tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

The market was expecting a more hawkish Fed, and after the policy statement was announced, the Fed may have been even a little more hawkish than those expectations.

They did cut the Fed Funds Rate by another 0.25%, but now they are down to perhaps two cuts in 2025 instead of 3 or 4.

Powell is set to hold his press conference shortly which may help with clarity, but the market's initial reaction is higher yields, new highs for the dollar, and stocks reversed the morning gains and replaced it with losses,

 

[tsptalk]

A big gap up opening, but after a huge loss like yesterday, the bears don't just go away. At least not initially. Look for the bears to put more pressure on but can they take out yesterday's lows? If they can't, the buyers will step up into the close.

If this wasn't a week before Christmas, I'd be more skeptical of any rally for a for a days, but eventually the calendar will favor the bulls and make the action less typical than if yesterday's sell off had happened in say, October.

 

[FAAM]

It's a quiet morning before this afternoon's Fed decision on interest rates, and more importantly, their outlook on monetary policy going forward. The chances of a rate cut are near 100%.

Stocks are mixed but near flat, yields and the dollar are up, but nothing significant, although the dollar is getting close to its 2024 highs again.

Sit tight. The fireworks will start at 2 PM ET.

Wow. Fireworks indeed yesterday's big drop. No more fireworks left for New Year's Eve celebrations... don't want anymore shows like that right now.

 

[tsptalk]

The lack of a spending bill gave the market a rough opening, but the PCE Prices and spending / income data helped ease inflation concerns for a day, and stocks are bouncing back from that weak open.

PCE Prices Actual: 0.1% B.com Forecast: 0.2% B.com Cons: 0.2% Prior: 0.2%	PCE Prices - Core Actual: 0.1% B.com Forecast: 0.2% B.com Cons: 0.2% Prior: 0.3%
Personal Income Actual: 0.3% B.com Forecast: 0.4% B.com Cons: 0.4% Prior: 0.7% Revised From: 0.6%	Personal Spending Actual: 0.4% B.com Forecast: 0.5% B.com Cons: 0.5% Prior: 0.3% Revised From: 0.4%

The charts have been doing some repairing. Neither the C or S fund charts have completely filled in their post election open gap, but support is trying to hold at key levels and the bulls are looking for a place to find some stability.

It's early and these gains could evaporate because the bears don't usually give up that easily, but the calendar is turning the bulls' way after the typical mid-December swoon, which went into another gear when the Fed got hawkish.

 

[tsptalk]

Nice rebound for stocks today, but there was some weakness as the day wore on taking the indices off their high. That may have been because we were heading into the weekend without a budget deal. But now...

Post in thread 'Government Shutdown and the TSP'

Dec 20, 2024

Government shutdown: House passes stopgap funding bill, sends it to Senate for vote

The House of Representatives approved a bipartisan bill to fund the government for three months and provide disaster relief and farm aid.

The vote caps off several days of chaos during which House Speaker Mike Johnson tried and failed to meet the demands of President-elect Donald Trump.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/20/government-shutdown-house-speaker-trump-vote.html

• tsptalk

• 

 

[exnavyew]

Nice rebound for stocks today, but there was some weakness as the day wore on taking the indices off their high. That may have been because we were heading into the weekend without a budget deal. But now...

Post in thread 'Government Shutdown and the TSP'

Dec 20, 2024

Government shutdown: House passes stopgap funding bill, sends it to Senate for vote

The House of Representatives approved a bipartisan bill to fund the government for three months and provide disaster relief and farm aid.

The vote caps off several days of chaos during which House Speaker Mike Johnson tried and failed to meet the demands of President-elect Donald Trump.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/20/government-shutdown-house-speaker-trump-vote.html

• tsptalk

• 

Just FYI:

The stock market loves Trump—but ‘crash protection’ is in high demand​

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/stock-market-loves-trump-crash-195646188.html

 

[tsptalk]

A very sluggish start to the holiday week as investors digest Friday's rally a bit. There are different variations of when the Santa Claus rally actually occurs. It starts this week but technically or officially, if there is such a thing as an official Santa Claus rally, it is the final 5 trading days of the year, and the first three of the New Year, so technically it doesn't start until tomorrow.

What's ironic about that is December 24, or Christmas Eve has had a negative average return over the last 30 years, according to sentimentrader.com's seasonality chart, and there have been more negative Xmas Eves than positive during that time.

That could be related to the wildly positive expectations over the years. When everyone knows or believes a day is going to be positive, who is left to buy that day? It's become a day to take profits.

But now that people realize that, maybe we should expect the opposite of the opposite.

Merry Christmas!

 

[nasa1974]

A very sluggish start to the holiday week as investors digest Friday's rally a bit. There are different variations of when the Santa Claus rally actually occurs. It starts this week but technically or officially, if there is such a thing as an official Santa Claus rally, it is the final 5 trading days of the year, and the first three of the New Year, so technically it doesn't start until tomorrow.

What's ironic about that is December 24, or Christmas Eve has had a negative average return over the last 30 years, according to sentimentrader.com's seasonality chart, and there have been more negative Xmas Eves than positive during that time.

That could be related to the wildly positive expectations over the years. When everyone knows or believes a day is going to be positive, who is left to buy that day? It's become a day to take profits.

But now that people realize that, maybe we should expect the opposite of the opposite.

Merry Christmas!

Isn't tomorrow a short trading day as well?

 

[tsptalk]

Yes, the market closes at 1 PM ET.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are behaving nicely on Christmas Eve, a day that hasn't been overly friendly to investors in more recent years.

The S&P 500 pushed above its 20-day EMA, an area that has been sticky the past couple of trading sessions.

Bonds are down sharply as yields continue to move higher.

Merry Christmas!

 

[evilanne]

Merry Christmas! So glad the site is back up!

 

[tsptalk]

Thank you! Merry Christmas!

 

[tsptalk]

A nice reaction to a weak open this morning, as the holiday bears continue to hibernate.

They're out there, and with trading volume light, they could have a presence, but the typical professional trader who might be shorting the market is not likely working much this week. Nor are investor selling to lock in profits. Tax selling is usually near complete by now or waiting for the new year to roll tax obligations over to 2025.

This is a general reason why stocks "tend" to do well this holiday week. Especially when there are large gains for the year.