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Tuesday's reaction to the CPI has "repaired" or cleaned up as most of the gaps that were opened have now been filled.

Yields and the dollar are down sharply, also repairing their charts. The 10-year has retraced the big breakout candlestick and the dollar (UUP) filled its gap, and now both of those charts have new small open gaps overhead.

Japan and European markets are up and the dollar's weakness is helping push the EFA (I-fund) up nearly 1%.

The weaker dollar is also pushing up the price of oil and natgas, gold and silver, and the ctryptos, although bitcoin has been rallying with or without the dollar's help recently.

The S&P filled its open gap, and the S-fund gapped up and is trading above the recent closing highs. This may be where we find out if small caps are finally ready to take the lead.

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Another inflationary pricing report sent yields and the dollar higher, and that puts pressure on stocks. That's the initial reaction on the Friday before a long holiday weekend. Yesterday the bulls built up momentum as the day wore on so we'll just have to wait and see it the dip buyers show interest again, or is this inflation pressure going to kill the rally?

The 10 year yield is up after finding support at the neckline of an inverted head and shoulders.

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The dollar is playing "fill that gap" as it gaps up or down almost every day, then fills it in a day more later. The latest gap is now just below the current level at 28.15.

The S&P hit yesterday's high and rolled over so that 5030 area has been stubborn.

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Small caps are down but already off their lows after testing and holding at the top of Thursday's open gap. But it's early.
 
Yields and the dollar are down this morning, and stocks are mostly lower although the weak dollar is helping the I-fund to a nice gain.

Small caps are lagging despite the lower yields as that fickle S-fund remains quite volatile.

The S&P 500 is still struggling at the double top and is trying to hang onto the rising trading channel(s) and the 20-day average.
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The I-fund is making a new high for the year with the help of a possible break down in the dollar. The channel broke this morning although it remains above its 20-day EMA so it's tough to say UUP is bearish while it's above it.
 
Both yields and the dollar are fairly flat to start the day but stocks are still digesting some recent gains near the recent highs. We'll get the Fed Meeting Minutes released later today and that could be a market mover, but I haven't seen hype around a company's earnings like tonight's Nvidia release, in a while. Nerves are high as it seems the rally depends on this report, which is of course concerning if that's the only thing the market can hang its hat on right now.

So part of me is concerned that the market rally needs this report to continue, but I am also leery that the market will do what everyone expects, and the selling into the earnings tells us what many may be expecting.

Small caps are lagging again during this week's pullback. The I-fund has been leading, although Germany just lowered their GDP expectations. Of course we live in a world where the only thing that seems to matter (beside Nvidia's earnings) is which way interest rates are going, and a lower GDP may help Germany to lower their rates so their stock market is up today. :suspicious:
 
Well, Nvidia pulled it off. They beat estimates enough to justify its recent parabolic (too early?) rally and gapped up big again today. The rest of the market is on board with that as the indices were in limbo below recent highs looking for the next catalyst.

It's still early but no signs that this gap up is being sold, but it is a gap and that leaves open pockets below. The 5050 area had some resistance so it would be bullish to see it close above that level.

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The VIX (fear gauge) gave the market a scare recently but it's gapping down today and well back within its trading channel. The issue here however, is that the S&P keeps making new highs yet the VIX hasn't made a new low all year. That's not a great combination.

Small caps and the I-fund are up but not to the extent of the big tech led large cap indices. The Japanese Nikkei was up 2% last night.

Yields are near flat, and the dollar is up, yet oil is up, as are the metals gold and silver. Bitcoin is also rallying.
 
Nvidia stole the show. The market seemed ready for some kind of a pullback during this typically bearish half of February, but it was resuscitated. Small caps continue their uphill battle and can't seem to hold new 2024 highs, but the I-fund is making, and holding onto new highs right now with Japan up another 2% last night, and Europe a sea of green. The S&P (C) of course is also being driven to new highs. There's open gaps below on all three charts so the question is whether this move was a gap and go, or will we be revisiting some of those gaps next week?

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Bond yields are down so the F-fund is up some this morning, the dollar is flat so far, oil is down sharply, gold is up a few bucks, while silver and bitcoin are down.
 
New all-time highs for the Equal Weighted S&P 500 Index this month, but it too is getting stretched above the trading channel.

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Yields are down slightly, the dollar is flat and we're seeing small caps are leading this morning. The I-fund is also outperforming the C-fund to start the day, and that's good news for those looking for rotation out of large caps without negatively impacting the broader indices. Japan was flat last night but the European markets are a sea of green.

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The Dow is down, the Nasdaq is up and the S&P is flat. Oil, gold, and bitcoin are all up this morning with bitcoin hitting $57k.
 
Another rather slow day on Wall Street in front of this week's PCE report. Yields are down, the dollar is up, and stocks are flat to mostly lower, but hanging in there while digesting recent gains. The S&P is due for some kind of pullback but small caps have based nicely and are trying to outperform with the S-fund up slightly at the moment.

Oil and the metals are mostly lower, and Bitcoin blasted through $60K today.

Japan was down last night and European stocks were mixed.

The second estimate of the Q4 GDP came inline with estimates at +3.2%.

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We are seeing some bullish action after the favorable PCE Pricing, Income and Spending data.

It's early, but the C-fund is breaking its recent pullback downtrend, the S-fund is making a new high for the year, and the I-fund is banging against its all time highs.

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Europe and Asian markets are mixed. Oil is flat, gold and bitcoin are up.

Yields (10-year) and the dollar are down, and look at the F-fund trying to make a move...

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Stocks open the new month with another rally. We know there is a tendency for the start of a month to be positive because of new money coming into the market, but the flip side of that is the new month, new direction possibility. The latter however, doesn't always start on the 1st because of the new money, so Monday or Tuesday may be a bigger test.

JTH posted the other day that March has a pretty good record (75% win rate) when both January and February are positive, so the bulls have that going for them. The bears are looking at the extended S&P 500 chart, the gov't shutdown deadline, the debt bubble, to name a few, but those are more macro and the bulls have the current market momentum on their side.

Japan and European markets are all green. The 10-year yield is down, the dollar is down, both favorable to the stock market. Oil is back over $80 a barrel and breaking out to a new 4-month high which is bad for gas prices, but a possible good sign for the economy.

Bitcoin is down but still over $61,000.
 
Yields are up and the dollar is down to start the morning trading. Small caps are leading with a healthy gain while the big three indices (Dow, S&P, and Naz) are all down.

Japan was up last night and Europe is mostly red.

Oil is down and NatGas is up big, while gold, silver, and bitcoin are all up nicely.

It's Monday so the VIX has a little strength, but today's 3% bounce is conveniently coming after it retested the long rising support line and the bottom of an open gap.

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As mentioned in today's commentary, this week has a negative seasonal bias - as it is on the list of the "Nasty 7" weeks of the year.
 
Yields gapped lower this morning sending bond prices higher. Remember when stocks liked when yields were down? Not today. The dollar is also down and the I-fund is trying to hold onto a small gain while US stocks decline.

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US stocks are pulling back and we know about the open gaps below, and that could be the destination, but watch for support levels to get tested which may hint the extent of the pullback. The large open gap is below 5000 and a possible target if the bleeding doesn't stop soon.

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The S-fund has broken a short term support line but remains in the larger uptrend, but the next support levels are uncomfortably lower.
 
The S&P 500 and other indices back retracing yesterday's losses already, and attempting to fill the gaps left open. These little one and done sell offs are becoming common. probably designed to scare the little guy out, I don't know. But they are odd. The 20-day EMA is holding, and like in late January, this week's decline didn't even make it there.

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Bond yields are down slightly and the dollar is down big so oil, gold, silver crypto are all up big.
 
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