I think first hit and run away, come back another day.
WorkFE
Well-known member
Be mindful of the suckers play unless you are already allocated in equities. That said some green this week should not surprise anyone. Even the bears thought we should rebound some after last week.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Jobless claims came in only 11K better than expected; 454 vs 465. Big deal.
The charts are developing shooting stars this AM so the advance might stall. The 50 ema and 200 ema on SPX are within 4 points of crossing. The EFA made this bearish cross on 5/24, and is again reversing off the underside of the 50 ema today. The USD is on support. All this spells danger for the I fund. The steam should run out of tis relief rally soon. Trend indicators show hold on the sidelines.
The charts are developing shooting stars this AM so the advance might stall. The 50 ema and 200 ema on SPX are within 4 points of crossing. The EFA made this bearish cross on 5/24, and is again reversing off the underside of the 50 ema today. The USD is on support. All this spells danger for the I fund. The steam should run out of tis relief rally soon. Trend indicators show hold on the sidelines.
Uptrend
Well-known member
I have pondered over the charts tonight. The trend system is not a buy. The large cap is a little stronger, while the small cap is weaker. The US dollar looks ready to rise. EFA is banging into the 50 ema, but stalling. SPX volume has dropped off, after that short covering blast back on 7/7/10. Looks like negative divergence setting up to me on the daily SPX MACD histogram. Weekly is still up however. But not so for the Russell; it's flat showing weakness. Both are below the zero line showing a down bias.
Bonds have cooled a little the last few days, but could be bottoming; I am watching carefully. Bonds should be the tell.
BTW I checked the new TSP site tonight. Not bad. Looks nicer. Could not tell if it was any more functional however - seems about the same.
Bonds have cooled a little the last few days, but could be bottoming; I am watching carefully. Bonds should be the tell.
BTW I checked the new TSP site tonight. Not bad. Looks nicer. Could not tell if it was any more functional however - seems about the same.
Uptrend
Well-known member
I know the SS system (coolhand uses) went to a buy. My trend system has not. The market is now at a tipping point. Clear the SPX 1107 pivot and we go up; otherwise reverse down. SPX 50 ema is below the 200 ema, and for those that follow the summation indexes; they are below the zero line, which shows weakness. Other trend indicators are on the fence. The US dollar has not provided clear direction; looks like more fall in the short term. Bonds screaming today. Caution is the word of the day.
crws
Active member
caution maybe so, but watching the market mood I get the impression the world is ready to address the fear factor and go for what works.
The doldrums aren't the market's normal state of being.
The choice has been defined- Crash & Burn or Pick & Choose.
I'd wager pick & choose will prevail, there's only so much short side you can fabricate when the tide is on the way in.
Some deep metaphoric rational there to explain market psychology! :laugh:
The doldrums aren't the market's normal state of being.
The choice has been defined- Crash & Burn or Pick & Choose.
I'd wager pick & choose will prevail, there's only so much short side you can fabricate when the tide is on the way in.
Some deep metaphoric rational there to explain market psychology! :laugh:
Uptrend
Well-known member
A buy signal has been given on F today at the close on TSPTrend
A buy signal may also be given for S and C, if the market can close above 1100 -1107 area. So far that has not happened.
A hanging man candle has appeared on SPX today after a red doji yesterday. This spells trouble. However, the RSI is at a value of 66 which might keep the uptrend going. The trend indicators for C and S are trendless.
I have no idea how the bond market and equities could go up at the same time. This is rare. I suspect equities are about to fail. The US 10 year note, is under a long term trend line going back to 2003. This should be bearish for the market, or else will cause another short squeeze to keep the rally going.
The VIX has reversed off 23.12 solid support 3 trading days ago, and shows a little uptrend. There is a positive divergence that spells trouble for the market.
EFA (I fund) could be topping out, as the MACD shows a negative divergence. The USD has found temporary support.
A buy signal may also be given for S and C, if the market can close above 1100 -1107 area. So far that has not happened.
A hanging man candle has appeared on SPX today after a red doji yesterday. This spells trouble. However, the RSI is at a value of 66 which might keep the uptrend going. The trend indicators for C and S are trendless.
I have no idea how the bond market and equities could go up at the same time. This is rare. I suspect equities are about to fail. The US 10 year note, is under a long term trend line going back to 2003. This should be bearish for the market, or else will cause another short squeeze to keep the rally going.
The VIX has reversed off 23.12 solid support 3 trading days ago, and shows a little uptrend. There is a positive divergence that spells trouble for the market.
EFA (I fund) could be topping out, as the MACD shows a negative divergence. The USD has found temporary support.
Uptrend
Well-known member
The SPX 1058 pivot is being tested. First Friday at 1063, then Monday at 1061 and today at 1056.88 so far. The pivot (as are all pivots) is a 6-8 point zone where market swings have taken place in the past; hence a pivot. Normally with TA, three strikes and you are out, so the next hit should be money for the shorts. For upside to continue, the market needs to climb more than halfway up last Fridays large red candle to at least 1080 for a reversal. Right now the MACD and other momemtum indicators are pointing down. Still looking for the SPX 945 area, but also watching to see if the market gets too bearish first, thus causing another short squeeze. So far it is just cooling off as the tidbits of negative news keep streaming in with earnings misses.
On the money front Jeremy Grantham, chief investment strategist at Boston-based GMO, a money management firm says "to rapidly reduce deficits at this point is at least to flirt with a severe economic decline, he wrote. In fact, he adds, the imminent slowdown "looks downright frightening." He is talking about persistant deflation with high unemployment and manufacturing excess capacity, and US and foregin governments choice to reduce spending vs new stimulus. He favors large cap value stocks (Walmart, IBM, Microsoft) for long term holding going forward over bonds. Makes sense to me for a long term hold, except we don't do that here at TSPtalk.
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-bu...b-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=
On the money front Jeremy Grantham, chief investment strategist at Boston-based GMO, a money management firm says "to rapidly reduce deficits at this point is at least to flirt with a severe economic decline, he wrote. In fact, he adds, the imminent slowdown "looks downright frightening." He is talking about persistant deflation with high unemployment and manufacturing excess capacity, and US and foregin governments choice to reduce spending vs new stimulus. He favors large cap value stocks (Walmart, IBM, Microsoft) for long term holding going forward over bonds. Makes sense to me for a long term hold, except we don't do that here at TSPtalk.
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-bu...b-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=
Uptrend
Well-known member
Here is a TA Bull Case and Bear Case on the SPX chart:
View attachment 9749
First of all, if you step back and look at this chart at arms length you see a green uptrending channel, and a purple or magenta downtrending channel. You also notice that the market is currently just above the upper boundary of the purple channel. You could say it is in nomads land and can't make up it's mind which channel to follow; the green one up, or the purple one down.
The second thing you see is a bullish falling wedge. The top pale orange line is marked, and the bottom line is the top purple channel line. As you can see, if the bulls are going to win; the breakout to the upside needs to come real soon.
The thrid thing you see is a descending triangle. The base of the triange is the marked pale orange line which is at 1039. The descending side is the top pale orange line, which is the same line used for the bullish falling wedge. You can also see that the top of the purple channel is converging with the base of the descending triangle; so a decision will be made soon.
I findi it interesting that the market has tried to stay within the indecision zone between the ascending green channel and the descending purple channel. This can't last much longer. Also note, most of the advances have been turned away by the 200 ema.
View attachment 9749
First of all, if you step back and look at this chart at arms length you see a green uptrending channel, and a purple or magenta downtrending channel. You also notice that the market is currently just above the upper boundary of the purple channel. You could say it is in nomads land and can't make up it's mind which channel to follow; the green one up, or the purple one down.
The second thing you see is a bullish falling wedge. The top pale orange line is marked, and the bottom line is the top purple channel line. As you can see, if the bulls are going to win; the breakout to the upside needs to come real soon.
The thrid thing you see is a descending triangle. The base of the triange is the marked pale orange line which is at 1039. The descending side is the top pale orange line, which is the same line used for the bullish falling wedge. You can also see that the top of the purple channel is converging with the base of the descending triangle; so a decision will be made soon.
I findi it interesting that the market has tried to stay within the indecision zone between the ascending green channel and the descending purple channel. This can't last much longer. Also note, most of the advances have been turned away by the 200 ema.
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