tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

It's possible that the inverse relationship between the dollar and the U.S. indices is ending, but more likely, the dollar looks like it may want to rally, which will cool things off in the stock market. The dollar still needs to close above the 20-day EMA (77.28) to give us any sign of being bullish, and it is trading just above that area (77.44) right now.

 

[fedgolfer]

Dollar repatriation will occur at some point in this rally and catch most people off guard, we gotta watch the charts because the Fed isn't going to advertise it like they did QE2.

 

[JTH]

The I-Fund is down 2.53% this month, a stark contrast to the C-Fund's 3.10% and the S-Fund's 4.01%. With a little help from EFA & a dollar snap back, that could be one hell-of-ah ride on the I-Fund train. That's not a play I'd dare make myself, it'd take a very well timed IFT...

MTD Price performance chart:

View attachment 10200

 

[tsptalk]

First crack. The 20-day EMA is next. We could see a bounce off of it, but since it has already done so several times in this rally, I suspect the 50-day EMA could be next - but from a technical point of view, the bull market continues! Just a pullback. I'm stepping aside for now (which means Monday should be a good day for stocks ).

 

[JTH]

15 minute chart: The Transports are showing additional strength over the NASDAQ, S&P 500 & S&P 600, retracing over 50% of this pullback.

View attachment 10214

 

[JTH]

And just like that, 3 months worth of gains erased in 7 days...

View attachment 10215

 

[Birchtree]

The Fed wants mom and pop out of the bond market - pushing them into risk assets so they can feel the wealth effect to stimulate spending and growth. The Fed wants higher stock prices and they will do whatever is necessary to get them - let the bulls run.

 

[crws]

no mercy!
well, I suppose it is possible that this round of bank buyoffs will be enough to alleviate the balance sheet shortages, but time will tell if it is enough for the banksters to start re-investing in John Q Public via consumer loans.
If it's a fine line, they will stay with investing back to the Fed and running their trading desks to the max thru the end of the year...
I suspect we will find out when/if "QE3" starts getting airplay.

 

[JimmyJoe]

no mercy!
well, I suppose it is possible that this round of bank buyoffs will be enough to alleviate the balance sheet shortages, but time will tell if it is enough for the banksters to start re-investing in John Q Public via consumer loans.
If it's a fine line, they will stay with investing back to the Fed and running their trading desks to the max thru the end of the year...
I suspect we will find out when/if "QE3" starts getting airplay.

Bankers went bonkers and sure sucked up that QE2 cash quick.

 

[JTH]

"yawn" although this is a good place to find support, we are watching this months gains walk out the door...

View attachment 10217

 

[tsptalk]

I'm rolling the dice and buying in again this morning.

 

[JTH]

I'm rolling the dice and buying in again this morning.

You're braver than me, I'm waiting for confirmation the uptrend is willing to continue. It's not my preference, it's a "I have 1 IFT left to buy 15%" thing.

 

[tsptalk]

It was a tough decision, for sure. If we were allowed more IFT's I would have moved in more slowly. Can't do that anymore.

 

[Birchtree]

May I offer you a tight pair of sticky pants to help your strategy.

 

[tsptalk]

I don't know what that means.

 

[Birchtree]

Sticky pants are useful when you have problems sitting tight on a position.

 

[JTH]

Sticky pants are useful when you have problems sitting tight on a position.

Are those the same sticky pants you used back in 2008?

 

[Birchtree]

Yes sir - still gott'em. Holding long in 2008 was the correct choice for me. Holding the asset base and dollar cost averaging were the redeemers for future gains.

 

[robo]

There are those who believe that QE2 and many other government actions will save the global financial markets, and those like top corporate insiders who know better.

--Steven Jon Kaplan

http://www.truecontrarian.com/

 

[Steadygain]

There are those who believe that QE2 and many other government actions will save the global financial markets, and those like top corporate insiders who know better.

--Steven Jon Kaplan

http://www.truecontrarian.com/

Unemployment around the world has begun a multi-year increase which will persist for several more years.
In every past era of stagnation dating back to the late 1700s, the dividend yield on any major basket of U.S. largecap equities has exceeded 6.0%; it reached only 3.5% at its highest point in early March 2009.

Thanks for posting this. I'm actually kind of amazed this news hasn't received greater attention. The truth is there is NO WAY -- 3/09 should have been the turning point.
I would think 'has begun' is paramont to understanding the overall picture.