tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Yields and the dollar are down making a nice recipe for a little rally in stocks. They are pulling back from the morning highs, which is normal, but recently dip buyers have been right there to push them back up - climbing that wall of worry.

Bull flags are waving on the C and S fund charts but as I have been harping on, we have to be a little careful next week as it is one of the more bearish weeks of the year on the seasonality chart for whatever reason.

The F-fund and I-funds are leading - and I am still trying to understand why bonds are rallying (yields falling) with the economic data looking firm and inflationary data on the rise.

 

[tsptalk]

Busy day of trading today. 36 IFTs this morning in the AutoTracker.

 

[FAAM]

Busy day of trading today. 36 IFTs this morning in the AutoTracker.

IDK. Thinking a lot of those IFT's today were taking gains & going to shelter (or fishing for better funds/gains) before Holiday & next week's poor seasonality; and perhaps which CSIF I think all starting out looking like gains like yesterday - they hoped to end the day with their trade "selling high"... but didn't end that way as C, S & I results look fairly flat - but F had a fairly good up-day.
Now more than I ever thought before Jan. 2020 and then as of Nov. 2024 - I'm really even more thankful for the prior USA Presidents - ALL of them even, by contrast - ya-know. So, happy holiday (I'll buy a mattress and/or have a good stiff drink to that) !

 

[JTH]

Busy day of trading today. 36 IFTs this morning in the AutoTracker.

Maybe we go higher (we usually do)

Taking a breather on a 3-day Trump Weekend at the top of the channel, gives me 3 days to not concern myself with news-related events threatening Tuesday's open.

Incidentally... The Jan Low was on a Monday, as is the current Feb Low.

The Jan High was on a Friday (but closed down) every Friday since (the last 4) have closed down.

 

[tsptalk]

After strong overnight futures trading, the indices are mixed and perhaps directionless to start this holiday shortened week. The S&P is banging against the recent highs and investors are debating on whether to sell the top of the longer term range, or to get aggressive in anticipation of a breakout to new highs.

Small caps are leading despite yields moving slightly higher this morning. The I-fund is up again despite strength in the dollar.

Gold is off and running again to more new all time highs. Bitcoin has been floundering in the mid-90's all month. Oil is up but still trending lower.

Seasonality is not on the bulls' side this week, so be careful.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1890763092428231111

 

[tsptalk]

After Tuesday's suspicious close where the S&P 500 went from a loss to a new all time closing high in the final 10-minutes, stocks are struggling a bit to start Wednesday.

A new round of tariff threats from Trump and the ongoing DOGE reaction are being blamed, but we better get used to it. These won't make or break the market, which has been resilient in the face of the new changes, but while at all time highs, investors and money managers may be looking for a reason to pull some money off the table.

Yields and the dollar are up slightly. Oil, gold and bitcoin are up, and there's plenty of red in the European and Asian markets.

Seasonality remains an issue this week and it doesn't get too much better next week.

We'll get the FOMC meeting minutes at 2PM ET today, and the final Mag 7 earnings report comes out next week when Nvidia reports earnings a week from today.

 

[WorkFE]

After Tuesday's suspicious close where the S&P 500 went from a loss to a new all time closing high in the final 10-minutes

Hard to believe that 16 short years ago, on March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 closed at 676.53

 

[tsptalk]

Whether it was Walmart's earnings, new tariff talk, the threat of cuts to military spending, or just plain profit taking near the highs, we are seeing a pullback this morning. It's difficult to say if this is a buy the dip moment, or if something more serious is about to manifest, but after the recent run up to new highs, or in the case of the Nasdaq and small caps - hitting some resistance, this isn't too surprising.

I'm personally nibbling on some individual stocks that I have been watching, but the broader market may need a few days to decide what it needs to do here. The charts have been looking fine - maybe a little extended in the short term, but it has withstood some rapid fire changes in recent weeks and has held up well.

It's late February and we knew this was a rough patch for the market so again, we probably shouldn't be surprised that something like this has started.