tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Stocks opened sharply lower on Tuesday. They've been trying to battle back to fill in the gap left open, and in the process, the S&P 500 is trying to fill in the open gap from Oct 24. So far the action remains a typical pullback to the breakout area, while filling in gaps, at least on the S&P 500...



... but the recent weakness in the small caps has been a little more serious as we saw a major breakdown at the open on the S-fund chart. It has since regained the 50-day EMA but it remains below the trading channel, so today's close, or at least the close over then next day or two, is key to keeping this bullish trend alive.

With October being the 6th straight month of gains for the S&P 500, it is probably be due for a losing month, right? Well, 68% of past 6-month winning streaks lasted to 7 or more months.

Yields are down but the dollar is ticking higher again, and that is leading to losses in gold, oil, and crypto.

 

[James48843]

Japan and South Korea are both down more than 2.5% overnight. That’s not a good sign.

 

[tsptalk]

We're less than an hour into the trading day and stocks are up and trying to hold onto moderate gains. The indices are vulnerable after the recent trouncing so watch for the bears to try to pull things lower again.

The current action is nearly a repeat of the July - August action, but now comes the hard part - the rally ensued at the end of that first box.



The Supreme Court is hearing arguments about the legality of Trump's tariff policy, AI stocks are stumbling, Wall Street, NY will be getting a democratic socialist mayor, and interest rates may or may not be going down again next month. the market is trying to price all of this in.

Gold and bitcoin are up, oil is down, while yields and the dollar are up.

Strong ADP jobs data is contributing to this move in the 10-year yield.

 

[tsptalk]

Uncertainty is keeping volatility high as the Supreme Court will be decide on the tariff policies, the Fed will be considering the fate of interest rates, and we are still not getting economic data from the government.

AI stocks are stumbling again as some bloated prices get adjusted, although they may be throwing the baby out with the bath water in some cases as we know some of these companies are leaders and others are just tagging along.

Yields and the dollar are falling sharply, both of which should be giving stocks a little boost, but the quick shifts can spook the markets.



Bitcoin and oil are down while gold is flat.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks got off to another rough start this morning with a gap down opening. As usual, the initial reaction was some backing and filling of that gap but once that trading is done, the indices are left to find a direction.

The news has been bad and even though we did not get a jobs report, there were some "guesses" posted on CNBC.

Had the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly nonfarm payrolls report, economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect it would have shown a decline of 60,000 jobs and an unemployment rate increase to 4.5%.

It's not very common for a stock market pullback to bottom on a Friday, but we actually had two Friday's put in a low in the last several months.



I read that the Fed is scheduling an emergency meeting at 3 PM ET today. It was on X but I can't confirm it. And as Abe Lincoln always said, you can't trust everything you read on the internet.

Gold and bitcoin are flat this morning, and oil is up as the dollar is falling again. Yields are also down slightly.

 

[jonfresno]

Transports seem to be doing well. Weird..

 

[tsptalk]

Good catch. Yeah, they've really been acting odd the last several months.

 

[tsptalk]

Transports seem to be doing well. Weird..

Still a half hour to go but it's on pace for its highest close since July.

 

[amoeba]

I think there will be a 0.5% interest rate drop at next FED, unemployment is farther out of control than inflation. Why? OK, I just feel it, but the shutdown precludes hard data confirmation. I think the wishy washy comments by FED governors are a buy opportunity. Small caps, baby!

Sent from my moto g 5G (2022) using Tapatalk

 

[tsptalk]

A big gap opening this morning after Friday's positive reversal day. It's all good, but besides some backing and filling of the gaps as the indices come off the earlier highs, the charts are still a factor. Snap back rallies are common, even in poor markets, so it must hold and follow through in order for this one to be taken seriously.

We can see that here in the S-fund chart where the old broken support is now acting as resistance - at least in early trading.




The C and S-fund charts are also backing off to fill some of their gaps, but those charts never did fall below support.

Was it the Senate deal in the Senate or did the market sniff that out on Friday when the reversal began?

We have yields and the dollar up slightly. Oil is flat, gold is up 2%, and bitcoin is steady after a weekend rally.