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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Tsunami's Account Talk
- Thread starter Tsunami
- Start date
alevin
Well-known member
Tsunami, so you know, the people over on Ticker-forum, including KD, are considering today to be the Hindy confirmation of the "close-enough" Hindy yesterday. I intend to respect their opinion. last one I remember being talked about was when I totally new to learning about them and it didn't sink in. this time it is. glad I'm out in G and F.
JamesE
Member
From wiki:
"One off Hindenburg Omen signals are always considered unconfirmed as the indicator has a high false alarm rate. A train of 3 to 5 coupled Hindenburg Omens are preferred by analysts wherever possible."
"must be triggered 3 times in a row within a month from the 1st triggering event for said initial trigger signal to be considered to be valid"
With this in mind, you have one "close" signal and whatever today produces. It's a start, I'll give you that. Let's keep this thread updated, may be big stuff here.
Tsunami
Well-known member
Bob McHugh is the HO guru and I'm a subscriber to him. He said Yahoo and other sources incorrectly said yesterday that we got one, but it takes a second one to confirm the signal, and yesterday's was borderline. The second one needs to come with 36 days of the first one for a confirmation, they don't have to be consecutive. Today's data isn't out yet but it might be close to the second confirming one.
Regardless, I think we've topped in wave 2 and are heading down in wave 3 now.
JTH
Well-known member
Thanks, I do appreciate the updates.
Bullitt
Well-known member
So no more trying to figure out when the Omen is upon us via open source. We have an insider!
The Hindenburg Thread: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=4536&page=5&highlight=hindenburg
Warrenlm
Well-known member
I'm not being a smartass, just asking. I'm mindful of the smartass remark I've heard where someone says another "has predicted 20 of the last 5 recessions" or some such remark. Despite the stomach turning name of this "Omen" market event, could that ratio be applicable here?
I wouldn't say McHugh is a permabear, but he does realize that buy/hold in recent years is not the best way to grow/protect your assets in this crazy market. I also subscribe to his newsletter (for several years now) and I was out of the market before the 07-08 declines (I was up 11.5% in 08 when C was down 36%), and riding the market up in 09. I got killed in 00, 01 and 02 with buy/hold, never again. If not having a loosing year in TSP funds since 02 makes me a permabear too, so be it (avg yearly return from 03 to now, 17,5%).Last edited:
Tsunami
Well-known member
Todays data: 92 new highs, 81 new lows. That definitely qualifies. If you count yesterday's data as close enough, we now have a confirmed Hindenburg Omen warning today. Using the criteria McHugh uses, they're basically 100% reliable, but the amount of the subsequent drop can be fairly small.
I believe there's been 25 preious HO signals in the last 25 years per McHugh, and the last one came on June 13, 2007, with 7 more confirming signals after that into late July. The S&P peaked in mid-July and dropped over 15%after that HO signal http://futures.tradingcharts.com/historical/SP/2007/0/continuous.html but then bottomed in August and rallied to new highs into October. So nothing says the market has to crash immediately, or keep crashing. It's just more evidence of distribution to the bag holders. But most importantly, this signal has occurred right before every "crash" over at least the last 25 years. So we now have that piece of the puzzle in place.
Let's see, McHugh's data from 3 years ago....and he defines a "crash" as a rather wimpy 15%:
- 7 were followed by 15% or greater "crashes"
- 3 were followed by 10 to 14.9% drops
- 3 were followed by declines of 8 to 9.9%
- 6 were followed by declines of 5 to 7.9%
- 4 were followed by 2 to 4.9% drops
- 2 were failures
So, basically this signal increases the odds of a drop (and we've already had a decent one), but doesn't guarantee it.
Tsunami
Well-known member
Steve Hochberg at EWI is the permabear. McHugh leans that way for sure, but I've learned to read between the lines and use his views along with all the others I read and form my own opinion. I find myself predicting with good accuracy when his "alternate" wave counts are the correct ones. In my opinion, Daneric http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/ is actually as good or better than either Hochberg or McHugh at the Elliott wave stuff, and he's free, so I always bounce his views off McHugh's. McHugh is not predicting the markets "will" go to zero by the way, just that that is one of multiple possible outcomes and would require a total collapse of the financial system. All his primary possible outcomes are bearish over the medium term (one year or so) though. I'm currently leaning towards the pattern that will result in new lows as soon as next year, with the Dow in the 5000's and S&P in the 500's, but no worse than that...in fact those lows would be followed by an enormous rally even bigger than the one just finished in April.
Tsunami
Well-known member
Sure, and here's another one I haven't seen before that Daneric linked:
http://ewtrendsandcharts.blogspot.com/
Where do these people find the time to do all this? I don't even have time to read them.
The latest from Martin Armstrong. "there will be no repeat of 1929. It is just not going to be that easy. It's something far more sinister that we face so you may have to rent a boulder instead of just a rock to hide under until the economic storm blows over."
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Deflation-to-Be-or-Not-to-Be-08-05-2010.pdf
A huge loss in the energy transition world this week:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...nker-peak-oil-theory-advocate-dies-at-67.html
Energy Secretary Chu recently visited with Simmons and came away hugely impressed and supportive of his efforts to develop offshore wind power, and generate liquid ammonia that can be used for transportation fuel in the process. I think that once oil hits the next bottom, which could be as low as below $30/barrel again, energy investments will be gigantic money makers later this decade. Not yet though. Those with the patience to wait until the bottom will be the next Rockefeller's.
alevin
Well-known member
Armstrong is amazing. I might buy his book when he gets it written. I just hope my brokerage survives long enough to let me use the cash I'm storing in the Roth. I'm taking small positions when I do buy and always have cash on hand for something to buy when things look right. not a lot looks right at the moment. Dividend stocks for the Roth, growth and cyclical stocks for the non-Roth. tax diversification strategy.
last time my regular IRA mutual funds tanked in00-02, I converted taxable IRA contribs and gains to Roth while balances were down low, and paid the taxes on the conversion. Left nontaxable IRA mutual fund contributions and gains as they were (separate accounts). In case we end up with VAT or FAIRTAX at some point. again-tax diversification.
malyla
Active member
This is interesting stuff. Armstrong is always good for some deep thoughts.
Alevin,
Any thoughts how the US defaulting on our debt would affect our SS and TSP. Should we take out loans and buy that bunker while the money is worth something, or bet that deflation will benefit our TSP portfolio and leave it alone (protect our seed corn (XL-entlady))?
Not smart enough to figure this out and I haven't read enough history to even guess at how to protect my investment and retirement in the case of a default.
Thanks.
Warrenlm
Well-known member
The USG won't technically default by failing to repay a bond/bill. The Fed and the Treasury can manage the money supply and anticipate auctions. Since electrons are so much better than paper and ink it's easy to meet any situation. It's said that, eventually, wealth denominated in dollars is in trouble. Deflation will end sometime. Depending on your current location, a bunker won't be worth investing in, IMO. Identifying a safe rural location is good for two reasons: first, as urban crimes become widespread and only annoyances if nonviolent, it would be better and second, if things get squirrely, it would be necessary. Just had to barge in.
KevinD
Well-known member
Chris Martenson was a guest on the third segment of the August 7, 2010 Financial Sense Newshour. His interview starts at 29 minutes into the segment. He advocates preparation for the hard times ahead. I've really enjoyed listening to these interviews for the past few months.
http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour
Martenson likes to compare his philosophy to the flight attendant when she says to put your own oxygen mask on first and then help the person next to you to get theirs on.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/Similar threads
