tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

It's been a choppy morning already on this first trading day of 2026. Stocks gapped up at the open, many of those gaps were filled already, and that gap fill is trying to hold.

As I talked about in today's market commentary, the first few days of a new year have been hectic in recent years with the S&P 500 giving a fake out moving, either up or down, only to reverse in the other direction later in the month.





For now, the S&P 500 held at Wednesday's low, and technically the gap is not fully filled, but the 6835 area has a wall of support that is trying to hold.



Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss, as the I-fund takes the lead again to start the year.

Gold, silver, and bitcoin are up, while oil is down a bit this morning.

 

[tsptalk]

With the S&P 500 up almost 50-points, at 6908 it is sitting right near the closing price of 12/23, which was where the Santa Claus rally started.

The military action over the weekend has not deterred the bulls from keeping the January rally going.

Yields are down and the dollar is up slightly, we have oil up $1 a barrel, gold and silver are rallying, as is bitcoin.



We have seen some whippy starts to new years in recent years so the rest of the week could prove interesting.

Not great analysis but at this point it is not easy to trust the rally until we see breakouts to new highs that hold a few days, unlike some of the failed breakouts we've been seeing in some indices.

 

[dannyboy]

It's been a choppy morning already on this first trading day of 2026. Stocks gapped up at the open, many of those gaps were filled already, and that gap fill is trying to hold.

As I talked about in today's market commentary, the first few days of a new year have been hectic in recent years with the S&P 500 giving a fake out moving, either up or down, only to reverse in the other direction later in the month.

View attachment 71359
View attachment 71360


For now, the S&P 500 held at Wednesday's low, and technically the gap is not fully filled, but the 6835 area has a wall of support that is trying to hold.

View attachment 71361

Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss, as the I-fund takes the lead again to start the year.

Gold, silver, and bitcoin are up, while oil is down a bit this morning.

I totally agree with you. It’s plain to me that a ‘Santa Claus Rally is happening now and I am keeping my funds set at S/C 50%. happy Holidays to you and all those who use and/or work at TSPTalk.
Dannyboy

 

[tsptalk]

The Santa Claus rally is over, but the January Effect is stick working as the bulls continue to hold onto control, but the US indices are all still below their highs and testing resistance.

The S&P 500 (C-fund) filled a small open gap from just after Christmas this morning, and some rising resistance is meeting with the recent highs to at least pause the current rally, but it is still early today.



The Nasdaq is going to have to make a move fairly soon as it nears the apex of the pennant formation. This week's JOLTs and / or jobs reports on Wednesday and Friday respectively, could be the catalyst for a break in one direction or the other. It remains above all the key moving averages so the bulls have an advantage, but they must hold.

Yields and the dollar are up. Small caps are lagging a bit this morning, but the I-fund is rallying again despite the strength in the dollar.

Gold and silver are up, oil is flat and bitcoin is down,

 

[tsptalk]

The rally is pausing, at least to start the day on Wednesday. We have some solid gains to start the year and we may get a little battle between profit takers, and dip buyers from the underinvested.

Small caps are lagging this morning after a robust start to the New Year. The recent breakout in the market leading Dow Transports quickly saw another new high this morning, but it is pulling back just as quickly.



The Nasdaq 100 on the other hand, (top tech stocks) is trying to finally break out of its pennant formation. Sometimes these give us a fake out in the wrong direction before an actual breakout move in the other direction, but this is rather deep into the apex and perhaps a little late for that.

Yields started the day down sharply but the 10-year is trying once again to hold at the 50-day average, after resistance held again yesterday at the 200-day average. It is still in a bullish flag.




Gold, silver, oil, and bitcoin are all down, and the dollar is holding steady.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are reacting positively to the jobs report which came in moderately short of estimates, but the unemployment rate dropped. This doesn't hurt the case for an interest rate cut but it probably didn't help much either. It's another data point out of the way that did no damage, and stocks are rallying with the S&P and other indices making new highs.

It was also announced the the Supreme Court will not rule on the legality of tariffs today, pushing that issue down the road to an another unknown date.




Bonds yields are down, the dollar is up. Gold, silver, oil, and bitcoin are all up this morning.

 

[tsptalk]

Sorry, no forum post this morning. I'll be back in the office tomorrow. Thanks!

Nice little rebound after the overnight selling in the futures after it was made public that Powell is being investigated.

 

[nasa1974]

Sorry, no forum post this morning. I'll be back in the office tomorrow. Thanks!

Nice little rebound after the overnight selling in the futures after it was made public that Powell is being investigated.

Numbers look better now than earlier this morning.

 

[tsptalk]

Trump continues to go after Powell this morning but the market seems to have shrugged that off. The CPI data came in a little better than expected sending yields lower as the 10-year refuses to break out of that bull flag. Lower yields are helping the S-fund lead the other funds again again - although it is only flat. The dollar rallied so the I-fund is lagging.



The small caps (S-fund) chart looks great and has been on quite a run. It has been up sharply this year and perhaps needs a rest but that long consolidation going back to October is a nice base from which to breakout.

Oil is up almost $2 a barrel. Gold is flat but silver is up 4%. Bitcoin is also rallying.

 

[tsptalk]

Yields and the dollar are falling after yet another benign inflation report, but the chances of a Fed rate cut by the March meeting continues to fall.

There is now a 73% chance that rates will hold where they are going out to the March FOMC meeting, and stocks are adjusting to that.



The S&P is holding at key support after falling below a rising support line.

Because of the drop in yields and the dollar, the S and I-funds are holding up better than the C-fund, with the I-fund's ACWX actually positive.

Bitcoin and precious metals are rallying. Oil is up slightly.

 

[tsptalk]

More new highs in the indices with small caps leading the way yet again.

The clean breakaway in the S-fund from the inverted head and shoulders pattern looks good, but you'd have to be a chaser to get in now, but waiting for a pullback could get frustrating.




Small caps are up despite a pop higher in the 10-year yield which, is bouncing off the 50-day average again. The bull flag the wouldn't break or die.



The dollar is up as well and the I-fund is lagging today, although still positive.

Oil is down sharply after its spike higher, and the strength in the dollar may have something to do with gold, silver, and bitcoin being done this morning.

 

[car28mi65]

Novice - How concerning is a Wyckoff distribution at this point

 

[tsptalk]

Novice - How concerning is a Wyckoff distribution at this point

The S&P looks slightly more concerning, but I probably wouldn't sell on the formation right now. I would be looking for failed break outs to get more serious, holding below resistance and/or falling below moving averages. That's when I'd act on it.

 

[tsptalk]

Breakout from bull flag -- finally!

 

[dannyboy]

The Santa Claus rally is over, but the January Effect is stick working as the bulls continue to hold onto control, but the US indices are all still below their highs and testing resistance.

The S&P 500 (C-fund) filled a small open gap from just after Christmas this morning, and some rising resistance is meeting with the recent highs to at least pause the current rally, but it is still early today.

View attachment 71384

The Nasdaq is going to have to make a move fairly soon as it nears the apex of the pennant formation. This week's JOLTs and / or jobs reports on Wednesday and Friday respectively, could be the catalyst for a break in one direction or the other. It remains above all the key moving averages so the bulls have an advantage, but they must hold.

Yields and the dollar are up. Small caps are lagging a bit this morning, but the I-fund is rallying again despite the strength in the dollar.

Gold and silver are up, oil is flat and bitcoin is down,

Thanks,
I still believe Santa's Rally can appear and I saw a faint vision of a rise but it faded.
D

 

[tsptalk]

Panic, or a shift in outlook?

Stocks are tumbling this morning as the world processes the Greenland situation, and the tariffs that may be triggering some kind of trade war. Or is this another round of Trump triggered volatility that needs to be bought?

It may be too early to say as some charts hold, while other are showing some cracks. We may have an answer by the close, or it could take some time to play out.

 

[tsptalk]

The initial panic of the post holiday weekend, which was packed with market testing news, seems to have subsided. I don't know if the worst is over yet, but today there is some relief as the S&P 500 points toward filling in Tuesday's open gap. Conventional wisdom suggests that's where the test will be, as does the Wyckoff Distribution pattern.



Yields are down slightly and the dollar is up slightly, after yesterday' big moves.

Gold is up, silver is down, bitcoin and oil are up modestly.

 

[tsptalk]

The market is trying to digest, and perhaps re-price, the events of the last few days, while getting ready for next week's FOMC meeting, and the potential government shut down if another deal isn't reached before the end of the month.

We have new highs being made in the S and I Index funds this morning, while the S&P 500 is still trying to fill in the gap from Tuesday morning's sell off. These set ups suggest the S&P 500 may continue to underperform, but can the others move up if the S&P 500 fails here after filling the gap, which is possible, but obviously not certain?



Yields are up and the dollar is down. Gold and silver are up. Oil and bitcoin are down.

 

[tsptalk]

Even after Intel reported earnings and was trading down more than 10% afterhours last night, the Market futures were up. That not only showed that Intel is not the mega-cap it once was, but how resilient this market has been.

We did see some weakness after the opening bell but it wasn't Intel. It was more likely Japan's bond yields.


This chart doesn't show last night's action, but it shows how quickly the Japanese 10-year, and other bond yields, have been rising recently.

The US 1-year is flat. Gold and silver are up with silver flirting with $100 for the first time ever. Cryptos are mostly lower.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index was revised up to 56.4 in January 2026, from a preliminary 54.0 and December’s 52.9.