Uptrend's Account Talk

[JTH]

Great job Uptrend, I'm glad to see you holding #1, you got it dialed in, now if you could just spot me 444 slots...

 

[Uptrend]

Great job Uptrend, I'm glad to see you holding #1, you got it dialed in, now if you could just spot me 444 slots...

HA HA I am lining up 7777 for you right now.

The volatility the last few weeks has been amazing. It either works with you or crashes against you. The oversold bounce appears to have pretty much run it's course. Today looked like a surprise short squeeze. The 200 SMA on the SPX was overcome in seven trading days, so the downtrend may be in jeopardy. But I think it is too early to make a call. There are concerning strength issues and sector relationship issues in the market that are weak or in downtrends. The money flow really isn't that great either, as a lot of 'smart" money has been leaving the table (selling) in this bounce (particularly Monday). My Uptrend trend system remains on "buy" for C and S. However, the highest chances of a trend failure are early in a trend.

Concerning IFT's and wave patterns, SPX cleared the 1930 area today, so the 1955 area is next, unless the market falls right back down below 1930 Wednesday. Since we are nearing the end of the month and I expect a minor wave retracement either now or when 1955 is attained, I may exit the market in the next day or two. Even though the Uptrend trend system is staying in (it is calculated after the close of each trading day and also will not sell unless the overall trend is violated) I may lock in gains. If the market extends towards 1955, that should occur by about this Friday/Monday and then retrace next week. So, if we have a weak open tomorrow, as they say on Shark Tank, "I'm Out", otherwise it is a day to day decision. Based on this scenario (minor high by Friday/Monday, if it were to play out this way), the next minor low would come near the turn of the month and then up to the 1970-80 area by mid-November.

I will be traveling until next Monday, so will not be posting much in the interim, but will post any IFT change.

 

[Uptrend]

Checking in to G today. It has been a fun run. Still a little ways from SPX 1955, but a topping candle could put it there by tomorrow. Resting till November.

 

[Minnow]

Been a long time since I posted on your thread, bud. Just know that I always get nervous doing the opposite of what the frontrunner is doing.

Congrats on your trading so far this year!!!

 

[Uptrend]

The buy on my Uptrend system posted on 10/17/14 for C and S is still in force. Too bad I did not follow it. One reason I tend to deviate somewhat is because I try and minimize market exposure in terms of # of days in the market. The more market exposure the more risk involved. Actually I would like to see a contest where the greatest gain in TSP funds in the minimum # of days in the market is tracked.

Markets nowadays are rigged. The market manipulators are smart and push it around with their robotic computer programs. The riggers are pushing the gold price into the dirt, but my observations indicate that they are now secretly accumulating the miners. For example, on Friday the institutions bought 255.67 millions of GDX in block trades with 32:1 up/down volume. They have also being buying NEM, ABX and FCX for awhile. Dollar cost averaging I suppose. Or they could be buying options or using inverse EFT's as a hedge. My impression is that they are playing a leap frog game down and keeping their stock holdings market priced without losing money with some of the afore mentioned tactics, because nobody really knows where the gold bottom is located. I am watching carefully, because it will be located where we start to see a colossal short squeeze. All the money printing will end with inflation sooner or later. Further, greater employment will lead to inflationary pressures and this is good news for gold. The BOJ QE easing last week should have spiked the price of gold, but instead it fell. This is weird and smells of market manipulation. Anyhow, don't get me going on market rigging, as I see it everyday and can identify it in the charts and some of the individual stock swings that have nothing to do with company fundamentals, earnings or the like.

A possible market turning point is Monday, Nov 3 (now doubtful) , or the recent uptrend blast could extend for another 1.5-2 weeks into mid-November. The trend indicators say it is still up. My sentiment indicator says the market is getting bullish, but is not yet bullish enough for a reversal.

 

[jkenjohnson]

The buy on my Uptrend system posted on 10/17/14 for C and S is still in force. Too bad I did not follow it. One reason I tend to deviate somewhat is because I try and minimize market exposure in terms of # of days in the market. The more market exposure the more risk involved. Actually I would like to see a contest where the greatest gain in TSP funds in the minimum # of days in the market is tracked.

Markets nowadays are rigged. The market manipulators are smart and push it around with their robotic computer programs. The riggers are pushing the gold price into the dirt, but my observations indicate that they are now secretly accumulating the miners. For example, on Friday the institutions bought 255.67 millions of GDX in block trades with 32:1 up/down volume. They have also being buying NEM, ABX and FCX for awhile. Dollar cost averaging I suppose. Or they could be buying options or using inverse EFT's as a hedge. My impression is that they are playing a leap frog game down and keeping their stock holdings market priced without losing money with some of the afore mentioned tactics, because nobody really knows where the gold bottom is located. I am watching carefully, because it will be located where we start to see a colossal short squeeze. All the money printing will end with inflation sooner or later. Further, greater employment will lead to inflationary pressures and this is good news for gold. The BOJ QE easing last week should have spiked the price of gold, but instead it fell. This is weird and smells of market manipulation. Anyhow, don't get me going on market rigging, as I see it everyday and can identify it in the charts and some of the individual stock swings that have nothing to do with company fundamentals, earnings or the like.

A possible market turning point is Monday, Nov 3 (now doubtful) , or the recent uptrend blast could extend for another 1.5-2 weeks into mid-November. The trend indicators say it is still up. My sentiment indicator says the market is getting bullish, but is not yet bullish enough for a reversal.

Curious. Are waiting for a pullback for re-entry? Thanks in advance.

 

[airlift]

Uptend,

Congratulations! You were spot on by calling a rally through Nov. 3. We are now looking for the second possibility you mentioned a couple of weeks ago -- that is, a longer rally through Mid-November. Can you please define further, why you think that today it is doubtful as a turning point for the market? Is it because the trend indicators are still up, and that the sentiment indicator shows the market is getting bullish, but is not yet bullish enough for a reversal?. Perhaps negative the cash futures are looking only for a very temporary downside to shake off the weak bulls, before continuing the rally?

 

[Uptrend]

Uptend,

Congratulations! You were spot on by calling a rally through Nov. 3. We are now looking for the second possibility you mentioned a couple of weeks ago -- that is, a longer rally through Mid-November. Can you please define further, why you think that today it is doubtful as a turning point for the market? Is it because the trend indicators are still up, and that the sentiment indicator shows the market is getting bullish, but is not yet bullish enough for a reversal?. Perhaps negative the cash futures are looking only for a very temporary downside to shake off the weak bulls, before continuing the rally?

My trend system says that there is too much strength and the probability is for an advance. Also the US dollar is too overbought in the short term and there is better risk/reward now for the I fund. Some EFA buying going on this AM. I may jump in over there. Watching. There is a possible 11% gain on EFA up to the BB. Buy fear?

 

[Uptrend]

Curious. Are waiting for a pullback for re-entry? Thanks in advance.

I am on the fence. Bonds are no place to be right now. The US markets still have strength. The VIX has sold off, but could drift lower. I really like the EFA chart right now and think that might be the place to be this week. Debating.......

 

[blueroadster]

My trend system says that there is too much strength and the probability is for an advance. Also the US dollar is too overbought in the short term and there is better risk/reward now for the I fund. Some EFA buying going on this AM. I may jump in over there. Watching. There is a possible 11% gain on EFA up to the BB. Buy fear?

Uptrend...Would you mind sharing your thoughts on the file I use to track EFA (PDF images are more clear if the file is saved and then opened)? I have the BB set to (20,2.0) and the EFA price went down a little this morning after hitting the upper BB last Friday. Today's price action seems to be attempting to fill last Friday's open gap before resuming upwards.

 

[nasa1974]

I am on the fence. Bonds are no place to be right now. The US markets still have strength. The VIX has sold off, but could drift lower. I really like the EFA chart right now and think that might be the place to be this week. Debating.......

My wifes financial advisor talked about the International Market and how it is getting ready for a decent gain since it has lagged behind the American market for a few years. I have seen an article or two about it as well. It could be an opportunity is coming soon.

 

[Uptrend]

Dived into I The BB I was talking about is on the weekly chart.

 

[jpcavin]

I thought if it touched the upper BB it was a sell signal? You guys don't make learning easy. :nuts:

 

[blueroadster]

I was using daily values for the BB whereas Uptrend was using weekly values for the BB.

 

[jpcavin]

Ugh. Now I'm really confused. When and why to use daily vs weekly values and vice versa.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I thought if it touched the upper BB it was a sell signal? You guys don't make learning easy. :nuts:

Hi, Just because the upper band gets touched with price action does not necessarily equate to a sell signal. Prices can hit it and bounce along it coming off and then back on it for a time. It can do that on the upper band and it can do that on the bottom band ...just as we saw the past few weeks as DWCPF and SPX were bottoming. I like to watch the BBs to see them contract tightly and then as they start to bow out (upper going up and lower going down) like a bell, this just means that something explosive is about to happen. You have to watch a few days to see if price starts to move upward or downward. That is typically a good entry point once you know which direction price is heading. Of course, you can see it head up ward a few days and then go in the opposite direction downward. Look at a one year daily chart to see that very clearly.

As for a weekly versus daily chart, a weekly gives you a good idea of where we are at (uptrend or downtrend) a little better than the daily as the daily has lots of volatility from day to day. I use both daily and weekly charts. I also like to use MACD because when it is positive the market is moving up. Once you see it start to get taper to a smaller positive, that typically indicates the uptrend is coming to an end. the SLOW Stochastic gives some indication of possible direction.. quicker than MACD but again, I typically like MACD. I exited on Friday because even though the prices were going high, and MACD was still positive, it looked to me like it was running its course and with elections on Tuesday and other announcements this week, I felt it was less risky to get out and just watch what happens before going back in. I think there maybe a few good days this week but also think there could be some pull back again.. if not this week then perhaps next week. Timing market is hard and there are so many factors that can spook the market.

 

[jpcavin]

Hi, Just because the upper band gets touched with price action does not necessarily equate to a sell signal. Prices can hit it and bounce along it coming off and then back on it for a time. It can do that on the upper band and it can do that on the bottom band ...just as we saw the past few weeks as DWCPF and SPX were bottoming. I like to watch the BBs to see them contract tightly and then as they start to bow out (upper going up and lower going down) like a bell, this just means that something explosive is about to happen. You have to watch a few days to see if price starts to move upward or downward. That is typically a good entry point once you know which direction price is heading. Of course, you can see it head up ward a few days and then go in the opposite direction downward. Look at a one year daily chart to see that very clearly.

As for a weekly versus daily chart, a weekly gives you a good idea of where we are at (uptrend or downtrend) a little better than the daily as the daily has lots of volatility from day to day. I use both daily and weekly charts. I also like to use MACD because when it is positive the market is moving up. Once you see it start to get taper to a smaller positive, that typically indicates the uptrend is coming to an end. the SLOW Stochastic gives some indication of possible direction.. quicker than MACD but again, I typically like MACD. I exited on Friday because even though the prices were going high, and MACD was still positive, it looked to me like it was running its course and with elections on Tuesday and other announcements this week, I felt it was less risky to get out and just watch what happens before going back in. I think there maybe a few good days this week but also think there could be some pull back again.. if not this week then perhaps next week. Timing it is not easy.

Thank you DBA

 

[Uptrend]

Thanks to DBA for the BB analysis! I use all timeframes to trade and compare between them. BB compression or expansion are very important as they can hint at the velocity of an upcoming move. For example, if you look at the weekly BB for UUP, there was compression of the bands in June and then, bam the US dollar took off as BB expansion progressed. However, this move is getting mature now, and I think the US dollar needs a little rest. I see negative divergences on all timeframes for UUP.

I am going to reiterate that IMO the EFA chart is bullish and with the expected pullback in the US dollar is a BUY There is more room to run here than SPX, EMW and besides your account would get a dollar differential boast. Be careful, nothing is guaranteed in trading.

 

[Longstreet]

I know I'm missing something here and seem completely ignorant, but if the Eurpean markets are up big today (which they are) and those markets make up a large amount of the I fund allocation (which I'm assuming they would.......hence "International Fund"), why is the I fund currently negative at the start this morning?

 

[ILoveTDs]

Exchange rate