JTH
Well-known member
It also makes it interesting to have a holiday weekend followed with a new Month. Then add to this the whole Easter based on the first full moon after the Spring Equinox, thing....
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tsptalk's Market Talk
- Thread starter tsptalk
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It also makes it interesting to have a holiday weekend followed with a new Month. Then add to this the whole Easter based on the first full moon after the Spring Equinox, thing....
Stocks are up this morning as dip buyers show up after the 2-day pullback. Yields are up, the dollar is flat to slightly lower.
The I-fund is leading on the upside was a gain of 0.44%.
We have oil down, gold is up, and bitcoin is holding steady near 70,000.
So far no negative reaction to the bridge collapse in Baltimore, but that is a major port being closed to vessel traffic.
It's a quiet week for economic data and it is a holiday shortened week as the first quarter winds down.
The I-fund is leading on the upside was a gain of 0.44%.
We have oil down, gold is up, and bitcoin is holding steady near 70,000.
So far no negative reaction to the bridge collapse in Baltimore, but that is a major port being closed to vessel traffic.
It's a quiet week for economic data and it is a holiday shortened week as the first quarter winds down.
Strong openings and weak closes has been the most recent trend, and we have a set up for another possible negative reversal day, but can the bulls change this trend?
Yields are down and the dollar is up so unsurprisingly the I-fund (EFA) is lagging to start the day, but all of the indices are higher and will struggle to avoid the afternoon sell-offs that we have been seeing in recent trading.
The repeating pattern looks promising for the bulls in early trading, but again it's the close that counts.
Gold is up while oil and bitcoin are down. Japan was up overnight and European markets are mixed with the FTSE down while the French and German markets are up.
Yields are down and the dollar is up so unsurprisingly the I-fund (EFA) is lagging to start the day, but all of the indices are higher and will struggle to avoid the afternoon sell-offs that we have been seeing in recent trading.
The repeating pattern looks promising for the bulls in early trading, but again it's the close that counts.
Gold is up while oil and bitcoin are down. Japan was up overnight and European markets are mixed with the FTSE down while the French and German markets are up.
FAAM
Active member
Tom... Noticed in your Daily Market Commentary, & often for other past days it seems, that for the EFA/I-fund you mention the open gaps -- as having seemingly equal magnetism or drawing equal weight for being Filled by the market as C & S funds. That doesn't seem congruent with the following: (1) TSP I-fund and the EFA are (I think) impacted more than C & S funds by fluctuations of the relative values of currencies, thus gaps much more common & not as important as other non-international stocks/exchanges; & (2) I didn't go back to check, yet I vaguely recall in years-past commentaries that you mentioned/explained what I discuss in "(1)" here.
... So, what do you think about this, about gaps for the I-fund in contrast with those of C & S?
... So, what do you think about this, about gaps for the I-fund in contrast with those of C & S?
I do agree with that. Good call!
The overseas trading makes for many more open gaps on the EFA and the dollar charts.
They probably don't get filled as frequently as our index charts, as you said, but if you do trade the EFA ETF, the reasoning behind the fills is still there. That is, if the gaps get filled, some traders / investors are made whole by the fill and tend to act - if that makes sense.
So if someone sold EFA back near the close on March 5, they may be reluctant to buy it again until it came back to that price. Once there (gap filled) those people may buy again and the support holds.
If someone bought that close, they may not buy more until it came back to that price, or they may put in a stop order in at that break even level.
So those are some reasons why gap analysis works.
The overseas trading makes for many more open gaps on the EFA and the dollar charts.
They probably don't get filled as frequently as our index charts, as you said, but if you do trade the EFA ETF, the reasoning behind the fills is still there. That is, if the gaps get filled, some traders / investors are made whole by the fill and tend to act - if that makes sense.
So if someone sold EFA back near the close on March 5, they may be reluctant to buy it again until it came back to that price. Once there (gap filled) those people may buy again and the support holds.
If someone bought that close, they may not buy more until it came back to that price, or they may put in a stop order in at that break even level.
So those are some reasons why gap analysis works.
It was a mixed open today with small caps leading and the Nasdaq and I-fund lagging so far, which is interesting since European markets are all up nicely, but Japan took a hit last night.
Small caps (S-fund) are up again but potentially nearing some resistance although, after the 3-day pullback earlier in the week, may have some sustaining power as we enter early April - one of the stronger seasonal periods of the year.
Bond yields and the dollar are mostly flat after a weaker than expected Chicago PMI report and a stronger than expected University of Michigan consumer sentiment report.
Oil, gold, and bitcoin are all up strongly this morning.
We have a 3-day weekend coming up in the market with the key PCE Prices report tomorrow despite the market being closed.
Small caps (S-fund) are up again but potentially nearing some resistance although, after the 3-day pullback earlier in the week, may have some sustaining power as we enter early April - one of the stronger seasonal periods of the year.
Bond yields and the dollar are mostly flat after a weaker than expected Chicago PMI report and a stronger than expected University of Michigan consumer sentiment report.
Oil, gold, and bitcoin are all up strongly this morning.
We have a 3-day weekend coming up in the market with the key PCE Prices report tomorrow despite the market being closed.
The positive overnight futures flattened out by the opening bell this morning, and a big jump in yields and the dollar is putting pressure on stocks.
I don't know exactly why yields are moving up (ISM was a little hot), but I have been talking about this inverted head and shoulders pattern forming on the 10-year, and it does suggest at least a retest of the 4.35% area, but these patterns typically breakout to the upside.
Small caps are not happy with higher yields and they are leading on the downside.
Japan was down last night and Europe looks green, but the rally in the dollar may keep the pressure the I-fund.
Gold and oil are up this morning despite the strong dollar, while bitcoin is down.
I don't know exactly why yields are moving up (ISM was a little hot), but I have been talking about this inverted head and shoulders pattern forming on the 10-year, and it does suggest at least a retest of the 4.35% area, but these patterns typically breakout to the upside.
Small caps are not happy with higher yields and they are leading on the downside.
Japan was down last night and Europe looks green, but the rally in the dollar may keep the pressure the I-fund.
Gold and oil are up this morning despite the strong dollar, while bitcoin is down.
It very early into Tuesday's session and the bears are growling. Yields are up again, breaking above the recent highs as there are now doubts about a June interstate cut.
The S&P and other indices gapped lower and some are quickly testing the recent wall of support that has been holding all year.
Europe is a sea of red while Japan closed slightly higher last night.
Gold and oil are up while bitcoin is down sharply.
The S&P and other indices gapped lower and some are quickly testing the recent wall of support that has been holding all year.
Europe is a sea of red while Japan closed slightly higher last night.
Gold and oil are up while bitcoin is down sharply.
Stocks are up early today after the two day pullback to start the month. Yields have ticked up again and the market may be trying to decide if a 4.4% 10-year yield is any worse than the 4.0% to 4.3% range it has been in while stocks were rallying the last few months.
The S&P and other index charts are dealing with the overhead gap from Tuesday. The same pattern played out in Feb - March and while it got a little choppy then, it worked out fine for the bulls. Can it repeat?
Gold, silver, oil, bitcoin are all up this morning, thanks to a second down day for the dollar, which may have broken some short term support.
The S&P and other index charts are dealing with the overhead gap from Tuesday. The same pattern played out in Feb - March and while it got a little choppy then, it worked out fine for the bulls. Can it repeat?
Gold, silver, oil, bitcoin are all up this morning, thanks to a second down day for the dollar, which may have broken some short term support.
A gap up open on Thursday morning is helping the indices to continue to bounce off of recent support. We'll see how aggressive these buyers remain as we head toward the close and into Friday morning's jobs report. Inflation has been a concern again with oil and other commodities rising lately, and a hot jobs market doesn't do the rate cut odds any good.
The gap (blue) on the DWCPF (S-fund) was filled while opening another below (red).
The dollar is down again helping pushing prices higher, and...
Yields are also down and the 10-year fills in a gap itself.
The jobs report estimates are looking for a gain of 200K to 210K jobs and an unemployment rate of 3.8%.
The gap (blue) on the DWCPF (S-fund) was filled while opening another below (red).
The dollar is down again helping pushing prices higher, and...
Yields are also down and the 10-year fills in a gap itself.
The jobs report estimates are looking for a gain of 200K to 210K jobs and an unemployment rate of 3.8%.
Stocks are up this morning after a beat on the jobs report and after yesterday's negative reversal and major melt down. Comments from one Fed member yesterday that rates may not have to come down this year slammed stocks on Thursday and this morning's strong jobs report may be giving that outlook more credibility.
It's not unusual to see stocks rebound in a strong market after big loss like we saw yesterday. The key will be whether it can hold into the close.
The bulls' argument is that the economy remains robust while the bears see that as reason to keep rates higher which could ironically cause a recession. This is why they play the game, as they say - whoever "they" are.
I'm on the road today so no charts but you'll see in today's commentary that yesterday's losses were not a run of the mill down day. Be careful.
It's not unusual to see stocks rebound in a strong market after big loss like we saw yesterday. The key will be whether it can hold into the close.
The bulls' argument is that the economy remains robust while the bears see that as reason to keep rates higher which could ironically cause a recession. This is why they play the game, as they say - whoever "they" are.
I'm on the road today so no charts but you'll see in today's commentary that yesterday's losses were not a run of the mill down day. Be careful.
Stocks are up this morning although the strength is mixed with small caps leading and the Dow and S&P 500 bouncing between positive and negative several times already in the first 30 minutes of trading.
Yields are up sharply again which makes it curious why the small caps are leading.
The chatter is that yields are now moving on economic strength and not inflationary concerns.
We get the CPI tomorrow so that may clear things up.
As I mentioned in today's commentary, the technical picture deteriorated after Thursday's negative reversal but the economic data and earnings season may end up telling a different story.
Yields are up sharply again which makes it curious why the small caps are leading.
The chatter is that yields are now moving on economic strength and not inflationary concerns.
We get the CPI tomorrow so that may clear things up.
As I mentioned in today's commentary, the technical picture deteriorated after Thursday's negative reversal but the economic data and earnings season may end up telling a different story.
Yields are down this morning in front of tomorrow's big CPI reading as the investment world braces for data on the inflation front.
Stocks opened higher but have backed off some as we generally see a fade of the opening move in the first 30 - 60 minutes of trading, so it's tough to gauge where it will end up.
The indices are still retracing last Thursday's negative reversal rally, so they are not out of the woods yet.
The dollar is down today again as well, but it may get some pushback here at the 20-day EMA, which has held often this year.
Japan was up last night and Europe is mixed.
Oil is down slightly, gold and silver continue to rally, bitcoin is down sharply after yesterday's big rally.
Stocks opened higher but have backed off some as we generally see a fade of the opening move in the first 30 - 60 minutes of trading, so it's tough to gauge where it will end up.
The indices are still retracing last Thursday's negative reversal rally, so they are not out of the woods yet.
The dollar is down today again as well, but it may get some pushback here at the 20-day EMA, which has held often this year.
Japan was up last night and Europe is mixed.
Oil is down slightly, gold and silver continue to rally, bitcoin is down sharply after yesterday's big rally.
Yields and the dollar shot up after the hotter than expected CPI report this morning. The 10-year is up to 4.5% and this could be a psychological level for the stock market - at least initially. The closer this gets to 5%, the more attractive the guaranteed return gets as an alternative to stocks.
The dollar is also making a new high for the year.
The S&P 500 is down 1%, which is not an avalanche, but the chart has shown some cracks recently. After falling below the impressive 15-day EMA (green), which is rolling over, it is now trying to hold the 30-day average (orange.)
Small caps are getting hit hard as we might expect when yields are jumping. It is testing its 50-day average this morning but the rising support line did break this morning.
The strength in the dollar is putting pressure on the the price of oil, gold, silver and bitcoin.
The dollar is also making a new high for the year.
The S&P 500 is down 1%, which is not an avalanche, but the chart has shown some cracks recently. After falling below the impressive 15-day EMA (green), which is rolling over, it is now trying to hold the 30-day average (orange.)
Small caps are getting hit hard as we might expect when yields are jumping. It is testing its 50-day average this morning but the rising support line did break this morning.
The strength in the dollar is putting pressure on the the price of oil, gold, silver and bitcoin.
A softer than expected PPI Report this morning took the overnight futures off some fairly low levels and into the green, but as the morning unfolded we are seeing more selling and a test of yesterday's lows. That needs to hold or another leg down would be expected. In the case of the DWCPF or S-fund, it is testing its 50-day EMA again.
The 2000 level could turn out to be a neckline of a head and shoulders pattern - we'll see how that develops.
Yields are finding no relief despite the less inflationary numbers this morning, and the dollar is making new highs again in early trading
Oil is down, gold and bitcoin are up.
Japan and Europe are seeing a lot of red in their indices.
The 2000 level could turn out to be a neckline of a head and shoulders pattern - we'll see how that develops.
Yields are finding no relief despite the less inflationary numbers this morning, and the dollar is making new highs again in early trading
Oil is down, gold and bitcoin are up.
Japan and Europe are seeing a lot of red in their indices.
The back and forth continues as the market dishes out alternating frustration for both the bulls and the bears. This morning stocks are down following Thursday's big rally. We have charts looking over the precipice of support which, if broke, could change the whole complexion of the stock market.
The S-fund is looking over that 50-day EMA, which...
... has been holding since just after the Fed meeting in early November when rate cuts appeared to be coming.
The dollar is up strongly again this morning so the I-fund is feeling some of that pain and dipped just below its 50-day average. It had been successfully tested a couple of times since its November breakout.
Oil is one of the culprits today as it has moved up $2.57 a barrel this morning to 87.59 as tensions in the Middle East rise. Gold is also up big on the new inflation concerns.
The S-fund is looking over that 50-day EMA, which...
... has been holding since just after the Fed meeting in early November when rate cuts appeared to be coming.
The dollar is up strongly again this morning so the I-fund is feeling some of that pain and dipped just below its 50-day average. It had been successfully tested a couple of times since its November breakout.
Oil is one of the culprits today as it has moved up $2.57 a barrel this morning to 87.59 as tensions in the Middle East rise. Gold is also up big on the new inflation concerns.
Stocks opened sharply higher this morning but have since given back some of those gains as yields are rising and the dollar is up again.
Israel fended off an attack by Iran and the market was showing some relief. Also retail sales and Goldman Sachs earnings came in better than expected.
The 10-year yield gapped up and this has the small caps lagging again as the S-fund is currently negative while the C-fund is holding onto a modest gain, but fading. The I-fund (EFA) is up big early.
Gold and oil are down. Bitcoin is up after a volatile weekend of trading.
Israel fended off an attack by Iran and the market was showing some relief. Also retail sales and Goldman Sachs earnings came in better than expected.
The 10-year yield gapped up and this has the small caps lagging again as the S-fund is currently negative while the C-fund is holding onto a modest gain, but fading. The I-fund (EFA) is up big early.
Gold and oil are down. Bitcoin is up after a volatile weekend of trading.
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