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Uptrend's Account Talk
- Thread starter Uptrend
- Start date
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
Yes Uptrend... please do. I have a few thoughts on this market. Been thinking about it alot lately since the exit last Friday.
The BBs should start to consolidate. Then time to get back in, but it looks like it will go up a bit and down over the next week or so, and rise to a slightly new level before the Bollinger Bands consolidate. Buy and holders will likely come out ahead slightly more than the levels we are at today—given all the downside that recently occurred, lets hope so. But I think it is too risky/early to enter now, so I will wait for the next contraction and to look for market direction to catch the next wave up.
Sometimes people get the wrong idea about the market. But its moves are definitely not intentional—not mean-spirited. That might sound like a weird way of putting it---but it is moved by so many outside factors that we are unaware of, all bombarding at one time and so it looks sharp or out of line, but it is not. Over time I think it gets clearer---easier to understand. But there is definitely a lot of external jibberish, some definitely unreliable and not true and sometimes we are caught up relying on that false information. See it on FOX NEWS all the time..one person thinks this another has a totally different opinion. No one has the crystal ball or truly knows everything that has occurred ---if we did we might all be millionaires and some (BT) are. But that is the goal!!
I’ve now been studying the market for more than a year now, and it seems I understand it better, but I'm definitely not an expert---definitely do not know everything that has rightly or wrongly affected the overall market "thinking". In the end, we live with the consequences and hope we do not enter or exit the market on the wrong day. As I move forward, I will continue looking at basic indicators, economic, global news, MACD, Bollinger Bands and those all important support and resistance lines.
I like to read about indicators at Investopedia.com —lots of great information. The folks on this website who offer their opinions and share their knowledge and provide information are invaluable.---Thanks for taking the time to share as I know I have learned a lot at this site. Let’s make sure to catch that new wave up. Uptrend you are one I definitely like to listen to... keep up the great work!
Best wishes to all on your investing. Just gotta hope for the best! Bye for now---DBAnnie
Uptrend
Well-known member
Here I present a 20 year monthly chart of SPX:
Topping patterns that we see in 2000 and 2008 take time -up to a year. Notice that the market rocks back and forth at the top, because the leaders pump, sell, pump sell. The leaders need time to unwind. Notice also they push the market right up into the BB on their pumps. But that is not happening now. This chart shows that the market does not fall apart unless the stochastic falls below 80 and 70 for the RSI. Negative divergences developed on the stochastic before the fall in 2000 and 2008, but we don't see it now. We do have a negative divergence on the MACD histogram however, but it is still above the 0 line (That could reverse and go back up if strength returns).
I have not analyzed the Wilshire 4500 lately, but will do so sometime this week. The SPX chart above is the general roadmap at a distance. Here are my other observations. Based on cycles the markets could go sideways to a little down for 1-2 weeks, then up. The US dollar should reverse this week and gold should start to climb along with commodities. This is temporary however, but it is not out of the question to rally through February and back up to $1400 (Most traders are not expecting this - but that is what markets do -fool the majority). If gold can climb convincingly above $1180 this week and stay up there for at least 3 sessions it is off to the races. I am still looking for $900-$1000 gold at the bottom however, later in 2015. The $DAX and $FTSE and EFA weekly still look bullish to me. Perhaps the expected European and announced Japanese QE will fuel recovery expectations? Anyway the charts are still hinting at an advance. I am not real sure of all the factors why the US dollar may fall, but it was weakening for the last several sessions and it is at resistance.
Topping patterns that we see in 2000 and 2008 take time -up to a year. Notice that the market rocks back and forth at the top, because the leaders pump, sell, pump sell. The leaders need time to unwind. Notice also they push the market right up into the BB on their pumps. But that is not happening now. This chart shows that the market does not fall apart unless the stochastic falls below 80 and 70 for the RSI. Negative divergences developed on the stochastic before the fall in 2000 and 2008, but we don't see it now. We do have a negative divergence on the MACD histogram however, but it is still above the 0 line (That could reverse and go back up if strength returns).
I have not analyzed the Wilshire 4500 lately, but will do so sometime this week. The SPX chart above is the general roadmap at a distance. Here are my other observations. Based on cycles the markets could go sideways to a little down for 1-2 weeks, then up. The US dollar should reverse this week and gold should start to climb along with commodities. This is temporary however, but it is not out of the question to rally through February and back up to $1400 (Most traders are not expecting this - but that is what markets do -fool the majority). If gold can climb convincingly above $1180 this week and stay up there for at least 3 sessions it is off to the races. I am still looking for $900-$1000 gold at the bottom however, later in 2015. The $DAX and $FTSE and EFA weekly still look bullish to me. Perhaps the expected European and announced Japanese QE will fuel recovery expectations? Anyway the charts are still hinting at an advance. I am not real sure of all the factors why the US dollar may fall, but it was weakening for the last several sessions and it is at resistance.
Uptrend
Well-known member
The market has been fluctuating during OX while some of the internals are quietly deteriorating. Don't know what to make of it really. However, I am still looking for the next 2 to 2.5 weeks to be down. The US dollar and gold are not showing direction at the moment. Oil looks to be starting a relief rally. A tough environment to trade at the moment. As a momentum trader of stocks, I welcome volatility so I hope some elite force starts to rock the market. Holding cash and ready to plop down on VXX or XIV, but I want some action! These trades are so good, if you plan entries and exits right, there is little need to look for other trades. Just trade on fear and greed and world turmoil -what could be better than that? The TSP funds are difficult to trade because of light volatility and then the TSP boards further restrictions on trades make it almost impossible to make the right moves. Like going out for a few days to maneuver around a drop and then coming back. At least there is something to look forward to- at age 59.5 you can simply get out and roll to a discount trading house. But there is a caution - little volatility in TSP funds may have been your friend because, you have more opportunity to lose your money faster, particularly if you don't understand TA and throw your funds into stocks willy nilly. The trading elite are smart, and have all the tools to kill the retail investor. To survive you need to outsmart the fox. One way to do this is through discipline. For example I NEVER play earnings. Why? Because it is like gambling -the elite can damage the stock by missing eps by 0.01 or any such silly nonsense. Their whole game plan on a good stock is to scare the retail investor so they can buy more shares. Better to get out and if it goes up 20%, oh well, look for another opportunity and if it goes down by 20% - you just spared yourself a lot of pain.
Birchtree
Well-known member
I've found that if you develope a portfolio comsisting of dividend growth stocks and reinvesting the dividend righ back into the same stocks until you need the income, you will set yourself up for a more secure financial future. Today will rock my socks. I allow my capital gains to take care of themselves until I need them later.
Uptrend
Well-known member
It appears that this bull market refuses to quit. My uptrend system is indicating a "buy" for C and S based on the close Wednesday 12/3. New uptrends are vulnerable for the first few trading days. There is little indication the US dollar bull run is going to top anytime soon when looking at the weekly charts. However, we did get a northern shooting star on the UUP daily chart today. And we have negative divergences and a BB constriction. If it holds, and the US dollar falls, we could see a kickstart in energy and commodities that could get a Christmas rally going. Also gold would benefit. The weekly EFA chart for the I fund is getting interesting. If the US dollar takes a rest, we will have a I fund buy. After seeing the open Wednesday, I will decide, whether to follow my system. My sentiment reading is still to positive (which is negative). However, I see a lot of negative stuff on the commonly read financial news sites, so that is a plus. When no one is looking, why then...
jpcavin
Well-known member
Uptrend
Well-known member
2014 has been tricky to trade. Lightning reversals leave one behind, if didn't get on board at the right time. Technical indicators can help define, where these events would occur, and that has helped my trading this year.
Here is what I see for 2015:
1) SPX will trade much higher, up to the 2230 area (8% rise) and then a powerful reversal with a primary wave 4 trading back to the 1850 area. This will still be a bull market, and primary wave 5 would get going near years end.
2) The US dollar index will continue to rise to the 102.5-105 area. This will pressure gold and commodities.
3) Gold will fall to $900 or below, before starting a multi-year recovery. The start of the recovery may coincide with the wave 4 retracement of the SPX.
4) Crude oil will bounce back to around $67 on short covering, before falling to $40, then back to a $55-$70 trading range and be locked in for months. Gas at the pump may fall as low as $1.80-$2.00 gallon. Some of the smaller US shale players will go bankrupt.
5) The FED will hike the federal funds rate sometime in the 3rd quarter, and this would be a catalyst for the market retracement. An improving job market and upward pressure on wages would be inflationary and force the FED to act.
6) Foreign dollars will flow into the stock market and bond market as the rest of the world eases to create stimulus. Large and Mid-cap stocks would be the winners, that do not have too much globalization. McDonalds is not one of them.
7) The replacement cycle is coming upon the US. There is pent-up demand for large ticket items, that have been held off since the 2008 crash. The auto and housing sectors should do very well. The baby boomers retiring and needing new/different housing and leisure/travel options would be a bright spot.
8) Apple will peak, as the wearable watch will be a flub.
9) Heavier weighting to the C fund over S is my choice for 2015. The F fund would be the choice when the market hits SPX 2230. Avoid I, unless the USD is falling and a trend confirms it.
10) Expect volatility and don't get shook from your position for no reason. Hold your ground.
I can't predict the future, just ideas. This is not investment advice, just rambling. Predicting the future is just too much fun. Trade well and Merry Christmas!
Here is what I see for 2015:
1) SPX will trade much higher, up to the 2230 area (8% rise) and then a powerful reversal with a primary wave 4 trading back to the 1850 area. This will still be a bull market, and primary wave 5 would get going near years end.
2) The US dollar index will continue to rise to the 102.5-105 area. This will pressure gold and commodities.
3) Gold will fall to $900 or below, before starting a multi-year recovery. The start of the recovery may coincide with the wave 4 retracement of the SPX.
4) Crude oil will bounce back to around $67 on short covering, before falling to $40, then back to a $55-$70 trading range and be locked in for months. Gas at the pump may fall as low as $1.80-$2.00 gallon. Some of the smaller US shale players will go bankrupt.
5) The FED will hike the federal funds rate sometime in the 3rd quarter, and this would be a catalyst for the market retracement. An improving job market and upward pressure on wages would be inflationary and force the FED to act.
6) Foreign dollars will flow into the stock market and bond market as the rest of the world eases to create stimulus. Large and Mid-cap stocks would be the winners, that do not have too much globalization. McDonalds is not one of them.
7) The replacement cycle is coming upon the US. There is pent-up demand for large ticket items, that have been held off since the 2008 crash. The auto and housing sectors should do very well. The baby boomers retiring and needing new/different housing and leisure/travel options would be a bright spot.
8) Apple will peak, as the wearable watch will be a flub.
9) Heavier weighting to the C fund over S is my choice for 2015. The F fund would be the choice when the market hits SPX 2230. Avoid I, unless the USD is falling and a trend confirms it.
10) Expect volatility and don't get shook from your position for no reason. Hold your ground.
I can't predict the future, just ideas. This is not investment advice, just rambling. Predicting the future is just too much fun. Trade well and Merry Christmas!
Khotso
Active member
Thank you for sharing Nostradamus .... errrr, I mean, Uptrend.
It might have been fun predicting, but I want you to know that it was also interesting and fun reading. It also seems like a great practice/exercise that we all as investors should do going into a new year. I'll be interested in seeing how your first 4-5 predictions play out over 2015.
Oh, and congrats on a great TSP year. You hit two grandslams this quarter -- amazing!
felixthecat
Member
Good job Uptrend on reaching the top spot. Will continue to keep close tabs on your Uptrend thread next year.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Thanks for the congrats. For 2015 here is what I see. C and S funds should show strength, with small caps leading again. I don't think we are even close to a top. Further, the I fund should take off. EFA has been under accumulation for awhile now. I see a 9% rise minimum in the first half of the year for the I fund. Oil should trade briefly into the $40's and be volatile. I have been in and out of COP, OXY, XOM,CVX,AXAS and RIG and don't expect the swings to stop anytime soon. Oil energy could be the trade of the year in 2015 with all kind of swings. Gold/silver should tank further, after perhaps a brief pop in January-February (while the US dollar very overbought condition takes a breather) and I am not ruling out $950 on gold. I also like large tech, cyber security, cloud storage, home builders and suppliers and auto manufacturing and suppliers for 2015.
My uptrend system is stilling showing strength and remains in buy mode in the daily timeframe. The selling today should not amount to much. This could change when increased volume returns to the market next week, and I will be monitoring those developments. However, I just don't see any big sell-down right now or in the next several months for that matter. But who knows how the market masters will trick everyone. My sentiment system, is turning slightly bullish (bearish for stocks), but could easily swing the other way. Happy New Year!
My uptrend system is stilling showing strength and remains in buy mode in the daily timeframe. The selling today should not amount to much. This could change when increased volume returns to the market next week, and I will be monitoring those developments. However, I just don't see any big sell-down right now or in the next several months for that matter. But who knows how the market masters will trick everyone. My sentiment system, is turning slightly bullish (bearish for stocks), but could easily swing the other way. Happy New Year!
FAAM
Active member
UPTREND, Ditto - Congrat's on great Tracker/top-performance for 2014. More, I thank you very much for all your posts (like your 2015 thoughts here), your sharing of thoughts, reads, tips and all. I love to read your inputs regularly (along with those of a number of other "regulars" like JTH, TSP-Talk blogs daily/weekly, Nnut, Birchtree, and many more); thanks for the education. -- I wish you the best in 2015 & beyond.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Congratulations on your excellent performance on the Autotracker. Here's hoping that you can achieve returns as good (or even better) in 2015.
Best wishes,
John
Best wishes,
John
Uptrend
Well-known member
Having a lousy start for 2015, thanks to the oil hacks. My Uptrend system is almost to the tipping point of a sell, but is hung up on several metrics. If the market can reverse right here, we are good to go for a run up. However, SPX 2012 is the last line in the sand. Right now we have SPX 2022 with a doji star, which could turn into a bullish harami or could indicate a pause in a continued downtrend. Riding the storm for now. Get used to the 2015 volatility, because there will probably be a lot of it.
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