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Just a normal 400 point swing in the S&P 500 in the first hour of trading today. Nothing to see here.

tsp-040725a.gif

There was an indication on the news wire about the administration offering a 90-day pause to tariffs, which was later refuted, and the rally, which was tremendous, ran out of steam and rolled over again.

The VIX hit 60 this morning. Remember, it peaked at 65 during that off sell off last August.

tsp-040725b.gif

The S&P is now down over 100-points again. But if there was a lesson to learned here, the shorts know what they will be up against if there is any bullish news, so they may be treading a little more lightly.
 
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tsptalk said:
Just a normal 400 point swing in the S&P 500 in the first hour of trading today. Nothing to see here.

View attachment 68724

There was an indication on the news wire about the administration offering a 90 pause to tariffs, which was later refuted, and the rally, which was tremendous, ran out of steam and rolled over again.
Click to expand...

That did give us a taste of how the market may react to such news. This market is ready to take off once it's thrown a bone.
 
  • President Donald Trump is threatening new 50% tariffs on China unless Beijing lifts its retaliatory duties on U.S. exports by tomorrow.
  • The White House says any suggestion that Trump is considering a 90-day pause in tariffs is "fake news."
  • U.S. markets opened sharply lowerMonday for a third trading session, as Trump's tariffs paralyze global trade and investment.
  • Asian markets plunged overnight, with stock indexes in Singapore, Australia, Japan, South Korea and India all suffering losses.
  • European Union President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU is willing to negotiatewith the U.S. on tariffs but also said the bloc will prepare to retaliate.
  • Billionaire Trump backer Bill Ackman says America is on the brink of an "economic nuclear winter" due to tariffs.
  • DOGE chief Elon Musk and top Trump trade advisor Peter Navarro continued a war of words and tweets over free trade.
  • Trump will host Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, one of his closest allies, at the White House Monday.
  • Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick insists that tariffs will not be postponed, and will "stay in place for days and weeks."
More: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/04/07/trump-tariffs-live-updates-stock-market-crypto.html
 
Some day traders are making bank today. Others are going broke!

I assume margin calls are causing some forced selling by now, but once that subsides the exhausted selling may pause for a couple/ few days.

It's a poor market but temporarily snap back rallies are inevitable, and we got a taste of that earlier this morning.
 
Big crooked number percentage gains this morning as the snap back rally resumes for a second day. Obviously under the current conditions and elevated VIX, the market remains vulnerable, but this was due.

The early gains are slipping some, but there are plenty of upside targets for a relief rally with two major open gaps above. Today's rally also created a gap below.

tsp-040825c.gif

The additional tariffs on China will go into effect tonight if no deals are reached, but today's rally is likely because the world realizes that Trump's take on tariffs is leverage on negotiations. There's wiggle room, at least that's the excuse for today's rally.

Bonds yields are are flat. Gold and oil are up, and Bitcoin is up a bit.
 
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tsptalk said:
The additional tariffs on China will go into effect tonight if no deals are reached, but today's rally is likely because the world realizes that Trump's take on tariffs is leverage on negotiations. There's wiggle room, at least that's the excuse for today's rally.

Bonds yields are are flat. Gold and oil are up, and Bitcoin is up a bit.
Click to expand...

I won't be satisfied, until we get that -20% Bear Market headline.
 
It’s a dead cat bounce. That 3% up was just a head fake. It’s gone again in a flash.

The tariffs are not a negotiating tool. It’s a complete shift away from income tax onto tariffs instead. That’s a major change to the economy and It’s going to screw up everything.

Another day or two and it is going down again, big time.
 
The volatility isn't quite as bad as the last few days, but it is elevated and it's early. From a fundamental standpoint, it feels like this may never get resolved and expectations are tough to judge because of the chaotic nature of what's happening and dramatic changes that the world hasn't seen in a while. But how much of this is already priced in? How much does this devalue a company like Nvidia or Amazon, the later of which is now sitting at a P/E ratio equal to what it was at the 2008 - 2009 bear market bottom?

Sentiment is extremely fearful no matter how you slice it, although I have to admit that a lot of people on X are explaining why stocks should bottom here, and that's a bad sign.

One good sign is that long term support is in the neighborhood and that's connecting the bottom of two previous bear markets plus last August's correction. That is followed by the 200-week moving average.

tsp-040925a.gif


Can it get worse? Yes. Can it hold? Yes.
 
exnavyew said:
Sold MOST of my brokerage account with the intent of buying it back cheaper in the next week or so! :banana:
Click to expand...
Good plan in my opinion. I also sold all of my remaining positions at Vanguard. Waiting to see how the rest of the week plays out. I'm not sure we will be able to buy back shares cheaper, but I had some nice gains with this rip that I did not want to leave on the table.
 
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