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tsptalk's Market Talk
- Thread starter tsptalk
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Stocks and yields are trying to bounce back, and perhaps fill gaps left open from Monday's crazy reaction to DeepSeek. Not crazy, as in it shouldn't have happened, but it was a bit of an overreaction and a "sell first, ask questions later" reaction across the board - even some stocks unrelated.
Today we are seeing some backing and filling, but it's tough to say yet if it's just dead cat bounce action. Interest rates are still going to come down again by the May FOMC meeting and liquidity is still on the side of the bulls, so any bears that believe this A-I news is going to kill the bull market, could still have a tough fight on their hands.
Maybe I am wrong and misunderestimating what DeepSeek means to US tech stocks, but there is plenty of fuel for stocks right now, and until that changes, we'll probably keep seeing the bulls buying those dips.
Watch the reaction once these gaps are filled.
Today we are seeing some backing and filling, but it's tough to say yet if it's just dead cat bounce action. Interest rates are still going to come down again by the May FOMC meeting and liquidity is still on the side of the bulls, so any bears that believe this A-I news is going to kill the bull market, could still have a tough fight on their hands.
Maybe I am wrong and misunderestimating what DeepSeek means to US tech stocks, but there is plenty of fuel for stocks right now, and until that changes, we'll probably keep seeing the bulls buying those dips.
Watch the reaction once these gaps are filled.
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The day starts with yields and stocks down modestly, but there is a million miles to go today, and into the end of the week. We haven't had a 10% correction in a while, but the current monetary policies have continued to help promote dip buying.
The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged but that doesn't mean there won't be a big reaction to their updated policy statement and commentary.
After the bell Microsoft, Tesla, and Meta all report earnings.
Let the fireworks begin -- at 2 PM ET.
The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged but that doesn't mean there won't be a big reaction to their updated policy statement and commentary.
After the bell Microsoft, Tesla, and Meta all report earnings.
Let the fireworks begin -- at 2 PM ET.
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Stocks opened higher this morning despite some mixed results from three of the Mag 7 companies reporting last night. To see Microsoft, Tesla, as well as Nvidia down this morning, yet the indices rallying is interesting. The Nasdaq just turn negative but it's fairly flat.
Seasonality is on the bulls' side for a few more days and the first half of February isn't bad historically. It's the second half of the month that has a dubious record.
The DWCPF (S-fund) chart in my previous post showed the overhead gap getting filled and right now it is trading slightly above the gap, which is good news, but as always, it's the close that matters most and we have seen some afternoon reversals lately, so... The problem is, we have to make our decisions this morning.
Yields are down and the 10-year Treasury yield is testing key support.
Gold, silver, and other metals are up big so far today. Gold is back challenging its all time high. Bitcoin is near 106K and the weakness in the dollar is helping most assets this morning.
Apple reports after the bell and investors are holding their breadth to hear the companies plans for spending on AI.
Seasonality is on the bulls' side for a few more days and the first half of February isn't bad historically. It's the second half of the month that has a dubious record.
The DWCPF (S-fund) chart in my previous post showed the overhead gap getting filled and right now it is trading slightly above the gap, which is good news, but as always, it's the close that matters most and we have seen some afternoon reversals lately, so... The problem is, we have to make our decisions this morning.
Yields are down and the 10-year Treasury yield is testing key support.
Gold, silver, and other metals are up big so far today. Gold is back challenging its all time high. Bitcoin is near 106K and the weakness in the dollar is helping most assets this morning.
Apple reports after the bell and investors are holding their breadth to hear the companies plans for spending on AI.
Apple's earnings has the stock up about 2% this morning, but at 241.50, it's off the 247 opening price. The PCE Price data was inline with estimates, so no issues there.
Yields are flat but the dollar is up so we see the I-fund index lagging this morning.
The indices are trying to put an exclamation mark on a good month to start 2025. Assuming things don't fall apart before the close, the January Barometer suggests a decent year for stocks.
www.investopedia.com
Gold is up, oil is down, and bitcoin is flat near $105K.
Yields are flat but the dollar is up so we see the I-fund index lagging this morning.
The indices are trying to put an exclamation mark on a good month to start 2025. Assuming things don't fall apart before the close, the January Barometer suggests a decent year for stocks.
January Barometer: What It Is, How It Works, Example
January Barometer refers to a belief that the S&P 500's performance in January can predict its performance for the rest of the year. The accuracy of the barometer has been mixed.
Gold is up, oil is down, and bitcoin is flat near $105K.
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JTH
Well-known member
It might be that since BTC is a 24/7 market, it gets to price in the bad news during the weekend. Given its volatility, I'm guessing the moves are too drastic for folks to want to make BTC their fear trade.
One of these days I need to do a ratio-correlation study, with SPX/Bond/Gold
The Dow is down, but we have some modest green numbers on the indices. The Nasdaq is leading thanks to the 27% gain in Palantir which is giving the AI group a boost.
The tariff hangover is still lingering and investors are trying to decide if they overreacted yesterday, or not. Early follow through to yesterday's positive reversal is normal, but we have to wait to see if the "sell the rallies" folks show up.
It's too early to say. It seems like whenever I do an analysis of the first half hour, that's anything but how the day ends, but right now we have yields up modestly, gold is up, bitcoin is down and hovering near 100K.
The tariff hangover is still lingering and investors are trying to decide if they overreacted yesterday, or not. Early follow through to yesterday's positive reversal is normal, but we have to wait to see if the "sell the rallies" folks show up.
It's too early to say. It seems like whenever I do an analysis of the first half hour, that's anything but how the day ends, but right now we have yields up modestly, gold is up, bitcoin is down and hovering near 100K.
Stocks are mixed with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq trying to battle back after Alphabet's earnings and its 8% loss is putting pressure on big tech. Small caps are sailing along as the rotation is still slowly happening, and they're getting help from another big drop in yield and the dollar this morning.
I highlighted this is my daily commentary but we have bull flags, open gaps, and resistance having a pushing and pulling effect on the indices.
Yields are down sharply giving the F-fund (BND) a rare big positive day, and right now this looks like a possible major breakout.
Oil is down and gold is up big again. Bitcoin has been floundering back below 100K.
I highlighted this is my daily commentary but we have bull flags, open gaps, and resistance having a pushing and pulling effect on the indices.
Yields are down sharply giving the F-fund (BND) a rare big positive day, and right now this looks like a possible major breakout.
Oil is down and gold is up big again. Bitcoin has been floundering back below 100K.
It's a flat morning for stocks after a positive open, with yields and the dollar up slightly. The jobless claims data came in a little soft (more claims than expected) but the recent internal struggle for the stock market has been whether investors want to see data on the soft side to keep the Fed on patch to lowering rates again, or if they want to see firmer data to show more growth, which could keep yields and interest rates buoyant.
The new Treasury Secretary says Trump is focus on keeping yields down, not pressuring the Fed, but I'm not sure what he can do about that except try to keep inflation curbed or slow down the economy?
Gold is down. Oil and bitcoin are on the flat side.
Amazon reports after the bell today, and we get the January jobs report tomorrow before the opening bell.
The new Treasury Secretary says Trump is focus on keeping yields down, not pressuring the Fed, but I'm not sure what he can do about that except try to keep inflation curbed or slow down the economy?
Gold is down. Oil and bitcoin are on the flat side.
Amazon reports after the bell today, and we get the January jobs report tomorrow before the opening bell.
After the weaker than expected jobs report, the probability of a rate cut by the May FOMC meeting declined.
The unemployment rate surprisingly drop to 4.0% and that pushed bond yields higher (F-fund down) but stocks are rolling over after an initial positive open. More people working = possible inflation, but also economic strength. It's an initial reaction, and with the upward revision to prior months' jobs numbers and increase in population figures, I'm not sure what to make of it all. I think this needs more digesting.
Gold, oil, and crypto are all up.
Early action in C, S, and F funds...
The unemployment rate surprisingly drop to 4.0% and that pushed bond yields higher (F-fund down) but stocks are rolling over after an initial positive open. More people working = possible inflation, but also economic strength. It's an initial reaction, and with the upward revision to prior months' jobs numbers and increase in population figures, I'm not sure what to make of it all. I think this needs more digesting.
Gold, oil, and crypto are all up.
Early action in C, S, and F funds...
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The stock market is brushing off the latest tariff talk and started the week on a positive note - trying to recover some of Friday's losses. The dollar is up but that is not holding the I-fund back this morning as it is up 0.77%, which is leading the TSP funds in early trading. The small caps of the Russell 2000 are flat and lagging.
The decline in the unemployment rate and the unexpected rise in wages gave investors some inflation concerns last week and that sent yields higher on Friday, but this morning the 10-year yield is backing off of overhead resistance, which happens to be the neckline of a broken head and shoulders pattern.
February is not the most bullish month for stocks historically, but this week has a particularly strong record for some reason.
Gold, oil, and bitcoin are all up this morning, with gold making new all-time highs.
The decline in the unemployment rate and the unexpected rise in wages gave investors some inflation concerns last week and that sent yields higher on Friday, but this morning the 10-year yield is backing off of overhead resistance, which happens to be the neckline of a broken head and shoulders pattern.
February is not the most bullish month for stocks historically, but this week has a particularly strong record for some reason.
Gold, oil, and bitcoin are all up this morning, with gold making new all-time highs.
The Fed Chair Jerome Powell was in the hot seat this morning in congress talking economy, rates and tariffs. While he see the economy as strong and the labor market solid, he says inflation is still above their 2% target.
They don't see any reason to be in a hurry to cut rates again and that is putting some moderate pressure on bonds and stocks.
Yields moved up and above some potentially key resistance if it holds. Meanwhile the US indices are struggling but remaining in their recent range.
The S&P 500 is still forming what looks like a bull flag, but it is a wide flag with room to fall if it can't breakout above 6100 again.
The small caps (dwcpf) gave up yesterday's gains and are testing the 50-day EMA again, which has held basically on a closing basis since mid-January.
The indices are holding up well despite this tariff shock to the global system, but it is not without its push and pull consequences adding some volatility to the mix.
They don't see any reason to be in a hurry to cut rates again and that is putting some moderate pressure on bonds and stocks.
Yields moved up and above some potentially key resistance if it holds. Meanwhile the US indices are struggling but remaining in their recent range.
The S&P 500 is still forming what looks like a bull flag, but it is a wide flag with room to fall if it can't breakout above 6100 again.
The small caps (dwcpf) gave up yesterday's gains and are testing the 50-day EMA again, which has held basically on a closing basis since mid-January.
The indices are holding up well despite this tariff shock to the global system, but it is not without its push and pull consequences adding some volatility to the mix.
Initial Fed reaction in Fed Funds Rate at the May FOMC meeting after this morning's hot CPI Report ...
There's now an 88% chance of no cut at all.
There's now an 88% chance of no cut at all.
Stocks are actually holding up rather well considering the unexpected increase in January's CPI inflation data. There's a lot of trading day to go so it's difficult to speculate if this bounce off the lows will hold, or if this is just a gap filling operation that will rollover again in the afternoon.
Small caps are the most impacted with those yields rising, which is justified, but is it possible that this is also just filling in an open gap from January? That could determine everything for the stock market going forward. Technically the yield is back to where it was in mid-December, and then again in early and late January, so this is a possible pivotal area.
Stocks are seeing some relief as I said, but that yield hasn't moved off those highs at all yet.
www.briefing.com
Small caps are the most impacted with those yields rising, which is justified, but is it possible that this is also just filling in an open gap from January? That could determine everything for the stock market going forward. Technically the yield is back to where it was in mid-December, and then again in early and late January, so this is a possible pivotal area.
Stocks are seeing some relief as I said, but that yield hasn't moved off those highs at all yet.
Briefing.com
www.briefing.com
The 10-year yield is reversing Wednesday's gain with a major pullback this morning, despite more inflationary data in the PPI report. This is kind of a head scratcher, but the stock market is going with it, rallying nicely to start the day.
There was a sharp spike in stocks after this headline came out: TRUMP TARIFFS WILL HAVE DELAY, MAY START APRIL 1
The I-fund (ACWX) continues to lead. It looks overly stretched but it has momentum.
BND (F-fund) is up 0.53% in early trading so the bond market volatility has picked up after yesterday's big loss.
Oil is down, bitcoin is down, and gold is up.
Trump will be announcing new tariffs at 1 PM ET.
There was a sharp spike in stocks after this headline came out: TRUMP TARIFFS WILL HAVE DELAY, MAY START APRIL 1
The I-fund (ACWX) continues to lead. It looks overly stretched but it has momentum.
BND (F-fund) is up 0.53% in early trading so the bond market volatility has picked up after yesterday's big loss.
Oil is down, bitcoin is down, and gold is up.
Trump will be announcing new tariffs at 1 PM ET.
Interesting flip side of previous post: The Transports are down sharply as that head and shoulders pattern for the right shoulder below the 50-day EMA.
This longer term charts is from today's market commentary:
This longer term charts is from today's market commentary:
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