tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

As long as D.C. doesn't call the big tech companies on the carpet in the interim. The inv. H&S has a target of about 290 - 293.

 

[tsptalk]

The S&P 500 weekly chart looks nice with a solid move back above the Feb. high this week.

I think 3400 is now the line in the sand support, meaning it needs to hold or "top" talk will come back.

 

[tsptalk]

Wow, so much for a no bond market, no banks, quiet holiday trading day.

Boom!

 

[papahotel66]

Man if the TSP had been open today I think I would have made like Steve Miller's Billy Joe and Bobby Sue...

 

[tsptalk]

The S&P is giving back a modest amount of Monday's gains today. Meanwhile the small caps (S-fund)and Naz 100 are holding up pretty well so far, trying to hold onto Monday's gains.

 

[tsptalk]

Lots of interesting technical analysis going on in this chart of the high yield debt market.

The top of the range held, an open gap was filled, the prior high is trying to hold as support, and the rising support line (unsustainable angle) has broken.

 

[tsptalk]

Temporary road block? The resistance is rising, however.

 

[tsptalk]

 

[tsptalk]

Second open gap filled. Channel broken. 3425 would be test of the neckline of inv. H&S.

 

[tsptalk]

S-fund gaps...

 

[tsptalk]

Pullback resistance has been broken on many charts this morning. However, as we saw on Thursday, the close is more important than the early action.

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar is down sharply today helping the small caps and I-fund but something is dragging the s&p 500 down... apple and amazon are both in the red, so...

 

[tsptalk]

Second open gap filled. Channel broken. 3425 would be test of the neckline of inv. H&S.

As the inverted head and shoulders pattern plays out nicely on the S&P 500 chart, we have another nice one on the HYG High Yield Fund. If it acts as an inv. H&S tends to, we could see some continued churning in the right shoulder for a couple of weeks, then maybe a breakout after the election? As goes HYG, so goes the stock market.

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar is the tell. The H&S is basically an upside down S&P 500 chart, and looks bearish for the dollar. A hold here at the neckline would be bearish for stocks. A breakdown would likely be bullish for stocks.

 

[tsptalk]

Transports: Here we go again - another test of the flat top.

 

[bmneveu]

Putting in work on the charts today! Nice finds.

 

[tsptalk]

Breakdown in the dollar. When the dollar is down, asset prices in dollars tend to go up.

So, stocks up today, gold up, silver up, bitcoin up, copper up, oil down?

 

[tsptalk]

The morning movers...

10-year Treasury yield hit 8.5% for first time June for 1st time in almost 5 months.

The dollar bounced to fill the oen gap, and test the bottom of the H&S neckline. Resistance "should" hold.

The Russell 2000 small caps index is leading the U.S indices.

 

[tsptalk]

The market as a whole is doing well this morning, but there's something keeping it from being obvious. Intel

The S&P is up and potentially breaking out from its bull flag, but INTC is a drag.

But checkout the Equal Weighted S&P 500 Index...

And the internals...

And even the Russell 2000 small caps index...

Possible breakout out day, but it's early. Headlines and the large caps indices being taken down by INTC could scare investors.

 

[tsptalk]

Huge week for earnings coming up and possibly make or break for the Nasdaq with most of FAANG reporting, which has been leading the market rally for years.

There's always a possibility of a sell the news reaction even if the numbers are good, but the Nasdaq has been struggling in recent weeks, and sell the news reactions tend to come after stocks have been rallying, so...

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