Tspgo_com Account Talk

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TSPGO, I know we've talked about this before. And I thought I had it figured out. But, based on today's FV, I think I'm wrong.

My thoughts: If the I fund gained 1% on the chart at the bottom on the TSPtalk home page, then if the US dollar was down in the overseas exchange rate market, then the gain posted by Tom in the middle of the TSPtalk home page will be higher than 1%.
AS it turned out today: The I fund showed 1.06% gain on the chart at the bottom of TSPtalk home page. I checked the exchange rate for the EURO, the #, the Yen, Australia, etc, and they were all down. But the posting on Tom's home page showed only .39% gain.
Is my thinking just reversed of what really happens? It looks that way based on todays results! I'm confused.
Thanks for your help!
 
crhuss said:
TSPGO, I know we've talked about this before. And I thought I had it figured out. But, based on today's FV, I think I'm wrong.

The I fund showed 1.06% gain on the chart at the bottom of TSPtalk home page. I checked the exchange rate for the EURO, the #, the Yen, Australia, etc, and they were all down. But the posting on Tom's home page showed only .39% gain.
Click to expand...

I am confused about this FV stuff too - more than a 50% adjustment? And it is supposed to be fair?
 
I'll try my best to help. But I know nothing about FV.
Follow this scenario day by day and you'll see a different angle.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Friday (10/12) YTD difference between the TSP(I) and EFA was +.27%
TSP(I) closed at 25.84 x .27% = +.07 tsp cents.;)

Note: I don't know if thats FV, but i do know that a single cent difference
is what all TSP Funds strive for, staying under double digits,.10,.23

Mon. (10/15) The EFA got hit with a lose of .81%, however, the TSP(I)
only lost .39%. This increased the diferences between
the two, to a whopping +.70% or +.18 tsp cents (BAD):mad:

Note: This double digit difference can not continue for long. They MUST
maintane some kind of consistancy, after all, they do track one another.
But When does it end ? The answer, it won't be long.

Tue (10/16) The EFA got hit with a lose of 1.54%, however, the TSP(I)
only lost 1.36%. This increased the diferences between
the two +.88% or +.22 tsp cents (BAD):mad:

Note: If the differences rise into the twenty tsp cent range, it will rarely
go another day without making up for the large difference which was due
to Fee's, The Dollar, The Euro, The Yen. etc...

Wed (10/17) The EFA gained 1.06%, however, the TSP(I) only gained .39%
This drove the difference back down to levels it MUST & WILL
maintane. Specifically, the YTD difference is now .21% or +.05
TSP Cents (Single Digits);)

My friend, I don't use this information to predict gains/loses. But if I want
to go into the stock funds, it would play a big part in my decision as to
which fund I'd rather be in. One that MUST make up a difference OR one
that is within a single digit difference. I hope this help you a little.
Like I said, I know nothing about FV, but I do track the differences closely
 
benitocj said:
I am confused about this FV stuff too - more than a 50% adjustment? And it is supposed to be fair?
Click to expand...

We have several experts on the subject matter. They have explained the concept several times in detail . They would not mind doing it again. I believe 350Z wrote the book on FV's. It will be a good idea to get a hold of him.

I use a very simple spreadsheet (see attached) to calculated the FV's.
I take the value of the S&P, the EFA and DOW at 11:30 am as the base price. A change of + or - 0.51% or more from the base of the S&P, EFA or the DOW seems to be a good indicator of an FV. If two of them are above this threshold the FV is almost certain.

My experience is that what the market does before 11:30 am appears to have no bearing on FV's. Except that a significant change (up or down) before 11:30 am tend to be followed by a reversal in the in the afternoon which most likely will trigger an FV. Also, it is almost always true that an FV will be followed by a correction of the same magnitude the following trading day.

Hope this helps!
 
crhuss said:
TSPGO, I know we've talked about this before. And I thought I had it figured out. But, based on today's FV, I think I'm wrong.

My thoughts: If the I fund gained 1% on the chart at the bottom on the TSPtalk home page, then if the US dollar was down in the overseas exchange rate market, then the gain posted by Tom in the middle of the TSPtalk home page will be higher than 1%.
AS it turned out today: The I fund showed 1.06% gain on the chart at the bottom of TSPtalk home page. I checked the exchange rate for the EURO, the #, the Yen, Australia, etc, and they were all down. But the posting on Tom's home page showed only .39% gain.
Is my thinking just reversed of what really happens? It looks that way based on todays results! I'm confused.
Thanks for your help!
Click to expand...

It seems you are concentrating too much in too many things. Just keep in mind that FV's are triggered by what the USM (United States Market) does after the OSM (Over Sea Market) closes. If you concentrate on the USM behavior, specially the DOW and the S&P, after 11:36 am you get an idea of what to expect. Please click on this link below to read what I do.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=123191&postcount=544
 
squalebear said:
I'll try my best to help. But I know nothing about FV.
Follow this scenario day by day and you'll see a different angle.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Friday (10/12) YTD difference between the TSP(I) and EFA was +.27%
TSP(I) closed at 25.84 x .27% = +.07 tsp cents.;)

Note: I don't know if thats FV, but i do know that a single cent difference
is what all TSP Funds strive for, staying under double digits,.10,.23

Mon. (10/15) The EFA got hit with a lose of .81%, however, the TSP(I)
only lost .39%. This increased the diferences between
the two, to a whopping +.70% or +.18 tsp cents (BAD):mad:

Note: This double digit difference can not continue for long. They MUST
maintane some kind of consistancy, after all, they do track one another.
But When does it end ? The answer, it won't be long.

Tue (10/16) The EFA got hit with a lose of 1.54%, however, the TSP(I)
only lost 1.36%. This increased the diferences between
the two +.88% or +.22 tsp cents (BAD):mad:

Note: If the differences rise into the twenty tsp cent range, it will rarely
go another day without making up for the large difference which was due
to Fee's, The Dollar, The Euro, The Yen. etc...

Wed (10/17) The EFA gained 1.06%, however, the TSP(I) only gained .39%
This drove the difference back down to levels it MUST & WILL
maintane. Specifically, the YTD difference is now .21% or +.05
TSP Cents (Single Digits);)

My friend, I don't use this information to predict gains/loses. But if I want
to go into the stock funds, it would play a big part in my decision as to
which fund I'd rather be in. One that MUST make up a difference OR one
that is within a single digit difference. I hope this help you a little.
Like I said, I know nothing about FV, but I do track the differences closely
Click to expand...

I would not spend too much time looking at the EFA as a source of information to determine if we are getting FV's. It is the least reliable of the the three. (S&P, DOW and EFA). I would use it mostly as an extra piece of information to confirm the DOW and/or the S&P.
 
squalebear said:


..Like I said, I know nothing about FV, but I do track the differences closely
Click to expand...


Squalebear: Very good observation. It would be interesting to know who follows who. In your tracking have you noticed if the I-Fund is following the EFA or the EFA follows the I-Fund?. If you can identify the follower then you might have something to your advantage that may increase you chances of making more profitable IFT's. e.g. If the I-Fund follows the EFA then when the I-Fund is ahead it is time to get out of the I-Fund. When the I-Fund is behind then is time to get in. What do you think?
 
Need more on FV's? Go to this link: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=3111

tspgo_com said:
We have several experts on the subject matter. They have explained the concept several times in detail . They would not mind doing it again. I believe 350Z wrote the book on FV's. It will be a good idea to get a hold of him.

I use a very simple spreadsheet (see attached) to calculated the FV's.
I take the value of the S&P, the EFA and DOW at 11:30 am as the base price. A change of + or - 0.51% or more from the base of the S&P, EFA or the DOW seems to be a good indicator of an FV. If two of them are above this threshold the FV is almost certain.

My experience is that what the market does before 11:30 am appears to have no bearing on FV's. Except that a significant change (up or down) before 11:30 am tend to be followed by a reversal in the in the afternoon which most likely will trigger an FV. Also, it is almost always true that an FV will be followed by a correction of the same magnitude the following trading day.

Hope this helps!
Click to expand...

Need more on FV's? Go to this link: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=3111
 
tspgo_com said:
Squalebear: Very good observation. It would be interesting to know who follows who. In your tracking have you noticed if the I-Fund is following the EFA or the EFA follows the I-Fund?. If you can identify the follower then you might have something to your advantage that may increase you chances of making more profitable IFT's. e.g. If the I-Fund follows the EFA then when the I-Fund is ahead it is time to get out of the I-Fund. When the I-Fund is behind then is time to get in. What do you think?
Click to expand...

Tspgo_com,
The MSCI EAFE INDEX appears to be the start of all things. The closest
I'm able to figure, the EFA looks to reflect the MSCI by grouping the same
stocks into an EFT. The I-Fund does the same thing and looks to reflect
the same returns as the Index. However, the only two EFT's that can be
looked at during the day for tracking purposes are the EFA and VEA. The
VEA claims to have lower fees then the EFA, so their returns are slightly
different. In short, the I-Fund / EFA and VEA are all followers of the Index.
Intraday trading of the EFT's gives me a general idea how well my I-Fund
"may" be doing. That makes it fun for me. The tracking of the differences
between them, helps towards making my decision when I do an IFT.
Your thoughts and comments are most appreciated! Like Your Site Too !
:D
 
TSPgo and Squalebear, Thanks for the information, I am learning all the time. This one is pretty complicated though. I like your thread and site as well.
 
Originally Posted by tsptalk

I am looking into buying a second license for an additional message board that can only be accessed within the premium services area. Subscribers can discuss the premium services, ask questions, etc. ..
Click to expand...

Maybe a whole new separate website for the premium services would do the trick. It would keep the "vintage" ones from trying to sort through all the mixed messages and the subscribers from wondering if they are releasing privileged information.

Just a thought..
Click to expand...


Posted here http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=123547&postcount=14
 
Lobo said:
... I retire in July 2008, and still want to handle my own money in the TSP.

This brings up a quick question. Is it possible for me to draw a monthly amount out of the TSP during my retirement and continue to "manage" the remaining amount in my TSP, so that I could hopefully make more in my investment than I'm withdrawing??

Lobo
Click to expand...

Yes. You can.

That's is precisely my plan. I will request from TSP a 10% withdrawl/year to be divided in 12 months. If I get at least 12% earning per year (it does not seem to be an impossible task) the value of the capital will remain intact. Any thing above 12% will be more gravy in the pot.

For more in TSP withdrawal options read Nancy's article at
http://www.tspgo.com/tspgoretirement.htm

Hope this information helps.
 
HR: What's Ahead ..

HR: What's Ahead ..

Mon 22/Oct 07 = For => Tue, Oct 23, 07 ==> Pointing to: G
Moving from I to G for one day!

Best Wishes to all!
 
The projection for today was to go to the I-Fund. However, the +FV ghost is hanging over us again. S&P respected the 1490 support once more. Expecting a rebound tomorrow. Looking to be out for Friday.
 
tspgo_com said:
The projection for today was to go to the I-Fund. However, the +FV ghost is hanging over us again. S&P respected the 1490 support once more. Expecting a rebound tomorrow. Looking to be out for Friday.
Click to expand...

At 12:20pm the SPX is still below the 50 day MA, but that may change this afternoon. The talk on CNBC from talking heads say this is a buying opportunity. "Add to your position." :confused: This could be a shake out the weak bulls move.

View attachment 2356

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=SP500
 
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