tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

It's been a choppy morning already on this first trading day of 2026. Stocks gapped up at the open, many of those gaps were filled already, and that gap fill is trying to hold.

As I talked about in today's market commentary, the first few days of a new year have been hectic in recent years with the S&P 500 giving a fake out moving, either up or down, only to reverse in the other direction later in the month.





For now, the S&P 500 held at Wednesday's low, and technically the gap is not fully filled, but the 6835 area has a wall of support that is trying to hold.



Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss, as the I-fund takes the lead again to start the year.

Gold, silver, and bitcoin are up, while oil is down a bit this morning.

 

[tsptalk]

With the S&P 500 up almost 50-points, at 6908 it is sitting right near the closing price of 12/23, which was where the Santa Claus rally started.

The military action over the weekend has not deterred the bulls from keeping the January rally going.

Yields are down and the dollar is up slightly, we have oil up $1 a barrel, gold and silver are rallying, as is bitcoin.



We have seen some whippy starts to new years in recent years so the rest of the week could prove interesting.

Not great analysis but at this point it is not easy to trust the rally until we see breakouts to new highs that hold a few days, unlike some of the failed breakouts we've been seeing in some indices.

 

[dannyboy]

It's been a choppy morning already on this first trading day of 2026. Stocks gapped up at the open, many of those gaps were filled already, and that gap fill is trying to hold.

As I talked about in today's market commentary, the first few days of a new year have been hectic in recent years with the S&P 500 giving a fake out moving, either up or down, only to reverse in the other direction later in the month.

View attachment 71359
View attachment 71360


For now, the S&P 500 held at Wednesday's low, and technically the gap is not fully filled, but the 6835 area has a wall of support that is trying to hold.

View attachment 71361

Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss, as the I-fund takes the lead again to start the year.

Gold, silver, and bitcoin are up, while oil is down a bit this morning.

I totally agree with you. It’s plain to me that a ‘Santa Claus Rally is happening now and I am keeping my funds set at S/C 50%. happy Holidays to you and all those who use and/or work at TSPTalk.
Dannyboy

 

[tsptalk]

The Santa Claus rally is over, but the January Effect is stick working as the bulls continue to hold onto control, but the US indices are all still below their highs and testing resistance.

The S&P 500 (C-fund) filled a small open gap from just after Christmas this morning, and some rising resistance is meeting with the recent highs to at least pause the current rally, but it is still early today.



The Nasdaq is going to have to make a move fairly soon as it nears the apex of the pennant formation. This week's JOLTs and / or jobs reports on Wednesday and Friday respectively, could be the catalyst for a break in one direction or the other. It remains above all the key moving averages so the bulls have an advantage, but they must hold.

Yields and the dollar are up. Small caps are lagging a bit this morning, but the I-fund is rallying again despite the strength in the dollar.

Gold and silver are up, oil is flat and bitcoin is down,