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tsptalk's Market Talk
- Thread starter tsptalk
- Start date
I'm not much of a candlestick interpreter. The one I do know is the reversal candlestick (those upside down T's). What I will look for is whether we move below the early Nov highs tomorrow. Basically, we either get a white candlestick tomorrow, or we break below the highs and we have a failed breakout.
Both the early rally and late sell-off were news driven so where we were "supposed" to start and end up without that info, I don't know. Perhaps a low volume 3-pt drop in the Dow and small gains in the other major indices, which is where we ended up.
Both the early rally and late sell-off were news driven so where we were "supposed" to start and end up without that info, I don't know. Perhaps a low volume 3-pt drop in the Dow and small gains in the other major indices, which is where we ended up.
Bullitt
Well-known member
Some additional ugly divergences look to be in play here. MACD, Sto, RSI are diverging, but finally the A/D Line is showing a negative here. This is the first time I've seen it diverge negatively in many months, but hey, who cares? Santa Rally, QE2, bullish earnings and allegedly good retail numbers will probably completely abort this warning anyway.
View attachment 10292
View attachment 10292
Very interesting. I bought the VIX (VXX) to protect my SSO position in case of a down turn this week, yet both were up on Monday, and both remain up with an hour to go today.
I'm not complaining, but I did not expect that.
fedgolfer
Well-known member
i'm bullish med & long term, drops from flat tops aren't usually too severe. I'm hoppin' back in soon and currently trading ETFs within the flat top channel. which ever way she breaks, she'll make us money. I would not be surprised to see the Fed attempt a huge gap up to make this flat top the higher base from which we work off of in 2012, after all, that is the purpose of QE2.
I'm raising 30% cash (G-fund) for Thursday. I can't believe I held out this long. I am considering starting 2011 in 100% G, but not sure yet. The 1st and/or 2nd trading day in January can be wild. This week's sentiment survey and what happens between now and Friday will help make the decision.
I sure wish I knew for sure what the TSP is doing on Friday with transactions... http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=8993
I sure wish I knew for sure what the TSP is doing on Friday with transactions... http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=8993
Viva_La_Migra
Well-known member
I jumped back into the market again at 100%, which is a good contrarian indicator for everyone else.
JTH
Well-known member
I've been watching the currencies, the Dollar has been making a turnaround to the downside, with the exception of the British Pound. I haven't flipped the I-Fund over to a buy, but it does appear to be bottoming out building support.
Tom, you go ahead and keep that cash on the sidelines. Next year my goals will be simple, beat everyone and every system on the tracker.
Tom, you go ahead and keep that cash on the sidelines. Next year my goals will be simple, beat everyone and every system on the tracker.
Thanks for the warning, but I have been the best contrarian indicator this year.I jumped back into the market again at 100%, which is a good contrarian indicator for everyone else.
I know, if I decide to go 50% stocks / 50% G, I'll just do the opposite. Oh, wait.
Good luck with that. But with this momentum, I'll be looking to buy a pullback to the 20-day EMA or hopefully the 50-day EMA. I won't be on the sidelines very long.Tom, you go ahead and keep that cash on the sidelines. Next year my goals will be simple, beat everyone and every system on the tracker.
How's that for a contrarian long-term sell signal?
JTH
Well-known member
Hey I already owe you a coffee cup, and you wouldn't take it. What's next pink slips?
JTH
Well-known member
Good luck with that. But with this momentum, I'll be looking to buy a pullback to the 20-day EMA or hopefully the 50-day EMA. I won't be on the sidelines very long.
How's that for a contrarian long-term sell signal?
Shoot for the stars, land on the moon I say. It's a long marathon and I'm just staring to get warmed up at mile number 3. If my projections are true, this year is going sideways and all these trending indicators are going to be shown their flaws. Oscillators may rule the 2011, I still have reservations about the reliability of sentiment within volatile trading ranges.
I think that is when sentiment works best. It's the relentless moves higher (2009) and the lower (2008) that give the problems.I still have reservations about the reliability of sentiment within volatile trading ranges.
Give me a sideways moving market with 10% rallies and 10% corrections, and I think the sentiment survey will be at it's best.
hessian
Member
Any thoughts on how the last hour, and especially the last 15 minutes today played out?
Basically the Dow was up around 40 pts all day, then dropped in the last hour, especially the last 15 minutes, to end only up 10 pts. The S&P500 and NASDAQ both lost about 3 pts in the last 15 minutes, with the S&P to finish up only about a point.
The S&P closed at what seemed its low of the day, and below 1260, something that may be an important level?
The NASDAQ and the EFA for the day was a very similar in their last 15 minute drops.
- Wondering if any news hit, or maybe was leaked (re: tomorrow morning's claims/housing numbers?).
Basically the Dow was up around 40 pts all day, then dropped in the last hour, especially the last 15 minutes, to end only up 10 pts. The S&P500 and NASDAQ both lost about 3 pts in the last 15 minutes, with the S&P to finish up only about a point.
The S&P closed at what seemed its low of the day, and below 1260, something that may be an important level?
The NASDAQ and the EFA for the day was a very similar in their last 15 minute drops.
- Wondering if any news hit, or maybe was leaked (re: tomorrow morning's claims/housing numbers?).
The very light trading volume makes it very easy to push the market around. I do not put as much weight on it as if it happened on a "normal" day.
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