JTH
Well-known member
Interesting how we filled the upper gap, but I don't like today's price action, just sort of feels like there's going to be a dump tomorrow...
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Interesting how we filled the upper gap, but I don't like today's price action, just sort of feels like there's going to be a dump tomorrow...
Feast or famine on Wall Street this week as stocks catapult higher this morning, adding to Wednesday's rally. Big tech leads after strong earnings from Crowdstrike.
Yields opened lower but just ticked up and are now flat. The dollar is down testing its 50-day EMA, and that's helping the I-fund again.
The current pattern on the S&P 500 (C-fund) looks quite similar to one in February, which preceded another modest pullback. Prior to that in February, we got an explosive jobs report that led to a big day for stocks on the 2nd.
The EFA (I-fund) gapped up to new highs for a second straight day. Japan was down sharply last night but it is another seas of green in Europe.
Oil is down, gold and bitcoin are up.
Yields opened lower but just ticked up and are now flat. The dollar is down testing its 50-day EMA, and that's helping the I-fund again.
The current pattern on the S&P 500 (C-fund) looks quite similar to one in February, which preceded another modest pullback. Prior to that in February, we got an explosive jobs report that led to a big day for stocks on the 2nd.
The EFA (I-fund) gapped up to new highs for a second straight day. Japan was down sharply last night but it is another seas of green in Europe.
Oil is down, gold and bitcoin are up.
Stocks opened higher this morning, and yields were slightly lower after the jobs report was released.
Why would stocks be up and yields down on a stronger than expected report? Probably one of two reasons, or both. Either the average investor is buying because the data looks strong, or I assume because Wall Street knows what's what.
You would think yields would be up on strong data, but is it strong? The odds of a rate cut from the Fed in June is up slightly on the news. That would only make sense if the data was weaker than expected.
I posted the info below in the jobs report thread. Sorry for the dup.
Why would stocks be up and yields down on a stronger than expected report? Probably one of two reasons, or both. Either the average investor is buying because the data looks strong, or I assume because Wall Street knows what's what.
You would think yields would be up on strong data, but is it strong? The odds of a rate cut from the Fed in June is up slightly on the news. That would only make sense if the data was weaker than expected.
I posted the info below in the jobs report thread. Sorry for the dup.
OK, they're not, anymore.
Looking for a possible downside target today or Monday? We do have an open gap (one of those "stealth gaps") just below 5110 from Thursday on the S&P 500.
JTH
Well-known member
OK, they're not, anymore.
Looking for a possible downside target today or Monday? We do have an open gap (one of those "stealth gaps") just below 5110 from Thursday on the S&P 500.
It was a curious observation, this morning the pre-markets were down slightly much of the session, then flipped over to green before the open. Since the pre-markets open at 10am (my time) I get to watch them almost every day. As of late they haven't flipped much, usually they pick a direction and stay with it.
I don't have the data for pre-markets, but I'd guess they've flipped over maybe 10 times over the past 90 sessions
The first 30 minutes of trading on Monday morning are doing just what Friday's negative reversal would suggest. That is, some follow through to the downside.
It's still early and it's a long day of trading, but we are seeing some cracks in the S&P 500 chart (C-fund). Prior cracks came back to repair themselves by the close. Does today feel different? The large open gap is about 2% below the current level.
The small caps (S-fund) are still above rising resistance and may be in better shape because of the 2-month long consolidation and breakout, and it is testing some key support levels this morning.
Asian and European markets are all red. Yields are flat, oil is down, Gold is flip flopping, and bitcoin is up to $72,000 this morning.
It's a quadruple witching expiration week, which has a bullish bias but can be volatile. We also get the CPI report tomorrow morning.
It's still early and it's a long day of trading, but we are seeing some cracks in the S&P 500 chart (C-fund). Prior cracks came back to repair themselves by the close. Does today feel different? The large open gap is about 2% below the current level.
The small caps (S-fund) are still above rising resistance and may be in better shape because of the 2-month long consolidation and breakout, and it is testing some key support levels this morning.
Asian and European markets are all red. Yields are flat, oil is down, Gold is flip flopping, and bitcoin is up to $72,000 this morning.
It's a quadruple witching expiration week, which has a bullish bias but can be volatile. We also get the CPI report tomorrow morning.
This could be the the determining factor for the rally to continue or not - especially for the I-fund's recent leadership; The UUP chart is rebounding from this month's sell off. If the 50-day EMA and the descending resistance line now hold, the stock market, and the I-fund, should do fine.
The monthly CPI Report came inline with estimates while the Core CPI was a tick higher than expected. This sent stocks higher initially but they quickly erased all of those gains before the relentless dipped buyers showed up again.
Bond yields are up on the data, but nothing that is concerning the stock market. Oil is up, gold, silver, and bitcoin are down as the dollar as the dollar was also up on the slightly stronger than expected CPI.
Both the 10-year yield and the dollar moved back above some key moving averages on the news, although the dollar is well off its initial high and trying to fill the opening gap already.
So far it looks like just another bounce off the 20-day EMA on the S&P 500, and the most recent pullbacks haven't even hit the average before the dip buyers showed up.
Oh, and the demise of Nvidia has been greatly exaggerated. It's up 5% this morning after a 2-day pullback.
Bond yields are up on the data, but nothing that is concerning the stock market. Oil is up, gold, silver, and bitcoin are down as the dollar as the dollar was also up on the slightly stronger than expected CPI.
Both the 10-year yield and the dollar moved back above some key moving averages on the news, although the dollar is well off its initial high and trying to fill the opening gap already.
So far it looks like just another bounce off the 20-day EMA on the S&P 500, and the most recent pullbacks haven't even hit the average before the dip buyers showed up.
Oh, and the demise of Nvidia has been greatly exaggerated. It's up 5% this morning after a 2-day pullback.
Today it looks like it's the small caps' turn to take the lead, despite yields moving high this morning. The S-fund is up 0.60% while the S&P is down slightly. Perhaps interest rates aren't the only thing on investors' mind these days?
The 10-year yield gapped above its' 50-day EMA while the dollar is down just slightly but it is starting to look like a failure at the 50-day EMA. Maybe it's too close to call at this point. The I-fund is flat to start the day.
It used to be Apple, but it's, as goes Nvidia, so goes the market. Nvidia is down 3% today weighing on the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Another down day here and it may start looking more toppy, although it is still above it's 20-day EMA so it's tough to get too bearish?
The 10-year yield gapped above its' 50-day EMA while the dollar is down just slightly but it is starting to look like a failure at the 50-day EMA. Maybe it's too close to call at this point. The I-fund is flat to start the day.
It used to be Apple, but it's, as goes Nvidia, so goes the market. Nvidia is down 3% today weighing on the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Another down day here and it may start looking more toppy, although it is still above it's 20-day EMA so it's tough to get too bearish?
OK, so we got another hot inflation number in the PPI report this morning. While we have talked about the market being a little less concerned about interest rates lately, this morning's move in the 10-year yield is getting a little serious as it flirts with the previous high, and seems to be trending higher.
The dollar is also up and this, combined with higher yields, is putting pressure on stocks to start the day, especially small caps. Gold and bitcoin are also down, while oil is up.
The dollar is also up and this, combined with higher yields, is putting pressure on stocks to start the day, especially small caps. Gold and bitcoin are also down, while oil is up.
Small caps are up moderately this morning, otherwise it's another sell off after the CPI and PPI sent yields higher and investors running. Big tech is leading on the downside although Nvidia is up over 1%.
The 10-year yield is up again and threatening making a higher high.
Oil and gold are down slightly this morning, while bitcoin pulls back further from its recent peak.
The 10-year yield is up again and threatening making a higher high.
Oil and gold are down slightly this morning, while bitcoin pulls back further from its recent peak.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) came running out of the gate this morning with Nvidia leading the way, and other AI news with Apple and Google working on a Gemini deal. With large cap techs taking center stage, it is once again the large cap C-fund getting the attention while the small caps and I-fund lag.
Small caps are under the weight of higher yields again this morning. The dollar is also up slightly this morning, putting some pressure on the I-fund and keeping the gain limited so far.
Oil is up this morning, gold is flat, and bitcoin is down.
Small caps are under the weight of higher yields again this morning. The dollar is also up slightly this morning, putting some pressure on the I-fund and keeping the gain limited so far.
Oil is up this morning, gold is flat, and bitcoin is down.
It's day one of the FOMC meeting and we don't usually get much info out of that. JTH put out some interesting stats on FOMC weeks HERE.
The early action has the S&P down modestly filling in Monday's open gap. The "stealth gap" is what I call the area from Friday's closing price (as opposed to Friday's high) up to Monday's low, so that is still open. The 15 day EMA has been holding and there's some wiggle room below today's low if it is going to test that again.
The S-fund (DWCPF) made a lower low yesterday but is off the lows, but now below that 30-day average. The negative reversal earlier this month does look "toppy" but a falling wedge can act like a bull flag so 1900 needs to hold.
Yields are down so maybe we do have a mini double top forming there.
The dollar broke above resistance to the I-fund may be left behind today.
The Nikkei was up last night, while European markets are mixed. Oil is up again, gold and bitcoin are down (bitcoin is off 7%).
The early action has the S&P down modestly filling in Monday's open gap. The "stealth gap" is what I call the area from Friday's closing price (as opposed to Friday's high) up to Monday's low, so that is still open. The 15 day EMA has been holding and there's some wiggle room below today's low if it is going to test that again.
The S-fund (DWCPF) made a lower low yesterday but is off the lows, but now below that 30-day average. The negative reversal earlier this month does look "toppy" but a falling wedge can act like a bull flag so 1900 needs to hold.
Yields are down so maybe we do have a mini double top forming there.
The dollar broke above resistance to the I-fund may be left behind today.
The Nikkei was up last night, while European markets are mixed. Oil is up again, gold and bitcoin are down (bitcoin is off 7%).
It's a slow start to a busy day for the market as the Fed's decision on interest rates looms. Stocks are slightly lower, but mostly flat. Yields are down a bit, but the dollar is up again.
Oil is down sharply, gold is up (despite strength in the dollar) and bitcoin continues to pullback.
These could all move wildly in a few hours when they release the policy statement.
Japan rallied last night and Europe is mixed although mostly flat.
Small caps are up slightly but the S-fund chart is trading above the descending resistance line this morning.
The Transports are also trading above some resistance this morning (see today's commentary for more on that key level) but it is just barely positive on this calm before this afternoon's potential storm.
Oil is down sharply, gold is up (despite strength in the dollar) and bitcoin continues to pullback.
These could all move wildly in a few hours when they release the policy statement.
Japan rallied last night and Europe is mixed although mostly flat.
Small caps are up slightly but the S-fund chart is trading above the descending resistance line this morning.
The Transports are also trading above some resistance this morning (see today's commentary for more on that key level) but it is just barely positive on this calm before this afternoon's potential storm.
The post-Fed rally resumed to start the day despite a few headwinds. Yields and the dollar up up this morning - perhaps back-filling some significant moves lower yesterday.
The US indices are at, or testing, previous highs but the I-fund is feeling the impact of the rally in the dollar and is only flat this morning.
The S-fund is touching new highs for the year, but is still off those 2021 highs.
Oil is down, gold and bitcoin are up.
The US indices are at, or testing, previous highs but the I-fund is feeling the impact of the rally in the dollar and is only flat this morning.
The S-fund is touching new highs for the year, but is still off those 2021 highs.
Oil is down, gold and bitcoin are up.
Stocks are down and backing filling in yesterday's open gaps to start the day. The indices look extended again as they tag their overhead, but rising, resistance lines. Whether the S&P comes back to test the 30-day average again, I don't know, but that's been the trend.
The 10-year Treasury Yield is down as it forms what could be a right shoulder, and the dollar is up making new highs for the year after the Fed driven sell off on Wednesday.
The Transports gapped up big on FedEx earnings, but they are off their highs and trying to fill the morning gap.
Japan was up last night, and Europe is mixed.
Oil, gold, and bitcoin are all down from the weight of the strong dollar.
The 10-year Treasury Yield is down as it forms what could be a right shoulder, and the dollar is up making new highs for the year after the Fed driven sell off on Wednesday.
The Transports gapped up big on FedEx earnings, but they are off their highs and trying to fill the morning gap.
Japan was up last night, and Europe is mixed.
Oil, gold, and bitcoin are all down from the weight of the strong dollar.
It's a holiday shortened week and that makes it vulnerable to a pre-holiday reversal from the trend. We see some weakness in the big three indices to start the day, but small caps are actually up.
Yields are up slightly but the dollar is down trying to fill in the gap it opened on Friday.
We have some strength in commodities with the dollar down as oil, gold and bitcoin are all up this morning.
Japan was down last night and Europe is mixed.
Yields are up slightly but the dollar is down trying to fill in the gap it opened on Friday.
We have some strength in commodities with the dollar down as oil, gold and bitcoin are all up this morning.
Japan was down last night and Europe is mixed.
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