With some many fully in the market Monday, you'll be getting a lot of attention if the crash happens. What signals triggered your thinking of an apparent multi day drop? Are you seeing institutional investment changes today and yesterday?
I hope I will not disappoint anybody by saying that am not looking at the external forces that seem to be driving the market these days (the dollar going up/down, institutional buying/selling, Cramer, CNBC, window dressing, end of the quarter, etc.). I am just looking at patterns and trends. The technical analysis basic concept is that the market has already factored in most of the external forces into its pricing. So the task is to determine the behavior of the market and to profit from it. I look patterns from the data collected and make an effort to predict where the market is going based on the patterns. The market has trends, behaviors, laws, etc. that if they are identified it would make it easier to see where the market is going. When analyzing the TSP funds I spend most of the time looking at prices, time frames and interactions between the funds. I have been my worst enemy when making my IFT's. In many instances the patterns were given clear indications of where to go but I was convinced otherwise by rumors, all the jitters going on and by the believe that I knew better because I have many years of experience day trading and swing trading the market. I have a good size TSP account and and when a fund goes down $0.10 I feel it. And it hurts when it happened because I had gone against the patterns. The time to minimize the pain is here. Some of the moves now might appear as if they are going against the crow. The truth is that when it happens it is just a coincidence. There will be times when I will be going against the common consensus and taking a negative hit all alone. It has happened already and it will happen again. However, I am determined to continue sitting on my hands and only hit the "Enter" key when the graphs and the trends say so.
As for Monday we are parked in the G-Fund because that's where the graphs and the trends are pointing to. I have gone into details of interpreting the charts posted at
www.tspgo.com but not much has been said about the trends.
Several projections for each fund are followed. Only four of each fund are charted and the graphs can be found at
www.tspgo.com. The most weighted trends have been posted here a couple times already. The most recent ones are:
10/01/07 = For => 10/02/07 ==> F(1)61 ==> G(6) ==> I(1)61 ==> F(1)46 ==> F(5)48 Pointing to: F
10/02/07 = For => 10/03/07 ==> I(3)100 ==> I(1)60 ==> G(6) ==> F(1)46 ==> I(1)57 Pointing to: I
10/03/07 = For => 10/04/07 ==> C(6)75 ==> C(7)45 ==> I(1)60 ==> S(6)72 ==> I(1)57 Pointing to: S&I
10/04/07 = For => 10/05/07 ==> F(2)57 ==> I(5)65 ==> G(7) ==> F(1)46 ==> S(6)72 Pointing to: S
10/05/07 = For => 10/08/07 ==> F(1)61 ==> I(1)60 ==> S(5)51 ==> G(7) ==> I(1)57 Pointing to: I
10/08/07 = For => 10/09/07 ==> C(6)75 ==> I(1)60 ==> I(1)61 ==> I(5)74 ==> C(7)73 Pointing to: I
10/09/07 = For => 10/10/07 ==> F(1)61 ==> I(1)60 ==> I(1)61 ==> I(5)74 ==> F(5)48 Pointing to: I
10/10/07 = For => 10/11/07 ==> I(3)67 ==> I(1)60 ==> C(5)47 ==> F(1)46 ==> I(1)57 Pointing to: C/I
10/11/07 = For => 10/12/07 ==> F(1)61 ==> I(7) ==> I(1)61 ==> I(5)74 ==> I(1)57 Pointing to: I
10/12/07 = For => 10/15/07 ==> C(2)50 ==> G(6) ==> G(7) ==> F(1)46 ==> F(5)48 ==> Pointing to: G
The projection for Monday October 15, 2007 reveals that six vectors are pointing to the F-Fund and two vectors are pointing to the C-Fund. At a glance it seems that the odds are in our favor if we go to the F or the I-Fund. The discouraging part is that the probability is .5 or less (probability range: 0-1). The goal is to go with probabilities of .56 or higher. We are going to miss some good moves. That's OK. When it happens, we will remember that to limit the risk is more important than to maximize profit.
I hope that the above answers your question.
Thank you for visiting.
