tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

The S&P 500 is stalling under the 50-day EMA, which isn't a great look, but not unusual to see it hold off there, perhaps until the next headline hits and it will either breakout or rollover. With 4 Magnificent 7 stocks reporting this week starting after the bell on Wednesday, and the important jobs report on Friday, we should have some answers by the end of the week if you're not into speculating.



The 10-year yields is down sharply but the dollar is up modestly. Small caps and the I-fund are currently flat. Oil and gold are down, and bitcoin is up a bit.

 

[tsptalk]

The very early action is dealing with both resistance and support as the S&P 500 trades between the 20 and 50-day moving averages again this week. I'm surprised how well behaved it has been to the 20-day average lately.




The low Q1 GDP is bringing fears of a recession back, but yields are actually flat to slightly higher so it appears that the bond market may have been reacting to this already with the recent sharp decline. Yields tend to move lower on weaker economic data.




The jobs report on Friday may be a better indication since Q1 GDP data is more rear-view mirror data. They've been making estimates for several months already.

This may just be the excuse for the S&P 500 to pullback from the 50-day EMA, which is typical on the way back up.