Uptrend's Account Talk

[Uptrend]

Strange market behavior the last few days, but I attribute most of it to options behavior. We might have a tradable bottom either today or tomorrow, and if the US dollar keeps falling this will support oil. The EW are difficult to decipher on SPX, but as long as 1972.56 stays intact the bull lives. So I would not be concerned if your 2015 TSP earnings look like mine at -0.xxx something. Based on some of my other indicators, this does not look like a downtrend. Sentiment has turned negative, which also should support stocks.

 

[Uptrend]

The first support area on SPX is approaching near the 1973-1956 area and there should be a pretty good bounce. The VIX is below a major resistance line going back to 2008 and will probably run away from it on its first try, rather than breaking out as shown on the monthly chart below. Also note that the VIX down volume is greater than the up volume for the month, suggesting selling. The 5 period RSI on the VIX is now overbought, but not overly so. My sentiment indicator is nearing a turn, and there is a strong up/down volume divergence on the NYSE and a very weak one on the NASDAQ. I expect the US dollar to turn down within the month or so, and this will support oil and commodities and may support gold and mining stocks.

Just a small voice from the middle of the tracker pack at -2.40% Felt like I woke up and got clobbered. Oh well, I am putting on my boxing gloves.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

I hope the USD takes a breather and it helps miners... the one I am in is getting (or continues to get) clobbered

 

[Uptrend]

Getting an "early" buy signal today. My Uptrend system has not flipped green yet, but expect it to....soon. The I fund is looking strong

 

[WorkFE]

The I fund is looking strong

Figures, that's the one I omitted this go round:embarrest:

 

[pmaloney]

The I fund has been doing well consistently. Time to get some I fund?

 

[Uptrend]

The I fund has been doing well consistently. Time to get some I fund?

Right on!! I have to admit I was asleep at the wheel for the last few weeks while the EFA was secretly changing. It was previously a descending triangle, but now looks as if it wants to change it's ways and go test the upper sloping line. What I like about this weekly EFA chart below is that there is very good support under it. And there has already been a number of hits on the upper line, so now would be the time to shine. Grabbed 40% I today, and if the ECB QE goes as planned, we should see a breakout. Notice the double bottom, RSI and MACD histogram near neutral but trending up and a rising sto. All the ingredients for a bull. The lower BB is turning up also, but the upper BB needs to go sideways now as it is still descending. I may go 100% I if the breakout occurs on this chart. Of course anything is possible including one more test of the lower sloping line so there is no such thing as being left out (but there is such a thing as being burned). Tomorrow is always another trading opportunity.

My uptrend system (which is normally very reliable) has not flipped green yet. My sentiment indicator is lined up for upside however.

 

[Uptrend]

My Uptrend system is still in "buy and hold" mode, but negative divergences are appearing. Also, my sentiment system is nearing an extreme, where a sudden drop could occur, based on past similarities. So today, Monday February 23, I will watch the open, but probably jump on the bonds (F) boat. AGG is oversold and looking like a trend change. Started the new year at the very bottom of the tracker (due to one flub), but now nearing the 500 mark. Decisions, decisions on the number of stocks I am holding out there. Trying to figure out which way oil is going (with everyone else), but supply/demand says it should be down. IMO we have not seen the bottom, but it depends on how fast some of the American rigs shut down. Not willing to gamble to short oil, but am long on some major airlines as an indirect short. Gold looks primed for a pop, but am only watching. We may be arriving at a turning point for a down cycle for several weeks. Momentum is king.

 

[Uptrend]

I am still in the market and my uptrend system shows no signs of getting out of buy and hold status. My sentiment indicator is very bullish but can get even more extreme. I am watching the US dollar with interest. It has been range bound and consolidating after a 7 month bullish run-up and could be getting a little tired, despite what you might be hearing out there in talking head land. If the USD falls the I fund % should improve further. Interesting that C and I were the leaders today, while S was neutral. If the USD falls in the coming days (as I expect) the gold stocks and commodities will take off and we shall have $70 - $80 oil. PIP for the year is 2.95% at #566.The market is entering the risk zone, so making buy/sell decisions with the help of my models and watching the next day open.

 

[Frixxxx]

Welcome back, great post.

 

[Uptrend]

Monday , March 2 should be a positive day with a possible strong move up. A lot of up volume flowed into the markets in the last few minutes on Friday February, 27. Look for the large cap to lead. Sentiment has cooled a bit from strongly bullish and now the wall of worry commences.

My Uptrend system continues in "buy and hold" status. As I have mentioned previously, this system is configured to make less than 10-12 moves in a year and has a proven record in back testing. Among other things, the model uses market breadth, relationships between sectors, momentum, chart technicals, statistics and time. It is a non-stop model. Currently sentiment is handled separately in another non-stop model, but is used as reinforcing evidence for the Uptrend model. The Uptrend model can buy and sell twice in a month or hold for months, depending upon market activity (as is the case now).

The monthly chart of UUP (bullish US dollar) closed for February with what could be interpreted as a hammer candlestick. After reviewing the US dollar charts, I am now thinking the USD could advance or top for another 1-3 months. This would allow time for oil to make a lower low and perhaps the final low. IMO, the USD ambiguity in direction of late, partly has to do with Yellen's unclear statements about the timing of a FED rate hike. See if this is any clearer to you: After Yellen

 

[Uptrend]

My uptrend system "sold" on the close yesterday. Heading to F/G. Today looks like a back-test of broken support.

 

[Khotso]

My uptrend system "sold" on the close yesterday. Heading to F/G. Today looks like a back-test of broken support.

Hey, thanks much for the advance notice. I'm with you!

 

[justjeff]

My uptrend system "sold" on the close yesterday. Heading to F/G. Today looks like a back-test of broken support.

I'll add another thanks, it seems like the market is running out of steam.

 

[soon2retire]

Time will tell, I wonder how much or if the oil patch shutdown is going to affect the numbers tomorrow...

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

My uptrend system "sold" on the close yesterday. Heading to F/G. Today looks like a back-test of broken support.

Hi Uptrend,
I bailed today and went all G. Last Thursday, I moved almost entirely out of equities leaving 20% in equities, and moved 30% to G and mistakenly 50% to F.

I say mistakenly because I did not "see" that the weekly I am using, Slow Stochastic, was already going below signal line for F fund; otherwise I would have bee 80%G as of last Thursday. Is there a particular indicator that would sway someone to move to F fund today instead of G???

I've never trusted F fund much because as of this past year it moves up with equities and other times it moves inversely, as I understand it should. So not really certain what is driving it. Everyone seems to talk a lot about the strength of the dollar, and I believe it will continue to strengthen, so I would think bond yields would continue to go up and bond values would go down (not good for F fund). Hope I am understanding this correctly. If not, I would appreciate any information you or others can offer.

Thanks, DBAnnie

 

[Uptrend]

Hi Uptrend,

I've never trusted F fund much because as of this past year it moves up with equities and other times it moves inversely, as I understand it should. So not really certain what is driving it. Everyone seems to talk a lot about the strength of the dollar, and I believe it will continue to strengthen, so I would think bond yields would continue to go up and bond values would go down (not good for F fund). Hope I am understanding this correctly. If not, I would appreciate any information you or others can offer.

Thanks, DBAnnie

Hi DBAnnie: I agree that the movement of bonds is at times mysterious. I put up the AGG on the weekly chart below to aid this conversation.



The vertical blue line shows that the last time the AGG was really oversold was back in July, 2014 and has been rising ever since. Notice that the RSI below the chart in the red box has not really gone much below 50, so this is strength. What is causing it? Bonds are related to stocks, commodities and the US dollar, although not directly. To the right of the vertical blue line in the panels above the AGG chart we see SPX rising with AGG, the UUP (bullish USD) rising with AGG and Copper (surrogate for the metals or commodities) falling or inverse. From this chart we see an inverse relationship of bonds with commodities, an inverse relationship of commodities with the USD and a positive relationship of SPX with AGG. So right now, more than anything else, the run-away USD is pushing commodities to real low levels, which in turn is pushing up bond prices. As well, the positive correlation of SPX with bonds hints at inflation. There is way more to this intermarket analysis and I defer to John Murphy of Stockcharts for a technical discussion found here: Intermarket Analysis [ChartSchool]

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi DBAnnie: I agree that the movement of bonds is at times mysterious. I put up the AGG on the weekly chart below to aid this conversation.

View attachment 32740

The vertical blue line shows that the last time the AGG was really oversold was back in July, 2014 and has been rising ever since. Notice that the RSI below the chart in the red box has not really gone much below 50, so this is strength. What is causing it? Bonds are related to stocks, commodities and the US dollar, although not directly. To the right of the vertical blue line in the panels above the AGG chart we see SPX rising with AGG, the UUP (bullish USD) rising with AGG and Copper (surrogate for the metals or commodities) falling or inverse. From this chart we see an inverse relationship of bonds with commodities, an inverse relationship of commodities with the USD and a positive relationship of SPX with AGG. So right now, more than anything else, the run-away USD is pushing commodities to real low levels, which in turn is pushing up bond prices. As well, the positive correlation of SPX with bonds hints at inflation. There is way more to this intermarket analysis and I defer to John Murphy of Stockcharts for a technical discussion found here: Intermarket Analysis [ChartSchool]

Wow! Great explanation and charts! I'll be digesting and studying this all weekend and I'm sure others will too. Will use link too. Thank you for the help! DBAnnie

 

[jpcavin]

Hi DBAnnie: I agree that the movement of bonds is at times mysterious. I put up the AGG on the weekly chart below to aid this conversation.

View attachment 32740

The vertical blue line shows that the last time the AGG was really oversold was back in July, 2014 and has been rising ever since. Notice that the RSI below the chart in the red box has not really gone much below 50, so this is strength. What is causing it? Bonds are related to stocks, commodities and the US dollar, although not directly. To the right of the vertical blue line in the panels above the AGG chart we see SPX rising with AGG, the UUP (bullish USD) rising with AGG and Copper (surrogate for the metals or commodities) falling or inverse. From this chart we see an inverse relationship of bonds with commodities, an inverse relationship of commodities with the USD and a positive relationship of SPX with AGG. So right now, more than anything else, the run-away USD is pushing commodities to real low levels, which in turn is pushing up bond prices. As well, the positive correlation of SPX with bonds hints at inflation. There is way more to this intermarket analysis and I defer to John Murphy of Stockcharts for a technical discussion found here: Intermarket Analysis [ChartSchool]

Thank you for all the unselfish time and effort you put forth to help us gain a better understanding. Much appreciated.

 

[Uptrend]

Here is the SPX monthly chart, I have shown in the past. This chart suggests that there is more upside to come, as the upper BB has not been hit yet. However, the RSI has weakened a bit as well as the stochastic. If the RSI can stay above about 65 and the stochastic above 80, the bull market will continue. To touch the upper BB, the SPX could make a run to about 2200. Keep in mind we are in the late stages of a bull and any huge monthly rally should be sold IMO. This downtrend should bottom either here or just below, near 2020-2035. The unusual US dollar rally cannot last indefinitely, and commodities will get a bid somewhere. I am accumulating Vale, X, FCX and AA at these sale prices.