tsptalk's Market Talk

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Before the noon deadline, the market looked to be in decent shape, trying to break away from key support levels. Then reality comes back hard in the afternoon as we learn, big surprise, that there is no impending stimulus deal. The market closes well off its highs and suddenly the near-term character of the market doesn't look so solid heading into the new month. I was trying to decide whether or not to raise a little more cash today on a free IFT but the pre-noon market convinced me to hold off. The post-noon market made me wish I had skimmed off another 25%.

This is your periodic reminder that I hate the TSP noon deadline with every ounce of my soul.
 
It's hard to find a single positive headline in the news (financial) these days. Actually I saw one positive headline regarding wages and 3rd quarter GDP on CNBC.com, but when the page refreshed, it was gone. How is the average investor supposed to decipher these headlines and still consider investing their money? You'd think they'd be burying cash in their backyards.

Perhaps the constant bad news is a good contrarian indicator, because you would think that the market has baked all this in already?

Obviously the main headline Wall Street waiting on is the stimulus package.
 
Small caps are flying today. Is the gap a distant memory, or will a "no deal" on stimulus have it revisit the gap?

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Some early catalysts...

Credit market up, but at resistance. The dollar is down sharply. Bond yields are up sharply, but at resistance.

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$TYX (30 year yield) closed above the August high today. Also closed above the 200 DMA for the first time in what looks like a few years.
 
Early observations: If the Transports closed here, it would be a new all time closing high.

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The financial (XLF) is moving back above its 200-day EMA, after yesterday's failure.

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Did anyone get lucky and put in a buy order yesterday morning before the tank?

Congrats on a great (and lucky) fill! :35:

Just don't blink. :blink: :D
 
The VIX dropped to the bottom of the 25 - 30 range this morning, then popped right back above the 200-day EMA.

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Is it time for the Nasdaq 100 to start again?
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Looks like a bull flag break out today. Basically an inverted head and shoulders breakout, with the bull flag as the right shoulder.

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