tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Stocks opened sharply lower on Tuesday. They've been trying to battle back to fill in the gap left open, and in the process, the S&P 500 is trying to fill in the open gap from Oct 24. So far the action remains a typical pullback to the breakout area, while filling in gaps, at least on the S&P 500...



... but the recent weakness in the small caps has been a little more serious as we saw a major breakdown at the open on the S-fund chart. It has since regained the 50-day EMA but it remains below the trading channel, so today's close, or at least the close over then next day or two, is key to keeping this bullish trend alive.

With October being the 6th straight month of gains for the S&P 500, it is probably be due for a losing month, right? Well, 68% of past 6-month winning streaks lasted to 7 or more months.

Yields are down but the dollar is ticking higher again, and that is leading to losses in gold, oil, and crypto.

 

[James48843]

Japan and South Korea are both down more than 2.5% overnight. That’s not a good sign.

 

[tsptalk]

We're less than an hour into the trading day and stocks are up and trying to hold onto moderate gains. The indices are vulnerable after the recent trouncing so watch for the bears to try to pull things lower again.

The current action is nearly a repeat of the July - August action, but now comes the hard part - the rally ensued at the end of that first box.



The Supreme Court is hearing arguments about the legality of Trump's tariff policy, AI stocks are stumbling, Wall Street, NY will be getting a democratic socialist mayor, and interest rates may or may not be going down again next month. the market is trying to price all of this in.

Gold and bitcoin are up, oil is down, while yields and the dollar are up.

Strong ADP jobs data is contributing to this move in the 10-year yield.

 

[tsptalk]

Uncertainty is keeping volatility high as the Supreme Court will be decide on the tariff policies, the Fed will be considering the fate of interest rates, and we are still not getting economic data from the government.

AI stocks are stumbling again as some bloated prices get adjusted, although they may be throwing the baby out with the bath water in some cases as we know some of these companies are leaders and others are just tagging along.

Yields and the dollar are falling sharply, both of which should be giving stocks a little boost, but the quick shifts can spook the markets.



Bitcoin and oil are down while gold is flat.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks got off to another rough start this morning with a gap down opening. As usual, the initial reaction was some backing and filling of that gap but once that trading is done, the indices are left to find a direction.

The news has been bad and even though we did not get a jobs report, there were some "guesses" posted on CNBC.

Had the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly nonfarm payrolls report, economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect it would have shown a decline of 60,000 jobs and an unemployment rate increase to 4.5%.

It's not very common for a stock market pullback to bottom on a Friday, but we actually had two Friday's put in a low in the last several months.



I read that the Fed is scheduling an emergency meeting at 3 PM ET today. It was on X but I can't confirm it. And as Abe Lincoln always said, you can't trust everything you read on the internet.

Gold and bitcoin are flat this morning, and oil is up as the dollar is falling again. Yields are also down slightly.

 

[jonfresno]

Transports seem to be doing well. Weird..

 

[tsptalk]

Good catch. Yeah, they've really been acting odd the last several months.

 

[tsptalk]

Transports seem to be doing well. Weird..

Still a half hour to go but it's on pace for its highest close since July.

 

[amoeba]

I think there will be a 0.5% interest rate drop at next FED, unemployment is farther out of control than inflation. Why? OK, I just feel it, but the shutdown precludes hard data confirmation. I think the wishy washy comments by FED governors are a buy opportunity. Small caps, baby!

Sent from my moto g 5G (2022) using Tapatalk

 

[tsptalk]

A big gap opening this morning after Friday's positive reversal day. It's all good, but besides some backing and filling of the gaps as the indices come off the earlier highs, the charts are still a factor. Snap back rallies are common, even in poor markets, so it must hold and follow through in order for this one to be taken seriously.

We can see that here in the S-fund chart where the old broken support is now acting as resistance - at least in early trading.




The C and S-fund charts are also backing off to fill some of their gaps, but those charts never did fall below support.

Was it the Senate deal in the Senate or did the market sniff that out on Friday when the reversal began?

We have yields and the dollar up slightly. Oil is flat, gold is up 2%, and bitcoin is steady after a weekend rally.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are coming off their opening highs as the indices digest recent gains, but it feels like the market is just breathing after the recent drop and pop. Nasdaq continues to feel some pain as the AI trade sees more profit taking.

The small caps opened very strongly but the old support from the bottom of the ascending channel continues to act as resistance - albeit rising resistance.




Yields are down as concerns about the labor market are getting more serious.




The market leading Dow Transportation Index tagged its previous highs and looks like it wants to give us a double top pullback.




Gold is up sharply, oil is down sharply, and bitcoin is just under water after giving up a nice morning gain.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are selling off this morning, perhaps a sell the news reaction to the reopening of the government after it rallied into the final steps of the deal making. Or it could be the Fed that is now positioning themselves with a more hawkish outlook, oddly at a time when the labor market is struggling most, and the previous CPI report showed improvement in inflation.

Or it could just be the charts doing some backing and filling, as we thought they might, with those open gaps below. The C-fund's S&P 500 has rolled over and heading toward its gap. The S-fund's DWCPF (middle chart) has filled its gap this morning, but now it seems to be heading toward retracing last Friday's reversal candlestick.



The I-fund's ACWX is down just slightly thanks to the dollar's 0.36% decline this morning.



The rolling over of the indices before retesting the new highs is not a great look as it could be creating a new lower high. With the S-fund already making a lower low, the bulls are hoping it is just a bull flag forming, rather than a new downtrend off a peak.

Oil is up, gold is down, and bitcoin has been chopping around near its recent lows.

 

[tsptalk]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1988983803604529414

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks had another gap down open on Friday and less than 90 minutes later, that gap has been filled. It's fairly early in the day for that kind of recovery so either it will fail soon, or we are about to witness an even bigger reversal day than we saw last Friday.



Tech stocks of the Nasdaq have been hit hard lately but it is the Nasdaq leading the big three indices this morning.

Investors are still running blind with very little economic data being released, but knowing the Fed seems to be making up its mind that they don't need to cut in December. My guess is that they will cut. the right now are still about 50/50.

Gold is down sharply, oil is up. Yields and the dollar are up slightly, and bitcoin has fallen below 100K.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are on the flat to weaker side this morning, and that's a disappointment after the futures were up sharply until about 3AM last night. It's also a disappointment with Friday's positive reversal not getting some follow through and Monday's having done well lately, but it's early.

There's a lot a bearishness out there with talk of a crash, and the 5th Hindenburg Omen Signal is feeding it. The question is, will the markets collapse on cue? The set up is there, but it seems highly anticipated and that should make it less likely.

Small caps and the I-fund are lagging the flat S&P 500 and that 30-day average (green) is still holding as resistance and keeping the index from rebounding like it has so many other times after a pullback..



Oil, gold and bitcoin are all relatively flat this morning.

 

[JTH]

Stocks are on the flat to weaker side this morning, and that's a disappointment after the futures were up sharply until about 3AM last night. It's also a disappointment with Friday's positive reversal not getting some follow through and Monday's having done well lately, but it's early.

There's a lot a bearishness out there with talk of a crash, and the 5th Hindenburg Omen Signal is feeding it. The question is, will the markets collapse on cue? The set up is there, but it seems highly anticipated and that should make it less likely.

Small caps and the I-fund are lagging the flat S&P 500 and that 30-day average (green) is still holding as resistance and keeping the index from rebounding like it has so many other times after a pullback..

View attachment 70782

Oil, gold and bitcoin are all relatively flat this morning.

Have to admit I was somewhat puzzled by Friday's reversal on normal volume, it didn't feel like the flush I was wanting to see.

 

[tsptalk]

Another smack down open on Tuesday after Japan's Nikkei lost over 3% last night. The reason to sell (or buy) hasn't changed, but rather emotion has taken over in the short-term.

It's too early in the morning for a reversal to be taken seriously but the indices are coming off their lows and the small caps of the Russell 2000, which have been hit hardest recently, is nearly flat at the moment.




JTH mentioned 2007 the other day, and that's a pretty good comparison, unfortunately. Not that we're going to experience another 2007 - 2009 bear market, but the way we saw new highs even after the initial peak. Tops usually take longer to form than bottoms.

 

[tsptalk]

A good start to Wednesday morning with the S&P 500 making a higher high over Tuesday and holding for the first hour, but it's a little hard to trust with it running into the 50-day average, where old broken support may try to act as resistance.




We will get the Fed meeting minutes at noon ET today, and Nvidia reports after the closing bell today.

Gold is up, oil and bitcoin are down. I mentioned in another post that GDPNow, the Atlanta Fed, has raised 3rd quarter GDP estimates to 4.2%.

 

[TommyIV]

A good start to Wednesday morning with the S&P 500 making a higher high over Tuesday and holding for the first hour, but it's a little hard to trust with it running into the 50-day average, where old broken support may try to act as resistance.

View attachment 70816

Look what you've done



Maybe no one would have noticed it.

 

[tsptalk]

Did Nvidia just save the AI trade? That's the hope this morning, after weeks of talk of a bubble and even a crash coming to the stock market.

Now it is still early and this could fail. The gap left behind at the open is large and there will be some gravity trying to pull it down to fill it, but right now this morning's 2% gain puts the index back above the 50 and 30 day averages and, surprisingly, right back in the rising trading channel. so holding this morning's gains is crucial.



The jobs report came in better than expected, but that is old, pre-government shutdown data, so it's not too impactful.

Yields are down helping the F-fund (and S-fund to a lesser degree), but the dollar is up causing the I-fund to lag.

Gold is flat, oil and bitcoin are up as the market tries to figure out this new development.