tsptalk's Market Talk

[bmneveu]

Huge week for earnings coming up and possibly make or break for the Nasdaq with most of FAANG reporting, which has been leading the market rally for years.

There's always a possibility of a sell the news reaction even if the numbers are good, but the Nasdaq has been struggling in recent weeks, and sell the news reactions tend to come after stocks have been rallying, so...

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I'm tracking Microsoft Tuesday, and FB GOOG AAPL AMZN Thursday. Massive day Thursday as that's about $5T in market cap for just those 4 companies, not including all the other companies reporting earnings that day. If they are all after the bell, it'll make for a crazy Friday.

 

[tsptalk]

Early indications: Yields are down, sending financials stocks down, and those small bank stocks in the Russell 2000 that what were doing so well last week when yields were rising, are playing give-backs today.

All three of these charts are being pushed back into a formation they broke out of last week. Nothing bearish yet as the formations are still leaning bullish, but the failed breakouts aren't very bullish.

The eagerness, or lack thereof, of the dip buyers may be the tell later today.

 

[tsptalk]

HYG had a failed break out, then today it may be breaking down from what looks like a small bear flag. Interesting support and bounce at the low. If that is a bear flag, it could have further to fall. If 84.25 can hold, it's a possible double bottom low for this pullback.

 

[tsptalk]

The bulls aren't doing much today to follow through on yesterday's attempted reversal, but the 50-day EMA is still trying to hold.

Same with the HYG credit market ETF...

 

[amoeba]

The dollar is down sharply today helping the small caps and I-fund but something is dragging the s&p 500 down... apple and amazon are both in the red, so...

Simply put, volatility peak @33 just a bit more prolonged than back on 9/3....I believe it's fear of uncertain guidance such as CAT earlier today, but that's not tech....which I think will be quelled when these, other, majors report an a couple days; probably earlier (like before today's close, as I indicated on the ETF thread). The last thing people will give up on is buying the latest smart phone. It's like legal coke.

Or the sky will fall, ^VIX will rocket up to 40+, and so on. I doubt it, but I won't be turning off my computer today.

 

[tsptalk]

Welcome to the latest October surprise...

 

[nasa1974]

I guess we had to fill the gaps eventually.

 

[tsptalk]

S-fund gaps...

 

[tsptalk]

It's difficult to trust a rally in a downtrend like we're in but bonds are confirming it after the strong economic data this morning.

-GDP came in at +33.1%
-Initial claims were 12,000 lower than expected
-Continuing claims were down about 750,000 from last week.

Stocks up, yields rallying, and bond prices down on the news.

 

[tsptalk]

2016:

 

[tsptalk]

Nasdaq futures are 4%. S&P 500 up over 1%.

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[weatherweenie]

I seem to remember the S&P 500 futures being down 5-6% on election night, 2016.

Nasdaq futures are 4%. S&P 500 up over 1%.

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[tsptalk]

Just when you thought you understood the markets... Interesting day. No winner, yet stocks soaring again?

It looks good for Biden (I know it's not over :27 but I think the Reps holding the senate means fewer potential changes for Wall Street? That's my guess.

 

[rangerray]

That was my question in my account talk.

 

[tsptalk]

To make today even more interesting, bonds are rallying / yields dropping on this election story.

Why would yields fall? I can only think of a couple of reasons at the moment.

1) If Biden is declared the winner, he is more likely to shut down the economy over COVID, and taxes in general would rise for corporations and higher income individuals. That could slow down growth.

2) With the Reps looking like they will hold onto the Senate, stimulus is not a guarantee, so more concerns for the economy.

And this is what the bond market is doing. Yields are on top, bond prices below...

 

[tsptalk]

Yields are popping back up to fill that large gap.

The high yield bond fund is trying to hold onto Thursday breakout above inverted had and shoulders pattern.

 

[tsptalk]

Potential failed breakout started...

The high yield bond fund is trying to hold onto Thursday breakout above inverted had and shoulders pattern.

 

[tsptalk]

 

[tsptalk]

 

[tsptalk]