tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

We're seeing a nice little rebound today, but the Transports and small caps are lagging badly again today. That's not good.

 

[tsptalk]

That's exactly how I feel.

No PROBLEM - your in the Tube, Tom go man go!

 

[tsptalk]

The leaders are lagging again. Makes me nervous.

 

[crws]

makes me wonder if we've hit the S Fund ceiling, and now the shift to Big Caps for sustained earnings is what we are seeing.
After "The Jobs Report" - looks like a little shine came off more than the Apple.
On the other hand, could just be da boyz horse trading back and forth for some bull churn.

 

[JTH]

Transports weekly showing this weeks action is set to erase the previous 6 weeks price action. That's how it works, we take the stairs up, then the big boys flush us down the elevator shaft. Don't fear (yet) we've retraced 38.2% off the November pullback and I feel this is a good place to establish a floor, should the bull market continue. For our long-term players, hold steady above 4,666 as the line in the sand.

View attachment 10494

 

[crws]

Transports weekly showing this weeks action is set to erase the previous 6 weeks price action. That's how it works, we take the stairs up, then the big boys flush us down the elevator shaft. Don't fear (yet) we've retraced 38.2% off the November pullback and I feel this is a good place to establish a floor, should the bull market continue. For our long-term players, hold steady above 4,666 as the line in the sand.

View attachment 10494

based on your prior Jan. experience, are you inclined to get defensive earlier than later?

 

[JTH]

based on your prior Jan. experience, are you inclined to get defensive earlier than later?

I've been parked in G since January 11th, so I have no dog in this fight. Across the American Indexes we are still within an acceptable pullback, with exception being the Transports have retraced a bit more, but this is to be expected, she is always such a drama queen exaggerating everything she does.

An initial scan tells me this market is holding up well, neither a bottom nor top have been confirmed, whatever position I were in, I'd hold.

 

[crws]

I've been parked in G since January 11th, so I have no dog in this fight. Across the American Indexes we are still within an acceptable pullback, with exception being the Transports have retraced a bit more, but this is to be expected, she is always such a drama queen exaggerating everything she does.

An initial scan tells me this market is holding up well, neither a bottom nor top have been confirmed, whatever position I were in, I'd hold.

that's the conclusion I came to, eventually. Time will tell.
Thanks

 

[tsptalk]

Heading into the weak seasonality period, and having booked a 5% gain in Feb, I'm raising 40% cash (G) today. Still 60% in stock funds.

 

[clester]

Heading into the weak seasonality period, and having booked a 5% gain in Feb, I'm raising 40% cash (G) today. Still 60% in stock funds.

Awesome returns. Contrats! Good move.

 

[mick504]

The market remind me of driving a car....almost out of gas and trying to make that next hill....ooooooooooooooooooooh! I'm out!

 

[tsptalk]

Every time you think its out of fuel, someone puts more gas in the tank.

 

[Bquat]

Every time you think its out of fuel, someone puts more gas in the tank.

Today you gassed up and a neighbor sucked the gas out when you parked, but he was nice enought to put a little back in so you can make it back to the station for more.

 

[tsptalk]

Maybe its a hybrid market? We're just getting more gas mileage.

 

[Gumby]

Heading into the weak seasonality period, and having booked a 5% gain in Feb, I'm raising 40% cash (G) today. Still 60% in stock funds.

Maybe you should start a premium service?

Great job!

 

[Handballer]

I consider this as a free premium. Thanks Tom.

Maybe you should start a premium service?

Great job!

 

[tsptalk]

Heading into the weak seasonality period, and having booked a 5% gain in Feb, I'm raising 40% cash (G) today. Still 60% in stock funds.

If I had an IFT left I might be nibbling here but I would be watching the support levels. I don't like that the S&P has fallen below 1327. I think that means the 20-day EMA is the next target near 1316 (< 1% from current levels). If that doesn't hold then I would prefer to raise more cash as the 50-day EMA is about 3% below that.

 

[JTH]

If I had an IFT left I might be nibbling here but I would be watching the support levels. I don't like that the S&P has fallen below 1327. I think that means the 20-day EMA is the next target near 1316 (< 1% from current levels). If that doesn't hold then I would prefer to raise more cash as the 50-day EMA is about 3% below that.

Thanks Tom, I'm liking the 1309 level based on a 50% retrace from the recent top to the Jan swing low, and the shelf we have here. If I were invested I'd want this level to hold.
View attachment 10651

 

[hessian]

Perhaps a most indicative chart. Are the Transports still one of the main market indicators? Check out that volume! (among other parameters like the widening BBs, also pSAR). :blink:
View attachment 10652

 

[tsptalk]

Perhaps a most indicative chart. Are the Transports still one of the main market indicators? Check out that volume! (among other parameters like the widening BBs, also pSAR). :blink:

In a word -oil. Oil is a major factor for the Transports for obvious reasons. If the move up in oil was a temporary emotional reaction, then the worst may be over for the Tranports. However if oil continues higher, it will eat away at their earnings potential and when the cost of transporting goods goes up, there will likely be a chain reaction into other industries.