tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

It's a quiet Friday in comparison to some of the events we have been going through. The election is over, the jobs report and other inflation data have been reported, the Fed cut rates, and Mag 7 is done reporting earnings until Nov 20 when Nvidia reports.

The question is, what can stop the bulls now, except for maybe excess bullishness?

There is certainly a set up for some backing and filling of open gaps, but the lower interest rates and new administration policies could be a turning point that has investors adjusting investment approach, so any gap fill could take a while as the dips get bought quickly.

If there is a hiccup I see that the dollar is up sharply pushing the I-fund into negative territory again. Lots of red in the European markets.

Oil is down sharply, and strength in the dollar has gold, silver and other metals down as well. Bitcoin is down slightly today but it is still near all time highs.

 

[tsptalk]

The S&P 500 just got within 0.32 of 6000, so it will likely hit it today. There's nothing overly significant about that number except maybe that it puts the index up 25% for the year.

Meanwhile the I-fund is getting clobbered again because of the rally in the dollar...

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are a little slow out of the gate this morning but certainly due for some kind of a rest.

The S and C funds have been en fuego this month, but the I-fund has been lagging quite a bit, and today is no different as the strength in the dollar is pushing the international fund down again today.

Yields are up and the market is adjusting to new economic policies coming next year. The lower interest rates may already be mostly priced in but we're not really sure how many cuts there will be, although their Fed Funds target is 3% or so.

Bitcoin is off a bit after the giant run up this past weekend. Oil is up slightly, as is silver, but gold is trading lower.

It's a slow day and that's not bad thing after the recent big gains.

 

[tsptalk]

I see yields are moving well off their lows and as a result, the small caps' big morning gains have diminished, and the large caps are catching up.

 

[nasa1974]

I see yields are moving well off their lows and as a result, the small caps' big morning gains have diminished, and the large caps are catching up.

Stinky day. two days in a row.

 

[tsptalk]

Yields are down slightly but the dollar is up again. Stocks are down modestly in this first 30 minutes of trading.

The I-fund is showing some strength despite another move up in the dollar. It is long overdue for a bounce and perhaps the 200-day EMA will help in the short-term?

The metals and bitcoin are all down this morning. Oil is up slightly as it flirts with a breakdown over a precipice from that head and shoulders pattern.

Powell speaks later today so there could be some volatility this afternoon.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks continue the pullback as concerns over fewer interest rate cuts gets priced in. The Nasdaq is currently taking the largest hit with a 1.7% loss, while the S&P 500 (C) and small caps (S) are down about 1% each.

It still seems like good old fashioned profit taking after a massive post election run. The open gaps are still quite apparent and could get filled, but I have been on the side that the large gap below 5800 will not get filled before dip buyers show up again, although this new out look on interest rates is something different.

Yields are up but the dollar is down a bit while commodities like oil, the metals and bitcoin are all fairly flat to start the day.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are starting the day on the slightly positive side with the C and S-fund charts once again flirting with, but holding near key support above the post-election day open gap.

Yields are also up, making it more difficult for stocks to rally, as investors price in the potential for fewer interest rate cuts than originally expected.

The dollar is modestly lower helping commodities like oil, the metals, and crypto-currencies rally this morning.

Tesla is up big, but Nvidia is down as they head toward their earnings report on Wednesday.

 

[tsptalk]

Busy morning for me. Sorry so late.

I see yields have finally broken the downtrend. Now this is a positive for stocks since it could mean we've seen a peak for now, but it could have something to do with the trouble with Russia, and that's not great news, but the market tends to take geopolitical events in stride.

Most indices are recovering from a negative open this morning. The Transportation Index had little support after getting ahead of itself and moving above 17,500 but holding at 17,000 would be a good sign as its retraced about half of the breakout candlesticks. Like the other charts, I didn't think the open gap would get filled this year, but I suppose a headline or two could change any outlook. For now, this market leader looks pretty good.

Russia-U.S. tensions hit global markets as Putin lowers the threshold for a nuclear strike

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/19/russia-us-tensions-hit-global-markets-as-putin-lowers-the-threshold-for-a-nuclear-strike.html

 

[tsptalk]

Yields and the dollar are up. Oil is up. Gold is up. Bitcoin is up. The only thing down right now (generally) is stocks as the major indices again retrace the recent trading range near key support.

The red boxes are open gaps and the blue boxes show trading ranges near support levels.

Investors are digesting many of the possible changes that will come with the new administration and the cabinet picks regarding tax cuts, tariffs, regulation, and deregulation. Some are inflationary. Some will boost growth. The focus now is who will be the next Treasury Secretary and head the IRS?

Target missed earnings expectations and was down over 20% in early trading, and of course Nvidia reports after the closing bell tonight.

 

[tsptalk]

Nvidia has been trading all over the place after reporting earnings last night. Right now it is down 1% after hitting an all time high just after the opening bell. This has the potential to be a nasty negative reversal top if it can't improve by the close, but there's a long way to go and there is some support being tested now. The rising wedge formation isn't very encouraging.

The S&P 500 has been riding that wave so far today as it filled the overhead open gap from last week, but that was the high of the day so far this morning, and it is flat right now. This isn't a bad looking chart at all, but can it hang in there if Nvidia ends up peaking today?

Small caps gapped up and are off their morning highs a well, but it is holding onto a solid gain at the moment.

The dollar is down slightly helping oil, gold, and other commodities rally today, and bitcoin is flirting with 100,000 this morning.

 

[tsptalk]

We're having a bit of a melt up once again after last week's pullback. At some point this post election rally will run out of steam, but t'is the season for stocks to do well.

The Nasdaq has been lagging and the small caps leading as we are in another wave of rotation out of large tech.

Bitcoin is up again and inching closer to 100,000. Despite the dollar rallying again, gold and oil are up as well this monitoring.

I'm not a gold bug by any means, but maybe I should have been. Did you know that gold has performed just as well as the S&P 500 over the last 20 some years? That means all of the returns created by all of the products, services, and innovation in the biggest and best companies in the US stock market over the past two decades, merely matched the return of holding a yellow rock.

 

[FAAM]

Yahhhh -- B & H "yellow-ish rock".
I have a little, but sure would have been easier & saved a lot of time - if you had only told me this outcome "20 some years ago" & I'd just invested in yee-ole-PM.

 

[tsptalk]

Yahhhh -- B & H "yellow-ish rock".
I have a little, but sure would have been easier & saved a lot of time - if you had only told me this outcome "20 some years ago" & I'd just invested in yee-ole-PM.

Of course once you notice a pattern, that's usually the end of it.

 

[tsptalk]

The bulls are quick to start buying this morning and tacking onto last week's 5-day winning streak. We have a new Treasury Secretary nominated and the bond market is applauding Scott Bessent's nomination with yields falling to start the week.

Small caps are again leading the way and big tech is lagging, but still positive.

The dollar is down helping the I-fund chart finally participate in a rally as it bounces off its 200-day average.

Gold, oil, and bitcoin are all down this morning, despite the decline in the dollar.

We'll get the PCE Prices inflation data on Wednesday.

 

[tsptalk]

We have a mixed start to the day as the Dow and small caps take much needed rests, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq move up modestly.

The S&P is hovering near the recent highs as profit takers battle the underinvested.

Small caps are down sharply digesting recent gains but also doing some house cleaning and filling in Monday's open gap.

Yields and the dollar are up adding to the pressure on small caps and the I-fund respectively, but tomorrow's PCE Prices report will give us more clarify on inflation and yields.

Gold and oil are up this morning while bitcoin continues its pullback off the all time highs.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are mixed after the PCE Prices Report. Small caps and the I-fund are up as yields and the dollar are down after the data, but big tech is dragging the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down to start the day. The Dow is up about 75 as of 10:30 AM ET.

The S-fund is holding onto a small gain and we have a pretty steady pattern going on of sharp rallies followed by consolidation, although the prior consolidation was a good sized pullback.

Oil is flat this morning while gold and bitcoin are rebounding from recent pullbacks.

The trading could get quiet but low volume markets can get pushed around by just a few big money players.

There's a half day of trading on Friday as the stock market closes at 1 PM ET.

 

[tsptalk]

I hope everyone is enjoying their Thanksgiving week. The stock market seems to be enjoying it today as we are seeing Wednesday's losses reversed. As I posted in today's commentary (and just realized I hadn't uploaded it yet, but it's there now.):

Since 1988 there have been 11 negative Wednesdays before Thanksgiving and the record on Friday after those negative Wednesdays is 9 positive days and only 2 down for the S&P 500.

It's early but it looks like that record will get better after today.

The dollar is flat but everything seems to be higher as if the dollar was falling today: Gold, silver, oil, stocks, bonds, crypto. It's all up today.

Early December may take on a different tone but for now, and maybe the first few days in December, the positive holiday bias is still working.

 

[Fit2bol]

Hi Tom, the TSP Plus Talk for Friday (Nov 29) haven't been posted yet. It still shows Nov 27. See the attach screen shot.

r/
Fit2Bol

 

[tsptalk]

Rats! Sorry about that. I'll upload it now.

I had noticed the public commentary wasn't uploaded. I should have checked the Plus report.